Vaucluse – NSW 2019

LIB 22.9% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Gabrielle Upton, since 2011.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Vaucluse covers most of Woollahra local government area and half of Waverley local government area. It covers the suburbs of Watsons Bay, Vaucluse, Dover Heights, Bondi Beach, Bellevue Hill, Double Bay, Darling Point and Point Piper.

History
Vaucluse has existed since the 1927 election. In its history, it has always been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.

The seat was first won in 1927 by Nationalist candidate William Foster. He held the seat until his death in 1936.

The seat was won at the 1936 Vaucluse by-election by independent UAP candidate Murray Robson. He soon joined the United Australia Party and held his seat for over two decades. He took a leave of absence to serve as a military officer during the Second World War, but continued to hold his seat.

Robson became leader of the NSW Liberal Party and Leader of the Opposition in 1954 as a compromise candidate after a tied ballot. He held the leadership for only thirteen months before he was replaced in 1955. He was re-elected in 1956, and then retired in 1957.

The 1957 Vaucluse by-election was won by Liberal candidate Geoffrey Cox. He was re-elected in 1959 and 1962, and held office until he committed suicide in his Parliament House office in 1964.

No by-election was held following Cox’s death, and Liberal candidate Keith Doyle won Vaucluse at the 1965 election. He held his seat until his retirement in 1978.

Rosemary Foot won Vaucluse for the Liberal Party in 1978. She served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1983 to 1986, when she retired.

Ray Aston won the Vaucluse by-election in 1986, and was re-elected in 1988, but he died later that year.

The 1988 Vaucluse by-election was won by Michael Yabsley. He had been Liberal Member for Bligh from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by independent Clover Moore. Yabsley was immediately appointed to the ministry after winning the by-election. He stepped down from the ministry in 1992 and retired in 1994.

The 1994 Vaucluse by-election was won by Peter Debnam. He joined the Opposition frontbench in 1997. In 2005, he was elected Leader of the Opposition, and led the Liberal-National coalition into the 2007 election. He stepped down as leader following the 2007 election. He continued as a frontbencher until May 2008, when he resigned in protest at his party’s plan to support the ALP’s privatisation of the electricity industry.

Debnam retired in 2011, and Vaucluse was easily won by Liberal candidate Gabrielle Upton. Upton was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Vaucluse is a very safe Liberal seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Gabrielle Upton Liberal 30,25765.6-4.2
Megan Mcewin Greens 8,55918.5+0.3
Gloria Nicol Labor 6,09013.2+2.5
Susanne GervayNo Land Tax8541.9+1.9
Beresford ThomasChristian Democrats3870.8-0.4
Informal1,1552.4

2015 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Gabrielle Upton Liberal 31,11872.9-3.2
Megan Mcewin Greens 11,55127.1+3.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Gabrielle Upton Liberal 31,49375.3-6.1
Gloria Nicol Labor 10,33124.7+6.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Vaucluse have been split into three parts: Bondi in the south-east, Vaucluse in the north-east and Woollahra in the west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all three areas, ranging from 61.9% in Bondi to 79.3% in Vaucluse.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 10.2% in Woollahra to 17.7% in Bondi.

Voter groupALP prim %LIB 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Woollahra10.274.811,21724.3
Bondi17.761.99,72421.1
Vaucluse10.379.37,29415.8
Other votes14.072.812,01326.0
Pre-poll13.379.35,89912.8

Election results in Vaucluse at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Liberal vs Greens) votes and Labor primary votes.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. This is very possible to go if a strong independent, (This is in the Wentworth territory) Runs here, Upton has had her own problems, I don’t see the greens gaining here, But if a strong IND ran here, Or if hypothetically Malcolm Turnbull ran as an independent here he would easily win it

  2. The problem with strong independents is that they only come along once in a while. And they only get elected under the right circumstances.

    Also, Vaucluse isn’t Wentworth. Vaucluse is a staunchly Liberal subset of Wentworth. Sharma won here. Comfortably.

    Safe Liberal retain.

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