8:24pm – We got a final batch of postal votes and it appears we’re done for tonight. Labor’s vote has dropped from 51% to just under 30%, while the CLP has dropped from 31.4% to just 16.3%. The Greens have narrowly outpolled the CLP, with the Territory Alliance in second place on 22.2%.
Preference distribution only slightly assisted the Territory Alliance, who gained 52.6% of preferences, but this still left Labor in the lead by 170 votes, which should be solid even after extra votes are included.
I’ll be clocking off now, but I’ll be back later this year with a guide to the NT election, due in August.
8:11pm – Labor won 52% of the two-candidate-preferred vote at Rapid Creek, which increased their lead over the Territory Alliance by 34 votes, to 156 votes, with one booth still outstanding.
8:03pm – It seems likely that Labor will hold on, but it’s worth remembering what a massive swing this is. Labor is looking at a primary vote swing of over 21%, while the CLP vote has dropped by over 15%.
7:56pm – The more interesting angle is if the Territory Alliance falls into third place behind the Greens or the CLP after preferences. The TA is on 22.2%, the Greens 17.2% and the CLP 16.2%. But it seems unlikely the CLP will push the Greens into second place, or give them the win if they do.
7:53pm – Labor is only leading by 122 votes, but that seems likely to be enough to hold on against TA, considering there’s just two more booths yet to report. At the Rapid Creek early voting centre, Labor leads TA by 80 votes before preferences, so it seems likely Labor will top the two-candidate-preferred count there. This then leaves just one more booth.
7:46pm – We now have the two-candidate-preferred count from Moil, where Labor outpolled TA by 21 votes.
7:36pm – We now have the primary vote result from Moil, Labor again topped the poll with just 26%, followed by TA on 22%, and then the Greens.
7:14pm – Polls closed just over 70 minutes ago in the Johnston by-election in the Darwin area, for the NT Legislative Assembly.
At the moment we have results from one of the two local booths in the seat – Millner. We are waiting for results from Moil as well as the Darwin mobile team, and the early voting centre in Rapid Creek. We have results from the early voting centres in Casuarina and Darwin.
Millner is more pro-Labor than Moil, as you can see in my pre-election guide.
Labor is currently leading with 31.9% of the primary vote, followed by the Territory Alliance on 23.1%, the Greens on 18.2% and the Country Liberal Party on 14.8%. The Territory Alliance is a conservative breakaway founded by former premier and CLP leader Terry Mills.
At the moment Labor is beating the TA on the two-candidate-preferred count on the two pre-poll centres reported so far, but we don’t know if they will actually come in the top two.
I’ll be reporting back regularly as we get the rest of the results, then we can discuss possible preference flows.