LNP 3.43%
Incumbent MP
David Kempton, since 2012.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Cook covers all of Cape York and extends to the northern fringe of Cairns. It includes the towns of Port Douglas, Mossman and Cooktown, as well as all of Cape York and the Torres Strait Islands.
History
A seat by the name of Cook has existed since 1876, except for one term in the 1950s. The seat has been held by the ALP for most of the twentieth century.
The seat was first won by the ALP in 1915, when Henry Ryan won the seat. The Country Party’s James Kenny won the seat in 1929 and held it until 1935. The ALP’s Harold Collins won the seat in 1935. He held it until Cook was abolished at the 1950 election. He moved to the seat of Tablelands, which he held until 1957.
Cook was restored at the 1953 election, when it was won by the ALP’s Bunny Adair. He left the ALP to join the anti-communist Queensland Labor Partyin 1957. He then became an independent in 1963, and held the seat until 1969.
The ALP’s Bill Wood held the seat from 1969 to 1972, followed by Edwin Wallis-Smith, also from the ALP, from 1972 to 1974.
The Country Party’s Eric Deeral won the seat in 1974 and lost it in 1977.
Bob Scott won the seat back for the ALP in 1977 and held it until 1989. Steve Bredhauer held the seat from 1989 to 2004, serving as Minister for Transport from 1998 to 2004. Bredhauer was succeeded in 2004 by his electorate officer Jason O’Brien.
Jason O’Brien was re-elected in 2006 and 2009. In 2012, O’Brien was defeated by LNP candidate David Kempton.
Candidates
- Daryl Desjardin (Greens)
- David Kempton (Liberal National)
- Jason Booth (Palmer United)
- Michaelangelo Newie (Independent)
- Lee Marriott (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Billy Gordon (Labor)
Assessment
Cook was held by Labor continuously from 1977 to 2012. If there is a big pro-Labor swing, Cook should return to Labor.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Kempton | Liberal National | 8,832 | 37.51 | -4.90 |
| Jason O’Brien | Labor | 7,634 | 32.42 | -13.63 |
| Lachlan Bensted | Katter’s Australian | 5,261 | 22.34 | +22.34 |
| George Riley | Greens | 1,295 | 5.50 | -1.15 |
| James Evans | One Nation | 524 | 2.23 | +2.23 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Kempton | Liberal National | 10,563 | 53.43 | +5.67 |
| Jason O’Brien | Labor | 9,205 | 46.57 | -5.67 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Cook have been split into three parts. Polling places in Douglas Shire have been grouped together as “Port Douglas”. Those booths on the Cape York Peninsula have been grouped as “North”, and those to the south of Port Douglas have been grouped as “South”.
In addition to the usual special votes (absentee, postal, pre-poll, etc), over 2000 voters in Cook cast votes using “mobile teams” – mostly in remote indigenous communities. These voters have been analysed separately.
The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote and won the seat, but were outpolled by Labor in the north and in the mobile team vote. The LNP primary vote ranged from 32.3% on the mobile team vote to 48.3% in Port Douglas.
The Labor vote ranged from 19.7% in the south to 61.2% in the mobile team vote.
Katter’s Australian Party polled strongly, and polled roughly twice as much as Labor, and almost as much as the LNP, in the south. The KAP vote ranged from 3.2% in the mobile team vote to 37.1% in the south.
The LNP won two-party-preferred majorities of 63-66% in the south and Port Douglas. Labor won a solid 57.8% majority in the north and a huge 65.2% majority for mobile teams.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| North | 32.44 | 46.56 | 14.92 | 42.23 | 5,879 | 24.97 |
| South | 37.22 | 19.74 | 37.10 | 63.29 | 5,860 | 24.89 |
| Port Douglas | 48.32 | 20.63 | 18.30 | 65.70 | 4,081 | 17.33 |
| Mobile Teams | 32.27 | 61.17 | 3.18 | 34.80 | 2,045 | 8.69 |
| Other votes | 37.18 | 28.99 | 24.61 | 55.30 | 5,681 | 24.13 |
A poll released by The Cairns Post had the LNP in front in this seat. That really surprises me. You would think with a decent swing heading Labor’s way they’d be able to pick up a seat which had a long history of being Labor and takes in Aboriginal communities. I honestly don’t get it but from my time living in Cairns, I did notice the seats up there can sometimes be won and lost on their own local issues.
The South East will swing heavier than the rest of the state. I also think the swing will be having in Townsville than Cairns.
As for Cook’s labor history, I think Entsch at a federal level has done a lot of work through Cape York and this state member has also done so. On top of this the Premier, the Police Minister, the Health Minister in particular have spent plenty of time here.
on top of this the Wild Rivers legislation has strong support up here, Cooktown hospital has had birthing returned to it, plus some of the policy positions regarding alcohol in aboriginal communities has resonated.
My conclusion is Cook will have one of the smallest swings in the state. Barron Rivers is more vulnerable. Cairns should have a big enough margin but it is a huge question mark as there is a large housing commission bit of the electorate, yet the LNP has made a huge push to clean up youth crime in inner cairns. Will get more into it in that electorates thread.
Current Sportsbet prices: ALP 1.09 and LNP 10.00.
Just a couple of comments made by ‘Rudd for PM’ that are worth noting.
Firstly, any of these regional polls published are polls usually tend to be very accurate at the end of the day. If this is the case, then I can’t see the ALP winning Cook, Barron River and Cairns for that matter. All of these seats are ranked 8, 22 and 20. If you can’t win what seems like an easy seat such as Cook, then it will be a 2nd term Campbell Newman Government for sure.
Secondly, in regional seats such as Cook, as well as other regional seats, you choice of candidate can be the difference between winning (and retaining) the seat or otherwise. Just have a close look at the record of Warren Entsch in this seat, which also includes Cairns and Barron River.
Well said Angus. I think Labor will have absolutely no trouble holding Mulgrave, Curtis Pitt is by far the most popular state MP in the far North. Barron River is the last seat you’d expect Labor to pick up, it’s the usually the seat Labor wins when they are doing well and already hold the other 3 up there. However, again the local candidate factor. Labor are running a strong candidate in Barron and Trout has been somewhat as a failure, plus many of the tourism operators and enviro’s live in that seat. It’s not out of the question that Labor win Barron with a big swing but don’t pick up Cook or Cairns (Cairns once being a Labor heartland seat.)
Sorry but I have to completely disagree that regional polling is extremely accurate. People in the country are more politically aware and it’s where individual circumstances matter as opposed to going with the trend. Also electorates with distinct ends where the LNP 2PP ranged from 42 to 62 makes it difficult to poll. I agree with candidates are crucial and it’s hard to argue that labor doesn’t have a good candidate and can easily strengthen labors vote in the North which the LNP will struggle to maintain
Doubtful about polling in this electorate with its large remote indigenous population. Labor’s candidate is indigenous.
I feel sportsbet are going to be paying out some hefty sums IF people are smart on election night. Some of the odds for the LNP in seats like this and Cairns are ridiculous.
The Australian describes Gordon as one of Labor’s strongest candidates in the state. Labor would be feeling good about winning this seat
Gordon was the ALP candidate for Leichhardt at the last federal election and despite losing 56-44 after preferences, actually polled quite strongly in booths which make up Cook. In fact, according to the AEC data, Gordon received 52.43% of these 13493 votes on a two-party preferred basis.
The slight issue I see here is that there are parts of Cook which aren’t in Leichhardt, but actually Kennedy – the areas around Mareeba. In the last federal election, the ALP polled 18% at the Mareeba booth, which will be one of the largest booths in Cook.
I’ve heard mixed reports from polling on this seat. The margin is definitely achievable for Labor but apparently polling is suggesting one of the smaller swings in the state for Labor here. Saw a poll in The Cairns Post which suggested it was the seat, out of the FNQ ones, Labor was polling worst in. Said they were a better chance in Barron River either. That was October when the Newman Gov were at their low point. Things have improved for them since then.
ALP gain, but with one of the smaller swings of the night. Mareeba and Douglas will favour the LNP, the rest of the electorate will swing heavily the other way.
My prediction: Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.