Vic 2018 – first draft of the candidate list

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I’ve been trickling out seat guides for the Victorian election gradually for the last while. I’ve now posted 53 out of 88 lower house profiles, and guides to all eight upper house regions. At the moment I’m posting two seats per day.

As part of this work I’ve been tracking candidates who are running, and I thought I would publish my spreadsheet for anyone to access.

View the Vic 2018 candidates list.

My list currently has 216 candidates on it. This list includes 67 Labor candidates, 44 Greens candidates and a total of 72 Coalition candidates. Interestingly there are also twenty Animal Justice candidates announced.

I’ve coded every candidate for their gender. Labor has announced more women than men currently, as have Animal Justice. The proportion of women running for the Greens and the Liberal Party is much lower. This doesn’t take into account which seats are actually winnable, which could produce a very different picture for some of these parties.

I’m going to keep updating this throughout the campaign, up until the nominations close (which I think is on 9 November). If you have any suggestions for people missing, you can comment on the relevant seat guide or send me a message. If you are from a party and have a lengthy list of candidates, please get in touch, I’d love to get them in big batches. I will occasionally run through the seat guides and update the candidate lists but the above spreadsheet will be more up-to-date.

I’ll be back soon with more analysis on Wentworth and Victoria, but in the meantime I hope this is useful.

EDIT: I’ve updated the list, which has expanded to 249 candidates. Thanks to Nick Casmirri and Alex Lum for your help.

Wentworth by-election nominations day

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Nominations will be declared at midday today for the Wentworth by-election. I’m going to drop by the ballot draw in Sydney and will update the candidate list on my seat guide in the early afternoon.

As of this morning I’m aware of at least thirteen candidates, who are all listed on the seat guide.

I’ve been a bit quiet over recent weeks as I’ve been focusing on seat guides but I’m going to start doing more active blogging as we head into the Wentworth by-election and Victorian state election.

In the meantime, please use this as a thread to discuss the candidate nominations today.

Update: here is the full list in ballot order:

  • Robert Callanan (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens)
  • Shayne Higson (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • Steven Georgantis (People’s Party)
  • Tim Murray (Labor)
  • Ben Forsyth (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
  • Tony Robinson (Liberty Alliance)
  • Samuel Gunning (Liberal Democrats)
  • Dave Sharma (Liberal)
  • Angela Vithoulkas (Independent)
  • Deb Doyle (Animal Justice)
  • Andrea Leong (Science Party)
  • Licia Heath (Independent)
  • Barry Keldoulis (Arts Party)
  • Kerryn Phelps (Independent)
  • Kay Dunne (Sustainable Australia)

New dataset for website donors

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I’ve just finished a big project pulling together a bunch of election data, which is part of a new benefit for people who donate to support this website via Patreon.

I’ve now got a complete set of booth-level vote data for every Queensland state election since 2004 (six elections) as well as every Brisbane City Council election since 2000 (five elections). This dataset includes the candidate lists, polling place lists including the geolocation, primary votes by polling place and (except for the oldest elections) two-candidate-preferred votes by polling place. If you’re looking for historical information on how voting patterns have changed over time there’s nothing better.

I’ve added this to my data repository, which includes booth-level data from every state election since 2012, as well as NSW council elections since that time.

I’ve decided to take parts of this data repository and just make them available to people who contribute to support this website via Patreon. I will keep the most recent election for each jurisdiction as publicly available, but older datasets will be shared with anyone who can chip in $5 or more per month.

People who support this website have given me the time to get the seat guides done and to launch the podcast. More donors will let me keep up this work but also use spare time to work on pulling together more datasets – I’m planning to put together a dataset of the recent federal by-elections (unlike general election data, the AEC data is missing important information for these by-elections) as well as the results of the 2010 Victorian and 2011 NSW state elections. If you find this useful, please sign up and you can access all of the data that I’ve produced so far.

Podcast #8 – Wagga Wagga results and Banks

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I’m joined by Ben Spies-Butcher and Amanda McCormack to discuss the Wagga Wagga by-election, the state of NSW politics six months before the state election, and the federal seat of Banks.

We also discussed Ann Sudmalis’ retirement announcement and Kerryn Phelps’ candidacy announcement.

Links to things discussed in the show:

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Wagga Wagga – results wash-up

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Last night’s result was extremely bad for the Liberal Party. We won’t know who has won for sure for a few days or even a week, but it looks most likely that independent candidate Joe McGirr has won, and Labor probably has the next best shot at winning.

I’ve got a piece going up in the Guardian today analysing the broader significance of the result, but I’d just quickly note that this result follows up on large double-digit swings from the Nationals to the Shooters at by-elections in Orange, Cootamundra and Murray, which saw one of those seats fall. We have to assume that the coalition is on track for a big thumping in its rural heartland in March.

In this post I want to cover what the voting patterns were (including a map and a booth breakdown) and then how the preferences could shake out.

Wagga Wagga by-election live

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Primary votes

CandidateVotes%Swing
Seb McDonagh (SFF)445610.010.0
Julia Ham (LIB)1120725.1-28.5
Joe McGirr (IND)1145025.625.6
Ray Goodlass (GRN)12852.9-1.8
Tom Arentz (CDP)8531.9-0.4
Paul Funnell (IND)483410.80.9
Dan Hayes (ALP)1064223.8-4.7

Two-party-preferred votes

CandidateVotes%Swing
Julia Ham (LIB)1118547.7-14.8
Dan Hayes (ALP)1227052.314.8
Exhausted6500

12:11 – Okay, not long ago we got the primary votes for the Wagga Wagga pre-poll centre. Following this point the NSWEC took down the two-party-preferred count, presumably because they’ll be running a Liberal vs McGirr 2CP count. While there is no guarantee that Labor couldn’t jump from third into second on minor candidate preferences, that 2CP count would give us a good sense of who will win. It seems likely McGirr will win that count.

That’s it for tonight, I’ll return tomorrow with some maps and analysis.

Podcast #7 – new PM, right-wing minor parties and Wagga

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Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Macquarie University to discuss the new Liberal leadership, competition amongst right-wing minor parties and the Wagga Wagga by-election.

Read Glenn Kefford and Shaun Ratcliff’s analysis of nativist rhetoric at the Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

Podcast #6 – Liberal leadership spill and Lindsay

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I was joined on Wednesday evening by Stewart Jackson and El Gibbs to discuss the Liberal leadership spill and the seat of Lindsay.

Our discussion of the Liberal leadership spill focused on some of the broader issues but was conducted before the rumours of a second spill strengthened later tonight. I expect our chat will be somewhat out of date in the next few days but most of it should still be interesting regardless of who comes out on top.

Read the Tally Room guide to Lindsay

Follow El Gibbs on Twitter

Stewart Jackson’s University of Sydney profile

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

The seats you’ve been talking about

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With the federal election guide now complete, I decided to check in on which seats have been attracting the most comments. Comment sections are now open for all 159 federal contests, and some of these pages have been quite active.

These are the seats with the most comments. There’s some obvious marginal seats but also a few surprises.

SeatComments
Hume49
Ryan44
Macnamara39
Lindsay38
Cooper36
Cook33
Brisbane28
Higgins27
Lilley23
Reid22
Casey20
Herbert20
Hughes20
Stirling19
Deakin15
Isaacs15
New England15
QLD Senate15

Overall (as of Saturday evening) 1153 comments had been posted on 140 different guides, with nineteen races yet to attract a comment.

If there’s a seat that interests you, please join in!

Federal election guide finalised

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For those who haven’t already noticed, I wanted to let you know that the guide to the next federal election is now finished and up on the website in total.

The guide includes profiles of all 151 House of Representatives races, and all eight Senate contests.

You can use these links to see a full list of lower house links:

Or you can use this map to navigate to any seat of interest. Click on the seat and a pop-up box will appear, including a link to the guide.

And here are links to the eight Senate contests:

Please let me know if there are any errors by commenting on the relevant post or by filling out the contact form on the front page of the guide. I will make some small changes as the election gets closer, and will occasionally do updates of candidate lists.

Meanwhile I am now posting one seat per day for the Victorian state election.