Ashgrove – Queensland 2015

LNP 5.70%

Incumbent MP
Campbell Newman, since 2012.

Geography
North-Western Brisbane. Ashgrove covers the Brisbane suburbs of The Gap, Gaythorne, Enoggera, Ashgrove and parts of Mitchelton and Alderley.

History
The seat of Ashgrove has existed since 1960. The seat was held by the Liberal Party continuously from 1960 to 1983 and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1989.

The seat was first won in 1960 by Douglas Tooth. He had previously won the seat of Kelvin Grove for the Liberal Party in 1957. He held Ashgrove until his retirement in 1974. He was replaced by John Greenwood, also of the Liberal Party.

In 1983, Greenwood lost his seat to the ALP’s Tom Veivers. Veivers held the seat for one term, losing to Liberal candidate Alan Sherlock in 1986. Sherlock again only held the seat for one term, losing in 1989 to Labor candidate Jim Fouras. Fouras had previously held South Brisbane for one term from 1983 to 1986.

Fouras was elected as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1990, and held the position until 1996. He retired from Parliament in 2006.

Kate Jones won Ashgrove in 2006. After winning a second term in 2009 she was appointed as Minister for the Environment, Resource Management and Climate Change. She stepped down from the ministry in June 2011 to focus on her campaign against LNP leader Campbell Newman.

At the 2012 election, Jones was defeated by LNP leader Campbell Newman. Newman had served as Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, and resigned in April 2011 after being elected as leader of the LNP despite not holding a seat in the state Parliament. Newman has served as Premier of Queensland since winning the 2012 election.

Candidates

Assessment
Ashgrove will be a key seat at the 2015 election, and will draw a great deal of attention. With a 5.7% margin, Ashgrove is a very marginal seat and in the past has leant towards Labor. It is quite possible for the LNP to win a second term while Newman loses Ashgrove. There have been five seat-level polls of Ashgrove in 2014, and all five gave Labor a small lead.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Campbell Newman Liberal National 14,932 51.81 +14.55
Kate Jones Labor 10,549 36.60 -9.11
Sandra Bayley Greens 2,644 9.17 -3.23
Norman Wicks Katter’s Australian 478 1.66 +1.66
Trevor Jones Independent 156 0.54 +0.54
Ian Nelson One Nation 64 0.22 +0.22

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Campbell Newman Liberal National 15,537 55.70 +12.8
Kate Jones Labor 12,358 44.30 -12.80
Polling places in Ashgrove at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in orange, North in green, the Gap in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Ashgrove at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in orange, North in green, the Gap in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ashgrove have been split into three parts: Central, North, and “The Gap”, covering booths in western parts of the seat.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, with a primary vote ranging from 49.4% in the north to 53.6% in central, and with an estimated two-party-preferred vote ranging from 54.7% in the north to 57.3% in central.

The ALP’s primary vote ranged from 35% in central to 36.6% in the Gap. The Greens came third with a primary vote ranging from 8.3% in the Gap to 10.5% in the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 53.59 34.99 9.58 57.34 9,450 32.79
The Gap 53.47 36.63 8.28 56.71 7,745 26.87
North 49.36 35.68 10.52 54.71 3,823 13.26
Other votes 49.20 38.96 8.92 53.20 7,805 27.08
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Ashgrove at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Ashgrove at the 2012 Queensland state election.

68 COMMENTS

  2. R4PM – perhaps. Following the money and the polls usually delivers the best result and both suggest a narrow win for Jones.

    Ash grove is essentially a soft left seat. It would be as if Tony Abbott came into parliament in a seat like Griffith, only to have to face up again in a non-landslide election.

    I don’t doubt that Newman is the only LNP candidate who could win Ashgrove, but I’m still tipping Jones by a very narrow margin.

  3. Did anyone go to Candidates Forum at Gaythorne and come away with anything other than that Newman did not attend.

    Maybe he was with his solicitors trying to shut down a newspaper or radio station?

    Whilst I do not like Allan Jones silencing him by legal action will not alter the truth what ever it is?

  4. Just being honest – no need to be rude about it. If people understand this so much, it amazes me they actually think Newman will lose here. That’s all I meant. BTW I don’t vote for my own selfish interests. I often vote for or against policies which wouldn’t affect me either way but I happen to know people who would suffer if they happened.

  5. @PJ ok that’s not a bad analogy using Griffith as an example. I guess that is a fair enough way to look at it.

  7. Rudd for PM, your looking at it from your point of view as someone politically aware. The majority of people aren’t on state issues, they often attribute projects to a degree with the federal government. The Ashgrove electorate is represented by the LNP federally and won’t be as worried as they have a federal MP in government that it doesn’t matter if Newman doesn’t win because they will still get ‘stuff’. QLD generally votes different state and federally anyway, look at the gold coast, labor was never a chance in moncrieff or macpherson but held a decent amount of seats on the GC at that time.

    Theres also the described swinging voters you refer to. One, there aren’t many left in Ashgrove. Even if you say the rest of the swingers will go to newman, theres enough support for Jones to win by being ahead on the primary vote. Show me evidence where the electorate is polled and Newman has a higher primary vote (Newspoll didn’t include the independents, if they had they would have similar findings to reachtel). The swinging voters are probably more likely to vote for other parties which will deliver preferences to Kate Jones or exhaust. Second Ashgrove isn’t a typical marginal seat because its not a marginal seat. Based on its history its a fairly safe labor seat. Id also be careful of comparing it to Griffith because that seats demographics in terms of income put it with the safest liberal seats, i genueinly believe that Griffith won’t be producing the large margins Rudd use to enjoy. Id say Ashgrove is more like Lilley. The majority of people in Australia only care about state politics during the campaign and along as Ashgrove is represented federally by the LNP, theres not as much worry about not having funding in the electorate

  8. Interesting analogy Observer. Always enjoy your posts. Only 7 more days and we will know…..well that’s barring it’s not a seat that takes a few days to declare.

  9. I’ve deleted a rude and aggressive comment that violated the comments policy.

    Rudd for PM, it’s possible Campbell Newman will win, but considering that he hasn’t won an Ashgrove poll for rather a long time now, I think your confidence is misplaced.

  10. Ha ha yeah perhaps Ben, I get a bit pessimistic at times, perhaps it’s that. Appreciate the delete but you didn’t have to hey, it’s all good.

  11. Reachtel poll has labor up here leading 54/46 on 2PP with primary votes of 46.5 for labor, 42.3 for Newman and 8.2 for the greens. Bye bye Newman

  12. If this was any other seat I was unsure about, I’d say the person leading in the poll was home. Three things here are make me not apply that in this instance though:

    1. I feel there are a record amount of people in this election yet to make up their mind. Let’s not be coy enough to assume none are in Ashgrove. Now that tv ads have to stop, the Murdoch papers and most commercial news are gonna talk up the Newman gov so badly the next 2 days it will be sickening. The endorsement in The Courier Mail will probs be Friday morning. People are gullible. Plus AP is starting to struggle a little god bless her.

    2. I remember this same polling company Reachtell said Rudd was going to lose Griffith in 2013 – I got so stressed about it cause I did not want that happen that when he didn’t, while relieved I was so angry at Reachtell too. In the polling world Reachtell and Roy Morgan are never taken that seriously. Newspoll is usually the most respected. Newspoll had them 47 each.

    3. Don’t underestimate the amount of sensationalism in people – people love an good drama. I believe there is a solid group of people who when polled say they will vote for Kate but who would actually know what they do in the booth?

  13. 1. Essentially there are two days left of campaigning. Yes I agree there is still an undecided vote but at this stage late in the campaign it’s not going to be big enough to make a difference and if they are still undecided it’s more likely to benefit minor parties and independents then the major parties AND if they follow HTV then they end up preferencing labor. Anna’s approval has actually risen in internal polling in the last week with Newman suffering from his bikie claim. Also people aren’t going to get their advise from the courier mail especially given everyone knows it’s bias, Alan Jones is more likely to have an affect on influencing voters then the courier mail. People don’t like reading opinion pieces, ESPECIALLY about state politics

    2. I don’t know what poll your referring to. The only poll of Griffith I could find by ReachTEL was a month out from the election and had Rudd leading 55/45 which was close to the final result given the surge to the coalition. Newspoll and Longeran showed labor behind in Griffith 52/48 so contradicts your claim that news poll is more respected (especially given they only polled for three candidates in Ashgrove when there are five)

    3. Political junkies love a drama, everyday voters just want to avoid a fine. This is only state politics and if that was the case they would have stuck with Kate in 2012.

  14. Ok – well only a couple more days and we should hopefully know. Here’s hoping you are 100 right Observer. I look forward to election night posts 🙂

  15. And it’s possible I got the polls mixed up (I often don’t) but I guess it’s possible. I really remember it being Reachtell for some reason though.

  16. My prediction: Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands – we could very well see a situation where Newman loses his seat, while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.

  18. Well, here is hoping the people of Ashgrove do the people of Qld a big favour today!
    I will be very disappointed if “Can Sackem” doesn’t get the boot.

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