Manly – NSW 2019

LIB 24.5% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
James Griffin, since 2017.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Manly covers all of Manly Council and southeastern parts of Warringah Council. It covers the suburbs of Manly, Balgowlah, Seaforth, Queenscliff, Curl Curl and parts of Brookvale.

History
The seat of Manly has existed since the 1927 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party for most of that period. The ALP held the seat for six years in the 1970s and 1980s, and independent MPs held Manly from 1991 to 2007.

The seat was first won in 1927 by Alfred Reid of the United Australia Party, he held the seat until 1945, joining the Liberal Party shortly before his death in 1945.

The 1945 Manly by-election was won by Liberal candidate Douglas Darby. He was at the right-wing end of the Liberal Party, and sat as an independent Liberal from 1962 to 1968. He held the seat as a Liberal from 1968 to 1978, when he retired.

The 1978 election was a landslide for the Labor Party, and Manly was won by the ALP’s Alan Stewart. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984 to Liberal candidate David Hay.

Hay was re-elected in 1988, and became a minister in the Greiner Coalition government.

In 1991, Hay was challenged by independent Manly councillor Peter Macdonald, who won the seat.

Macdonald was re-elected in 1995, and stepped down in 1999. He was succeeded by David Barr, another independent who had been elected to Manly Council on Macdonald’s independent ticket. Macdonald later won election as Mayor of Manly in 2004, serving one term until he was defeated in 2008.

Barr served two terms as the independent Member for Manly. In 2007, he was defeated by Liberal candidate Mike Baird.

The son of former state minister and federal MP Bruce Baird, Baird won a fierce preselection against Michael Darby, son of former Manly MP Douglas Darby.

Baird was promoted to serve as Shadow Treasurer in 2008, and became Treasurer when the Coalition won power in 2011.

When Barry O’Farrell resigned as Premier in April 2014, Baird was elected Liberal leader and Premier.

Baird led the Coalition to a second term in government in 2015, and resigned as Premier in early 2017. He retired from parliament shortly afterwards.

The 2017 by-election was won by Liberal candidate James Griffin.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Manly is a safe Liberal seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mike Baird Liberal 32,16068.0-2.2
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 8,10317.1-0.7
Jennifer Jary Labor 6,09812.9+2.5
Rod JamiesonNo Land Tax5171.1+1.1
Annie WrightChristian Democrats4200.9-0.8
Informal1,0312.1

2015 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mike Baird Liberal 32,84874.5-2.5
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 11,23325.5+2.5

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Mike Baird Liberal 33,42678.4+1.4
Jennifer Jary Labor 9,20921.6-1.4

2017 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
James Griffin Liberal 18,77543.8-24.2
Kathryn RidgeIndependent9,33221.8+21.8
Clara Williams Roldan Greens 7,85518.3+1.2
Ron DelezioIndependent2,3755.5+5.5
Kerry BromsonVoluntary Euthanasia1,0872.5+2.5
Ellie RobertsonAnimal Justice9462.2+2.2
Haris JackmanIndependent7671.8+1.8
Annie WrightChristian Democrats7591.8+0.9
John CookIndependent3060.7+0.7
Brian ClareIndependent2940.7+0.7
W BushIndependent2080.5+0.5
Victor WatersonIndependent1230.3+0.3
Informal1,1432.6

2017 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
James Griffin Liberal 20,18760.5
Kathryn RidgeIndependent13,15839.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Manly have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all three areas at the 2015 election, ranging from 71.1% in the south-east to 77.8% in the south-west.

Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.3% in the south-west to 14.6% in the north.

The Liberal Party also won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against independent Kathryn Ridge) in all three areas at the 2017 by-election, ranging from 52% in the south-east to 61.3% in the south-west.

The Greens came third at the 2017 by-election, with a primary vote ranging from 16% in the south-west to 20% in the south-east.

2015 booth breakdown

Voter groupALP prim %LIB 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North14.673.414,70531.1
South-West10.377.812,17525.7
South-East12.871.16,08412.9
Other votes12.673.910,36521.9
Pre-poll15.475.33,9698.4

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North19.660.413,65731.9
South-West16.061.311,96427.9
South-East20.052.06,07214.2
Other votes19.371.35,37112.5
Pre-poll17.559.25,76313.5

Election results in Manly at the 2015 state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Liberal vs Greens) votes and Labor primary votes.

Election results at the 2017 Manly by-election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred (Liberal vs independent) votes and Greens primary votes.

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