Condamine – Queensland 2015

LNP 20.10% vs KAP

Incumbent MP
Ray Hopper, since 2009. Previously Member for Darling Downs, 2001-2009.

Geography
Southern Queensland. Condamine covers rural areas to the west of Toowoomba, covering parts of Toowoomba and Dalby local government areas. The seat covers Dalby, Oakey, Pittsworth, Clifton and some outer parts of Toowoomba.

History
The seat of Condamine was created newly at the 2009 election, taking parts of the abolished seats of Darling Downs and Cunningham. The seat of Condamine had previously existed as a seat from 1950 to 1992, and for most of that time was held by the Country Party/National Party.

The district of Cunningham existed continuously from 1888 to 2009, and was won by the Country/National Party at every election from 1920 onwards.

Tony Elliott held Cunningham for the National Party from 1974 to 2001. He served as a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen government from 1980 to 1983, and again served as an opposition frontbencher in the early 1990s.

Elliott retired in 2001, and was succeeded by fellow National Stuart Copeland. Copeland won re-election in 2004 and 2006.

The seat of Darling Downs was created in 2001, with the same name as an earlier seat that had been abolished in 1888.

In 2001, the seat was won by independent candidate Ray Hopper, who joined the National Party later the same year.

Hopper joined the opposition frontbench in 2004, and won a second and third term as Member for Darling Downs.

Both Hopper and Copeland joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008, and when their seats were abolished in the 2008 redistribution, Hopper won LNP preselection for Condamine.

Hopper and Copeland both ran for Condamine in 2009, Hopper as the LNP candidate and Copeland as an independent. Hopper won the seat with 61.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, with Copeland coming second. Copeland managed 25% of the primary vote.

Ray Hopper was easily re-elected in 2012, winning 58% of the primary vote and over 70% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. In November 2012, he resigned from the LNP and joined Katter’s Australian Party and became the KAP state parliamentary leader shortly afterwards.

Candidates
Sitting Katter’s Australian Party MP Ray Hopper is running for the seat of Nanango.

  • Brendon Huybregts (Labor)
  • Alexandra Todd (Family First)
  • Shane White (Independent)
  • Pamela Fay Weekes (Greens)
  • Ben Hopper (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Pat Weir (Liberal National)

Assessment
On paper, Condamine has a very large LNP margin against Katter’s Australian Party, but this was when Hopper was running for the LNP. With Hopper now running for KAP, you would expect the KAP vote to be much higher. Hopper has represented the area since 2001, and first won election in Darling Downs as an independent, which suggests that he has a sizeable personal vote that can be transferred to KAP. Hopper has a good chance of retaining his seat, but nothing is guaranteed.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ray Hopper Liberal National 18,409 58.30 +10.64
John Mathison Katter’s Australian 6,732 21.32 +21.32
Nev Swan Labor 4,471 14.16 -5.48
Gabriele Tabikh Greens 1,273 4.03 +0.68
Shane White Independent 691 2.19 +2.19

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ray Hopper Liberal National 19,324 70.10 +8.54
John Mathison Katter’s Australian 8,242 29.90 +29.9
Polling places in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in yellow, South in red, Toowoomba Outskirts in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in yellow, South in red, Toowoomba Outskirts in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Condamine have been split into four parts. About one third of ordinary votes were cast at ten booths in a cluster close to the Toowoomba urban area, and these booths have been grouped as “Toowoomba Outskirts”. The remaining booths have been split into “North”, “Central” and “South”. The northern booths are in Dalby/Western Downs council area, while the remaining booths are all in the Toowoomba council area.

On primary votes, the Liberal National Party vote ranged from 57% in Toowoomba Outskirts to 63% in the south.

Katter’s Australian Party came second, with a vote ranging from 20.9% in the south to 23.3% in the centre.

Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 10.4% in the south to 15.2% in Toowoomba Outskirts.

Voter group LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP prim % Total % of votes
Toowoomba Outskirts 56.94 20.97 15.24 7,793 24.68
Central 57.27 23.28 14.22 7,623 24.14
North 57.51 23.18 13.55 5,566 17.63
South 63.01 20.91 10.43 2,071 6.56
Other votes 59.84 18.77 14.42 8,523 26.99
Liberal National primary votes in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Condamine at the 2012 Queensland state election.

10 COMMENTS

  1. Ray Hopper isn’t running for this seat, his son Ben is. Ray is running in the seat of Nanango. With Hopper Snr vacating Condamine, should be an easy win for the LNP.

  2. No Ray Hopper isn’t running for this seat. But even if he was, I doubt he would retain it. He’s swapped parties too many times and Katters Australia party’s vote has largely declined since the last election. It will most likely return to the LNP.

    Labor’s candidate running for this seat’s name is Brendon Huybregts.

  3. If Ben Hopper doesn’t win this seat, we’ll never know if Ray Hopper would have. But my guess is he would have, given that he’s won without major party backing before.

    What a bizarre gamble the Katter Party is taking here.

  4. It was his choice and may have been assisted by recent boundary changes that removed some of his best booths into Nanango

  5. There was no recent boundary change. The boundaries are the same as those in 2009 & 2012.

    Had Hopper chosen to contest Nanango in 2009 – when Dolly Pratt was the member – it would have neatly solved the LNP’s preselection dilemma that left Stuart Copeland without a seat.

  6. I think Shane White might do better this election – he is a wild card that may appeal to many disillusioned voters.

Comments are closed.