Tweed – NSW 2019

NAT 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Geoff Provest, since 2007.

Geography
Northern NSW. Tweed covers the eastern half of the Tweed shire, covering most of the shire’s population centres including Tweed Heads and Banora Point.

History
The current electoral district of Tweed has existed since 1999. It was held by the ALP from 1999 to 2007 and by the Nationals since 2007.

Tweed replaced the district of Murwillumbah, which had taken up the northeastern corner of NSW from its creation in 1988 until 1999. It was held by Don Beck of the Nationals for its entire existence.

Beck had previously held the seat of Byron from 1984 to 1988. Byron had been a solid Country/National seat from 1927 until its abolition in 1988, when it was split into Ballina and Murwillumbah.

After Murwillumbah was replaced by Tweed at the 1999 election, Beck ran for the seat as the National Party candidate. He lost to the ALP candidate, Neville Newell.

A former teacher, Newell had won the federal seat of Richmond off National Party leader Charles Blunt at the 1990 election. He was re-elected in 1993 and lost his federal seat in 1996.

Newell won Tweed in 1999 with a 2.6% margin. This was increased in 2003 to 3.8%.

In 2007, Newell lost Tweed to Nationals candidate Geoff Provest. Provest was re-elected in 2011 and 2015.

Candidates

  • Craig Elliot (Labor)
  • Cheryl Froude (Greens)

Assessment
Tweed is a marginal Nationals seat and could be in play.

2015 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Provest Nationals 20,800 47.1 -15.0
Ron Goodman Labor 15,867 35.9 +14.5
Andrea Vickers Greens 5,864 13.3 -0.8
Kerrie Collins No Land Tax 1,042 2.4 +2.4
Michael Sichel Christian Democrats 618 1.4 -1.1
Informal 1,569 3.4

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Geoff Provest Nationals 21,508 53.2 -18.5
Ron Goodman Labor 18,931 46.8 +18.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Tweed have been split into four areas. The urban area in the north-eastern corner of the seat has been split between Tweed Heads in the north and Banora Point in the south. The remaining rural parts of the seat have been split into “West” and “South”.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 50.9% in Tweed Heads to 55.2% in the west. Labor won 50.8% in the south.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 11% in Banora Point to 18.8% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim % NAT 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 18.8 49.2 9,486 21.5
Banora Point 11.0 53.8 7,753 17.5
Tweed Heads 12.7 50.9 6,471 14.6
West 16.4 55.2 4,396 9.9
Other votes 16.1 55.7 5,638 12.8
Pre-poll 7.5 55.4 10,447 23.6

Election results in Tweed at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

2 COMMENTS

  1. It confuses me as to why the Liberals don’t run in this seat instead of the Nationals. Tweed Heads is basically a suburb of the Gold Coast. It’s not a regional/rural area and isn’t really Nationals territory. The north of the electorate is Liberal/conservative leaning in line with the Gold Coast while the south is Greens/progressive in line with the Ballina and Richmond electorates. The Nationals just don’t seem like a good fit for this seat at all. I can see this falling to Labor on the back of a strong flow of Greens preferences.

  2. This seat is in Richmond right? (Federal), Nevertheless i see this going back to Labor since allot of these traditional labor seats that was lost in 2011, Some are still in the Coalition’s hands i see seats like This and East hills be swept back the ALP, Labor gain

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here