Brisbane Central – Queensland 2015

LNP 4.88%

Incumbent MP
Robert Cavallucci, since 2012.

Geography
Central Brisbane. The seat covers the Brisbane CBD and the suburbs of Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Newstead, Spring Hill, Herston, Bowen Hills, Windsor and parts of Kelvin Grove, Wilston and Newmarket.

History
The seat of Brisbane Central has existed since 1977, and has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1977 by Brian Davis. He had previously held the seat of Brisbane from 1969 to 1974, when he lost to the Liberal Party. He held Brisbane Central from 1977 to 1989.

In 1989 Davis was succeeded by Peter Beattie, the former State Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Beattie was appointed as Minister for Health in the Goss government in 1995. In 1996, the Goss government lost power and the National-Liberal coalition took power without an election. Following this change Beattie was elected as leader of the ALP.

Peter Beattie led the ALP into the 1998 election and became Premier at the head of a Labor minority government, which quickly gained a majority following a by-election. He won landslide victories in 2001, 2004 and 2006 before retiring in 2007.

At the following by-election, the seat was won by Labor candidate Grace Grace, former general secretary of the Queensland Council of Unions. Without a Liberal candidate, Grace’s main opposition came from Greens candidate Anne Boccabella, but retained the seat comfortably with a 7.9% margin.

Grace was re-elected in 2009, but Beattie’s 2006 margin of 14.4% collapsed to only 6%.

In 2012, Grace was defeated by LNP candidate Robert Cavallucci.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Robert Cavallucci is presumably running for re-election.

Assessment
Brisbane Central was held by the ALP continuously from 1977 to 2012. While it was not always held by huge margins, the LNP’s victory in 2012 was a shock and is unlikely to be repeated.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Cavallucci Liberal National 12,201 48.70 +11.46
Grace Grace Labor 8,435 33.67 -8.49
Anne Boccabella Greens 3,842 15.33 -1.67
Ruth Bonnett Independent 576 2.30 +2.3

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Robert Cavallucci Liberal National 12,689 54.88 +10.85
Grace Grace Labor 10,432 45.12 -10.85
Polling places in Brisbane Central at the 2012 Queensland state election. Brisbane in green, New Farm in orange, North in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Brisbane Central at the 2012 Queensland state election. Brisbane in green, New Farm in orange, North in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Brisbane have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the centre of Brisbane have been grouped as “Brisbane”, while those in the suburb of New Farm have been grouped. The remaining booths have been grouped as “North”.

The LNP polled a consistent primary vote of around 48.5% in all three areas.

Labor came second in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 32% in the north to 36.3% in New Farm.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 13.8% in New Farm to 17.2% in the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
New Farm 48.43 36.33 13.82 53.58 6,521 26.03
North 48.54 32.03 17.16 55.34 5,408 21.59
Brisbane 48.48 34.60 14.24 54.49 3,948 15.76
Other votes 49.08 32.34 15.81 55.74 9,177 36.63
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Brisbane Central at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Brisbane Central at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Brisbane Central at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Brisbane Central at the 2012 Queensland state election.

11 COMMENTS

  1. Another hotly contested seat in 2015. Cavallucci has been a very hard working MP and popular local Member, but so was Grace when she lost in 2012. Both are well-liked by the Electorate, but with a margin of less than 5% and a seat that is traditionally Labor, Grace is in the hot seat to reclaim Brisbane Central. If by some turn of luck Cavallucci holds on, he’d have to be up for promotion to Cabinet.

  2. Personal vote (particularly with the Italian and Greek community) is worth 5-10 percent in this seat. The sitting MP is liked. One of (if not the only) seat under 5 percent Labor won’t win. It’s the same way Gambarro holds the Federal seat.

  3. The redistribution of Brisbane in 2010 moved the labor leaning suburbs of Ashgrove and Stafford out and pushed in the liberal voting suburbs of Clayfield and Ascot, making it more vulnerable. That along with the anti-labor mood of 2010 and 2013 in Queensland is largely why Gambarro has held on. 2016 she will be gone. Grace Grace is of italian heritage and Grace is still liked and been active in the electorate since 2012. Theres no reason that labor can’t win this, if anything labor should be excited about taking this seat

  4. I always like your observations Observer, I really do, and I say that with no smart allecness, I really do enjoy your analysis. I strongly disagree with you here though. As a Labor man I’d happily like you to be right, but being purely objective I think LNP hold. Time will tell. A seat I’m excited about seeing results in.

  5. And I often hear Grace Grace referred to as a Labor hack on the comeback trail. Not a good rapport for someone wanting to win.

  6. Look Id rate Robert a far better chance then Campbell Newman holding Ashgrove. Beattie definitely gave the electorate more incentive to vote labor but the collapse in labor’s vote here has been so long that the swing was less then the average and a correction is inevitable. Theres nothing going for the LNP here other then a popular MP who will distance himself from brand LNP. Grace Grace can definitely get her primary vote up to the 40s and with that Green vote Robert should be gone with a 6-7% swing

  7. A strong Green vote and one where their preference recommendation will be sought by Labor. I’d tip a swing below the Brissie average, but enough for Grace to win.

  8. I’m with PJ here. While Cavallucci is a good local member, I feel like we’ve seen Central Brisbane gradually becoming less of a Labor stronghold at all levels of government. While I think Grace Grace will probably win, the swing will be far less than the rest of Brisbane and the state.

  9. Cav is a good, moderate local MP. I expect this will fall to labor, but nothing like the swings you will see in outer brisbane and Ipswich. I’m tipping labor by 2%

  10. I have sent several letters to the office of Cavallucci since he was sworn in, on various topics, and have never received a response, let alone an acknowledgement of my concerns… not that encouraging. Grace appears more committed but her history has strong ties to the unions, more so than is acceptable in this day and age, even for a labour member.

    Kai Jones, on the other hand, seems to be a man of the people – with an agenda of honesty and transparency – and appears interested in finding a pragmatic middle ground.

Comments are closed.