Clayfield – Queensland 2015

LNP 20.56%

Incumbent MP
Tim Nicholls, since 2006.

Geography
Brisbane. Clayfield covers inner suburbs of the City of Brisbane on the northern side of the Brisbane River, specifically Albion, Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield, Wooloowin, Hendra and Pinkenba, and parts of Nundah and Wavell Heights. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport and ports and industrial areas. The eastern half of the seat has practically no residential population.

History
The seat of Clayfield was first created in 1950, was abolished in 1977, and was restored in 1992. Apart from two terms from 2001 to 2006, the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party.

The seat was won in 1992 by Santo Santoro. He had first been elected in 1989, winning the seat of Merthyr off Liberal-turned-National Don Lane. Merthyr was abolished in 1992, and Santoro was elected in the restored seat of Clayfield.

Santoro served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1992 to 1995, and served as Minister for Training and Industrial Relations from 1996 to 1998.

In 2001, Santoro lost Clayfield in a shock result to the ALP’s Liddy Clark.

Santoro was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate in 2002. He served as Minister for Ageing from 2006 to 2007, but in March 2007 resigned from the ministry and the Senate after he was caught up in a share scandal.

Clark is a former actor in Australian television shows. She was re-elected as Member for Clayfield and briefly served as a minister in the Beattie government before resigning over a scandal involving the bringing of alcohol into a dry indigenous community in North Queensland.

In 2006, Clark was defeated by Brisbane city councillor Tim Nicholls. Nicholls was soon challenging Liberal leader Bruce Flegg for the leadership of the small party, and through 2007 the party was deadlocked due to a 4-4 tie between Flegg’s supporters and Nicholls’ supporters. The issue was resolved with the election of Mark McArdle as Liberal leader.

Nicholls has served as Shadow Treasurer since the merger of the Liberal and National parties in 2008, and won re-election in 2009 and 2012.

Candidates

• Tim Nicholls (Liberal National)
• John Martin (Labor)
• Anthony Pink (Greens)
• Katrina Macdonald (Independent)

Assessment
Clayfield is a safe LNP seat in normal circumstances, and Nicholls should have no trouble retaining his seat in 2015.

2012 election result

2012 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Clayfield have been divided into three parts based on key suburbs: Hendra in the south, Nundah in the north and Kedron in the centre. Most of the seat’s population lives at the western edge of the seat.

The Liberal National Party’s primary vote ranged from 54.4% in Nundah to 70% in Hendra.

The ALP came second, with a vote ranging from 17.4% in Hendra to 27% in Nundah. The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.9% in Hendra to 13.7% in Kedron.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP’s majority ranged from 63.5% in Nundah to 76.9% in Hendra.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.