A new year: 2013 election guide

After extensive work, the first stage of the Tally Room's guide to the 2013 Australian federal election has now been posted. The first twenty seat guides have now been posted. These twenty seats all have margins of 3.2% or less, including eleven of the twelve...

NSW – drawing a new map

I have an article in New Matilda today about the upcoming NSW state redistribution and I wanted to post some additional information here at the Tally Room. The NSWEC has posted the enrolment data for December 2012 on the redistribution website. The following table breaks...

South Australian redistribution finished

Over the weekend I finished a Google Earth map of the finalised 2014 boundaries for the South Australian state election. I had previously posted a draft map on the blog months ago. Antony Green has posted a new pendulum and summaries of each new seat....

Elsewhere in the media…

Last week I had a piece published on New Matilda about the experiment with election privatisation at the recent NSW local government elections. I will also be interviewed this morning on Mornings with Linda Mottram on ABC local radio in Sydney (702 AM). I'll post the...

USA 2012: Another election mess

The mess that is US election administration was demonstrated most clearly at the 2000 presidential election, when the result hinged on an effective tie in Florida. Various courts intervened, rules varied depending on which official was issuing them, and ballot paper designs were proven...

USA 2012: All about demographics

The big story of last week’s US presidential election was the impact of demographic change on election results. While Mitt Romney won a large majority of the white vote, it wasn't enough to win an election in a modern America with a rapidly growing...

USA 2012: Results wrap

Tuesday's election was definitely a strong result for the Democrats, with Republicans picking up the scraps with a few victories. The Democrats performed very strongly in the presidential race, with Obama achieving a slim majority of the popular vote and holding on to most of...

USA 2012: Election results live

Barack Obama elected to second term, with at least 274 electoral votes. 50/51 states called Barack Obama - 303 Mitt Romney - 206 5:18pm - That's all for today from me. The only state left to be called is Florida. I'll be back in the morning with a...

USA 2012: Result prediction

Election results are expected to start coming in late on Wednesday morning, Australian time. I thought it would be interesting to put cards on the table and make a prediction about the result. Real Clear Politics has a 'create your own map' tool where you can...

USA 2012: Democrats holding on to the Senate

After early signs indicating that the Democrats were in danger of losing control of the Senate this week, it now looks like the Democrats are set on maintaining their majority, with the most likely outcome seeing both parties maintaining the same number of seats...