Prospect – NSW 2019

ALP 3.4%

Incumbent MP
Hugh McDermott, since 2015.

Geography
Western Sydney. Prospect covers parts of Blacktown, Fairfield and Holroyd local council areas, including the suburbs of Bossley Park, Girraween, Greystanes, Pendle Hill, Pemulwuy, Prairiewood and parts of Blacktown, Smithfield, Toongabbie and Wetherill Park

History
Prospect was created as a new seat in 2015, but effectively replaced Smithfield, which had existed as an electoral district since 1988. It has been won by Labor at all but one election since 1988.

Smithfield was first won by Janice Crosio. She had won the seat of Fairfield in 1981 and 1984, moving to Smithfield in 1988. She had served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1984 to 1988. She resigned from Smithfield to run for the federal seat of Prospect. She held Prospect from 1990 to 2004. She served as a parliamentary secretary in the Labor federal government from 1993 to 1996.

The 1990 Smithfield by-election was won by Carl Scully. He joined the ministry when the ALP won power in 1995. He planned to run for leader of the ALP upon Bob Carr’s retirement in 2005, but withdrew when it was clear that Morris Iemma would win the contest. Scully was forced to resign as a minister in late 2006, and he retired from Smithfield in 2007.

Scully was succeeded in 2007 by Fairfield councillor Ninos Khoshaba. In 2011, he lost to Liberal candidate Andrew Rohan with a 20% swing.

Labor’s Hugh McDermott won the renamed seat of Prospect in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Prospect is a marginal Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Hugh McDermott Labor 21,15644.8+4.3
Andrew Rohan Liberal 18,15838.5-3.8
Sam GeorgisChristian Democrats3,3517.1-0.2
Sujan Selventhiran Greens 3,2146.8-0.4
Angelo EspositoNo Land Tax1,3452.8+2.8
Informal2,3934.8

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Hugh McDermott Labor 22,94653.4+4.5
Andrew Rohan Liberal 20,02746.6-4.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Prospect have been split into three parts: east, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.8% in the east to 56.9% in the north.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South52.513,61228.8
East50.811,21723.8
North56.98,18317.3
Other votes53.810,89823.1
Pre-poll56.43,3147.0

Two-party-preferred votes in Prospect at the 2015 NSW state election

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8 COMMENTS

  1. ”Prospect is a marginal Labor seat” What are you thinking? It is not Marginal, It is only marginal when the Liberal party does well, In the Bob Carr years this seat was Safe as it could be, So personally i see an ALP hold of 56-44, The Liberal party must get a 2011 result to snatch this back

  2. 56%??? I’d be surprised if the ALP gets much less than 60% here. If they do, they can almost kiss the election goodbye as it means they’ll have no hope in western suburbs seats they don’t hold like Seven Hills, Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone and Holsworthy and will have to rely on gains in the country.

  3. 56%??? I’d be surprised if the ALP gets less than 60% here. If they do, they can almost kiss the election goodbye as it means they’ll have no hope in western suburbs seats they don’t hold like Seven Hills, Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone and Holsworthy and will have to rely on gains in the country.

  4. Don’t be surprised if this seat ends up being a smokey for an upset. Hugh McDermott has been targetted in a major way due to his behaviour and, in particular, the medals scandal.

    Word is Andy Rohan may run again and he is quite popular in the seat as well.

  5. Liberals wont win this you must be dreaming Hawkeye this seat is safe for Labor usually, its only close because of Labor doing poorly

  6. Isn’t Andrew Rohan still suspended from the Liberal Party for running (successfully!) on Dai Le’s ticket for Fairfield Council? Or have they reconciled since then?

  7. Until the identity of the Liberal candidate is known, hard to gauge the actual 2PP here. If Rohan was to run again, he would make things interesting, but that would be about it.

    Historically, when the boundaries were trending towards the Fairfield LGA almost in entirety, the real 2PP, notwithstanding Carl Scully, is somewhere between 60-64% 2PP. With these newish boundaries, I would say maybe more 56-60% Labor at peak, as the Holroyd element of the seat is more Liberal-leaning.

    McDermott is a good MP, better than what Khoshaba and Rohan ever were. I don’t see any reason bar any scandal, why he would not retain the seat comfortably

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