Cairns – Queensland 2015

LNP 8.87%

Incumbent MP
Gavin King, since 2012.

Geography
Far North Queensland. The seat of Cairns covers the Cairns CBD and the neighbouring suburbs of Bungalow, Westcourt, Manoora, Kanimbla, Edge Hill, Mooroobool, Earlville, Bayview Heights and Woree, and parts of White Rock.

History
Cairns has been a Labor seat for the last century, barring a short period when it was held by an Independent Labor MP.

The seat was held by Bill McCormack from 1912 to 1930. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1925 to 1929.

The seat was won in 1998 by Desley Boyle. Boyle served five terms in Parliament, and served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2004 to 2011.

Desley Boyle retired at the 2012 election. LNP candidate Gavin King won the seat off the ALP with a 13% swing.

Candidates

  • Jeanette Sackley (Palmer United)
  • Rob Pyne (Labor)
  • Bernice Kelly (Independent)
  • Myra Gold (Greens)
  • Gavin King (Liberal National)

Assessment
Cairns was held by Labor continuously from 1947 to 2012, but in recent decades Labor’s margin in Cairns was usually marginal. Labor will be hoping to win back Cairns if they are to be restored to their previous strength.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gavin King Liberal National 11,632 42.51 +2.76
Kirsten Lesina Labor 7,520 27.48 -18.30
Darren Hunt Katter’s Australian 5,125 18.73 +18.73
Geoff Holland Greens 1,946 7.11 -3.85
John Piva Independent 1,141 4.17 +4.17

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gavin King Liberal National 13,573 58.87 +13.02
Kirsten Lesina Labor 9,481 41.13 -13.02
Polling places in Cairns at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Cairns at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Cairns have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

The LNP topped the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 39.7% in the centre to 44.1% in the south. The ALP came second, with a vote ranging from 25.5% in the south to 30.2% in the centre.

Katter’s Australian Party also polled strongly, with a vote ranging from 15.7% in the north to 20.3% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 39.67 30.16 18.98 65.12 8,615 31.48
North 40.27 29.50 15.68 68.02 5,014 18.32
South 44.11 25.53 20.31 66.19 4,210 15.39
Other votes 45.54 24.86 19.41 67.56 9,525 34.81
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Cairns at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Cairns at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Cairns at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Cairns at the 2012 Queensland state election.

22 COMMENTS

  1. This will be hotly contested, King has worked hard in his first term but is up against an even more popular local Councillor. Expect to see a swing higher then 10% here to Labor with Cr Rob Pyne winning comfortably.

  2. As popular as Pyne is (I used to live in Cairns) I think the margin is too great for Labor in an NQ seat. I don’t think the swing to Labor will be as big up north as we might see in some Brisbane seats. King has this way of convincing people he is a good local MP and he has the advantage of The Cairns Post being on his side. Labor will go close and this seat will be extremely marginal but I believe Cairns has changed from the working class seat it once was. This is one of a small handful of seats I’d get great satisfaction out of seeing the LNP lose, but it’s more hope I think.

  3. Actually, I again find myself agreeing with you Rudd for PM. This is one seat I keep changing my mind with on who I think will win. I actually for see the LNP possibly holding all their Far North Queensland seats if they’re lucky (even Cook). Cairns though will be close, but after the recent events in the seat, King has been on tv regularly with the police. Local MPs rarely get on their nightly news, however this situation is far from normal.

  4. Interesting seat, some of the inner suburbs have high amounts of housing commission and would vote labor normally.. The police minister has spent a bit of time here and there has been resources put into reducing street and youth crime. I think that may play well in this seat through the housing commission areas. Add to that positives with the member’s media profile and cairns hospital, I expect a strong result for the lnp.

  5. Rob Pyne is a fantastic candidate for Labor (he will get closer than anyone else) but I think 4-5 percent swing to Labor. Not enough. Labor’s best hope in FNQ is Cook but still not a given.

  6. This is a labor seat. And 13% in a seat with a retiring MP is really good. It highlights how likely this is going to be a labor pick up. Could be labor’s most marginal after the election

  7. Labor’s primary is up to 43% from the galaxy poll without a KAP candidate. The North appears to be toxic for the LNP. Question is which seats will they retain

  8. We need to talk ISSUES! If the LNP can give us something SOLID on the dredging of Trinity Inlet then they will have the Cairns seat in the bag. Otherwise …

  9. Gazza can I ask you why they would have it in the bag? Cairns was a Labor seat for a very long time you know….the people there certainly aren’t against voting Labor.

  10. Rudd for PM
    I take your point that Cairns was a Labor seat for a long time and that they still retain a large constituency out there. However, although the swing is coming back to Labor, it is still fresh in people’s memories that they left the coffers empty when voted out last time. The dredging is a big issue but Labor remains silent on this one. For these reasons I believe the LNP will be successful.

  11. Sorry didn’t know that a poll taken in the seat was relevant to that seat…? I’ll adress the points then that you didn’t make directly to me if thats what you want. Cairns is a crucial seat for labor to take to prove its electable to the regions at the next election. Seats like these are rare where there is a long current history of a regional seat staying labor solidly for some time. Its becoming a seat labor can hold but not on great big margins. Debt isn’t really an issue you can run on twice, the LNP ran on in 2012 and therefore can’t just say remember what labor did because then you’d have to remember what the LNP has done which has been disgusting in the last three years. LNP is promising why this seat voted labor out, Asset sale.

    The problem for the LNP is that in 2012, where a long labor incumbent with a high profile retired, is that they only managed a Primary vote of 42% Even though KAP prevented labor from winning more seats because of exhaustion, its given labor a strong opportunity because the KAP will largely go to labor. If you say atleast 12% of the 18% go to labor then you have labor with a primary vote of 39%. Then you have the swing against the LNP because of their mistakes and the fact that labor is promising more for tourism, you have the LNP on atleast 38%, not all of it will go labor some will leak to PUP and Kelly. Its hard to see where labor loses and finishes ahead of the LNP on primary since the amalgamtion. This seat won’t be on a high margin for labor but your problem is its a seat that has steadily been giving the LNP a chance and they haven’t capitalised on it. This and with polling is why its a likely labor gain but a marginal seat for them after the election

  12. @ Observer I too saw the poll but when you read the fine print they say the Cairns polling was far closer and could go down to the wire. I also see the Federal Government today said they’re going to ban the dumping of dredge spoil on the Reef. The Reef was the big issue turning undecided swing voters slightly to the Labor side. I now believe the LNP will run on this and suddenly claim they always felt the same but were just misunderstood and people will believe the garbage and forget the LNP was the complete opposite. As I said in an Ashgrove post also tonight, I have little faith in the ability of the swing voter to think outside their own selfish ways. Funny how the feds decided to bring this in now. Cowards. I say Cairns hold for LNP now……unfortunately.

  13. Yes out of Ipswich West and Keppel, Cairns will be the most hotly contested however the galaxy poll had this as a seat labor would probably pick up. Tourism and unemployment are huge issues here which are favouring labor here. The reef isn’t a huge issue, it would probably be one favouring the greens to be honest. The LNP can’t change their reputation on the Reef and wouldn’t change their campaign in just one week. Its too late and its not going to do much for them. What you fail to see is that state politics is boring for most and confused with federal issues, its not a case of wanting stuff. Thats why this is a marginal labor gain id say

  14. So what you thinking Sideline Observer? Labor by a few hundred votes? Possibly a seat they count for a few days?

  15. I have placed Cairns too close to call and one my watch list on the night. Early polling showed a good vote going to palmer but that was only a few days in. Preferences will play a major part

  16. My prediction: Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.

  17. Well..

    I can’t help but wonder whether Newman’s trip north this week was the final nail in the coffin for the now-defeated government.

    The premier flew north, gathered the members of Cook, Barron River and Cairns (as well as the candidate for Mulgrave), pointed at maps and grandstanded for the cameras, before flying back south in an apparent panic to shore up his own seat, aborting the rest of his northern trip.

    Now they are all without seats.

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