Federal 2019 – the race in Melbourne

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There are 25 federal electorates in the Melbourne metropolitan area. Labor won 16 of these seats in 2016, with the Liberal Party winning eight and the Greens winning one.

There are nine seats I wanted to zoom in on in today’s post, with the map below the fold:

Federal 2019 – the race in Sydney

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There are 29 federal electorates in the greater Sydney region (including the Central Coast and Blue Mountains) – it’s the most populous region in Australia.

The region contains sixteen Labor seats, twelve Liberal seats and one independent seat.

I’ve identified seven seats that I think are particularly worth watching in Sydney, below the fold.

Podcast #25 – Pre-poll and the federal campaign in NSW

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Ben was joined by Rodney Smith from the University of Sydney to discuss the surge in pre-poll voting and the key races in New South Wales.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Federal 2019 – the race in Western Australia

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Western Australia has sixteen seats in the House of Representatives, and these seats strongly favour the Liberal Party. Labor holds five seats, while the Liberal Party holds the other eleven.

The Liberal Party has dominated Western Australia at federal elections since Kim Beazley’s departure from federal politics over a decade ago. Polling earlier in the current term suggested a reversion towards Labor, but the latest polling suggests Labor is only on track to gain a small swing.

I have identified six seats worth watching at this election: three marginal Liberal seats, one marginal Labor seat, and two other slightly safer Liberal seats.

Federal 2019 – the race in South-East Queensland

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19There are twenty seats in south-east Queensland, stretching from the Gold Coast in the south to the Sunshine Coast in the north.

South-East Queensland currently contains thirteen Liberal National Party (LNP) seats and seven Labor seats. Brisbane proper is dominated by Labor, with five Labor seats and three LNP seats, but the LNP holds the six seats on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. The real contest happens on the fringe of Brisbane, both to the north and south.

In this post I will run through six of the more interesting races.

Disendorsements again and again

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One of the surprising dynamics of the last week has been the large number of candidates who have been disendorsed by their party.

From last Monday to Friday there were six candidates from three parties who were disendorsed by their party.

Labor’s Wayne Kurnoth was disendorsed as the party’s #2 Senate candidate in the Northern Territory on Monday. He was joined by One Nation’s Steve Dickson, the party’s #2 Senate candidate in Queensland, on Tuesday.

Jeremy Hearn and Peter Killin, the Liberal candidates for the Victorian seats of Isaacs and Wills respectively, were disendorsed on Thursday. They were joined by Liberal candidate for Lyons Jessica Whelan and Labor candidate for Melbourne Luke Creasey on Friday.

Pre-poll stats update

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One of the developing stories this week has been the continuing increase in pre-poll voting at this year’s election. The AEC publishes daily updates with the number of votes cast at each pre-poll centre per day, allowing us to track how many people are choosing to vote early. In this post I’ll run through what the stats look like after three days of voting (data up to date as of the end of voting Wednesday).

As of the end of voting on Wednesday, 375,793 voters had cast a ballot using pre-poll. The equivalent figure was only 143,611 in 2016, 89,761 in 2013 and 53,474 in 2010, although I should note that voting started on a Tuesday at the last two elections, so I’m comparing three days of voting to just two.

Can you get elected from below the line?

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2016 was a good year for candidates overcoming their party’s Senate ballot order. We saw Tasmanian Labor senator Lisa Singh win re-election as one of five Labor senators despite being ranked sixth on her party list, with the candidate ranked above her, John Short, missing out. We also saw Tasmanian Liberal senator Richard Colbeck perform strongly on below-the-line votes, but he was less successful, although he later returned to the Senate due to a vacancy caused by section 44. Singh’s victory was the first time since the introduction of above-the-line voting in 1984 when a Senate candidate defeated a candidate from their party who was ranked above them on the party’s ticket.

This election Lisa Singh has again been demoted to an unwinnable position, while New South Wales Liberal senator Jim Molan is attempting to hold on despite being ranked fourth on his party’s ticket.

So can either of these senators win despite the unfavourable position? It’s very unlikely, for a number of reasons. Each state will only elect six senators in 2019, compared to twelve in 2016. It’s also much easier to achieve this in Tasmania than in mainland states, for a number of reasons.

Below the fold I’ll run through some more analysis on this question.

Podcast #24 – Federal election nominations and housing policy

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Ben is joined by El Gibbs and Gareth Bryant to discuss the final declaration of candidate nominations for the federal election, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and the role of housing policy in the election.

Thanks to 2SER radio in Sydney for the use of their studio.

You can subscribe to this podcast using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Gender balance in winnable seats

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I posted earlier this week about the number of candidates running for each party, with a breakdown of candidates by gender. I had a number of questions about how many of these candidates are running in winnable seats.

In this post I run through the number of male and female candidates running for the major parties, broken down by the type of seat (safe or marginal). In short, incumbent MPs are more likely to be men, while both major parties are running more women as non-incumbents than they have current incumbents. Labor is well ahead of the Coalition, and most of the women the Coalition is running for open seats are unlikely to be elected at this election.