Seven Hills – NSW 2019

LIB 8.7%

Incumbent MP
Mark Taylor, since 2015.

Geography
North-western Sydney. Most of Seven Hills is contained in the Blacktown and Parramatta council areas, along with a small part of the Hills shire. Seven Hills covers the suburbs of Constitution Hill, Kings Langley, Northmead, Seven Hills, Toongabbie, Winston Hills and parts of Lalor Park, Wentworthville and Westmead.

History
Seven Hills primarily replaced Toongabbie in 2015, which had itself replaced the abolished seat of Wentworthville, which had existed from 1962 to 1991 and again from 1999 to 2007.

The first seat of Wentworthville was won in 1962 by Ernie Quinn. He held the seat for the ALP until his retirement in 1988.

Wentworthville was won in 1988 by ALP candidate Pam Allan. Wentworthville was abolished in 1991, and she shifted to the seat of Blacktown. She served as Minister for the Environment in the first term of the Carr government from 1995 to 1999, before returning to the backbench.

In 1999, Wentworthville was restored, and Allan moved back to the seat. She held it until her retirement in 2007.

The newly-created seat of Toongabbie was won in 2007 by Nathan Rees, a former advisor to Premier Morris Iemma. He was immediately appointed to the ministry following the 2007 election.

In 2008, Morris Iemma resigned under pressure from party powerbrokers, and the party elected Rees as their leader and Premier.

He served as Premier for only 15 months, before he was voted out by the ALP caucus in December 2009. Rees was re-elected in 2011 by a slim 0.3% margin.

Rees retired in 2015, and Liberal candidate Mark Taylor won the redrawn seat of Seven Hills.

Candidates

Assessment
Seven Hills is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but could be a stretch goal for Labor.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mark Taylor Liberal 23,78949.7+1.3
Susai Benjamin Labor 15,58032.5-0.5
Balaji Naranapatti Greens 3,4147.1-0.5
Brendon PrenticeChristian Democrats2,1704.5-0.3
Leonard BrownIndependent1,1322.4+2.4
Jennifer SheahanNo Land Tax1,0512.2+2.2
Indira DeviIndependent7441.6+1.6
Informal1,9273.9

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mark Taylor Liberal 25,33758.70.0
Susai Benjamin Labor 17,79141.30.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Seven Hills have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west. The ‘west’ area covers all of those booths in the City of Blacktown.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.7% in the south-east to 66.9% in the north-east.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West57.413,73928.7
North-East66.910,42321.8
South-East52.710,24121.4
Other votes58.210,99323.0
Pre-poll58.82,4845.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Seven Hills at the 2015 NSW state election

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15 COMMENTS

  1. if I remember correctly there was a slight swing to the libs here. that is no correction for 2011….. The seat on previous boundaries sometimes had a 10 + % alp margin… could be close

  2. I think the swing to the Libs (or lack of swing to Labor) was due to:

    a) Loss of Nathan Rees’ personal vote.

    b) The Labor candidate in 2015, who had some very ‘interesting’ views on domestic violence and sexual abuse.

  3. When you compare with corresponding results in federal booths its is a stand out seat must win for the ALP.

    Theoretically, should have an easier run here than in some other lib seats with closer margins.

  4. There was an electorate of Seven Hills previously in 1981-91 sign of changing times that it was safe Labor even in 1988.

  5. This should be a Coalition Retain. Mark Taylor has developed a good local support and has the strength in numbers of the big booths in the old Baulkham Hills side of the electorate.

    The Margin will come down, I estimate to about 5%.

  6. looking at the pendulum……….. seats with Margins up to 10% are possible………… with some up to 16% (Bathurst) are also possible alp gains……. this is a good example………. inflated margin…… a possible 10% plus margin in the old Toongabbie………. and troubles with Labor’s 2015 candidate suggest this seat could change hands. The Liberal govt as time passes looks more and more accident prone

  7. Yes, ^ I agree mick, this seat will likely be a labor gain, allot of people seem to be underestimating labor’s strengh as they did in victoria, If labor gains this, (as i predict) there is no chance for Gladys to stay on as premier

  8. one of the 6 to 12% margin seats which is very competitive…………I suspect the opinion polls are underestimating the alp vote………… I would suspect the cluster of western suburbs seats that did not swing in 2015 will swing this time round more than the state swing

  9. Like Riverstone the demographics in this seat change by the month. It is ground zero for failed infrastructure: schools and roads being maxxed out while these four/five story flats replace suburban blocks at an incredible rate. Nothing in the history of this seat is any guide to the future. It is unrecognisable from what it was eighteen months ago, let alone four years. My guess is a big swing on the back of commuter/parent frustration.

  10. Could go either way, and Labor do MUCH better here federally, I’m calling this one a narrow Liberal hold.

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