Lake Macquarie – NSW 2019

IND 10.7% vs ALP

Incumbent MP
Greg Piper, since 2007.

Geography
Hunter. Lake Macquarie covers those parts of the City of Lake Macquarie on the west side of Lake Macquarie itself, as well as parts of the City to the north of the lake. The seat covers Cardiff, Morriset, Toronto and Fassifern.

History
The electoral district of Lake Macquarie has existed since 1950. The seat was held by the ALP from 1950 until the 2007 election.

Jim Simpson won the seat in 1950. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1956 until the government lost power in 1965. He held the seat until his death in 1968.

The 1969 by-election was won by Lake Macquarie Shire President Merv Hunter. He held the seat until his retirement in 1991. He was succeeded by his son Jeff Hunter. He won re-election in 1995, 1999 and 2003.

In 2007, Hunter was defeated by independent Lake Macquarie Mayor Greg Piper by 106 votes. Piper was re-elected much more comfortably in 2011 and 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Lake Macquarie is reasonably safe for Greg Piper, although a surge in support for Labor could weaken his position.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Greg PiperIndependent20,25142.5+1.1
Melissa Cleary Labor 14,62530.7+10.2
Daniel Collard Liberal 8,00716.8-10.6
Ivan Macfadyen Greens 2,3635.0-1.7
Susan StrainAnimal Justice1,1432.4+2.4
Kim GrittenChristian Democrats8981.9-0.9
Andrew CoroneoNo Land Tax4120.9+0.9
Informal1,5963.2

2015 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Greg PiperIndependent24,15260.7
Melissa Cleary Labor 15,64639.3

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melissa Cleary Labor 19,30963.2+20.6
Daniel Collard Liberal 11,26236.8-20.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Lake Macquarie have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

Independent MP Greg Piper won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against Labor) in all three areas, ranging fro 52% in the north to 67.4% in the south.

The Liberal primary vote ranged from 14.6% in the centre to 17.6% in the south.

Voter groupLIB prim %IND 2CP %Total votes% of votes
North14.752.013,36328.0
Central14.661.19,81720.6
South17.667.48,59618.0
Other votes20.457.28,26717.3
Pre-poll18.371.17,65616.1

Election results in Lake Macquarie at the 2015 NSW state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Labor) and Liberal primary votes.


Become a Patron!

6 COMMENTS

  1. Disagree. I see this as an IND hold. The Coalition, I think, will strategically send preferences to Piper over Labor. Piper received 1/3 of the preferences available in this seat at the last election, with the vast majority of the votes left over exhausting.

    Labor will need some strong preference flows to win this seat or take votes off the Coalition or Piper and I don’t see it happening.

  2. If the swing to Labor – state and federal – is more anti-Liberal than pro-Labor fuelled, then don’t expect Labor to be taking seats off independents.

    I don’t see either Lake Macquarie or Denison falling.

  3. As a resident in this electorate, I can tell you Mr Piper will retain this seat. His support ranges from the left to the right, and he is very active in the community.

  4. Piper is a very popular local MP and I wouldn’t bet against him. I think the issue of who he backs in a minority government scenario could become an issue and if I were campaigning for Labor, I’d be pressing him on this. Preference flows will make it tough for Labor, but it will be close.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here