Cootamundra – NSW 2019

NAT 20.4%

Incumbent MP
Steph Cooke, since 2017.

Geography
South-western NSW. Cootamundra covers the towns of Cootamundra, Gundagai, Young, Cowra, West Wyalong and Narrandera, amongst others, in the area between Wagga Wagga, Yass, Griffith and Forbes. Cootamundra covers the Bland, Coolamon, Cootamundra, Cowra, Gundagai, Harden, Junee, Narrandera, Temora, Weddin and Young council areas.

History
Cootamundra was created in 2015, taking in parts of the former seats of Burrinjuck and Murrumbidgee.

The electoral district of Burrinjuck existed from 1950 to 2015. It was a Labor seat from 1950 to 1988, a Liberal seat from 1988 to 1998, and a National Party seat from 1999 until 2015.

Burrinjuck was won in 1999 by National Party candidate Katrina Hodgkinson. She held the seat until it was abolished in 2015.

Murrumbidgee was dominated by the ALP in the middle part of the last century, but has been held by the National Party since 1984.

 

Murrumbidgee was held by the National Party’s Adrian Piccoli from 1999 until 2015, when he shifted to the seat of Murray.

Hodgkinson won Cootamundra in 2015. She resigned from parliament in 2017, and the 2017 by-election was won by Nationals candidate Steph Cooke.

Candidates

  • Matthew Stadtmiller (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)

Assessment
Cootamundra is a safe Nationals seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Katrina Hodgkinson Nationals 31,08065.9-8.8
Charlie Sheahan Labor 12,25326.0+9.3
Rod Therkelsen Greens 1,6423.5-1.9
Elio CacciottiNo Land Tax1,1182.4+2.4
Philip LangfieldChristian Democrats1,0722.3-0.9
Informal1,3052.7

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Katrina Hodgkinson Nationals 31,89670.4-9.9
Charlie Sheahan Labor 13,40029.6+9.9

2017 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steph Cooke Nationals 21,09346.2-19.6
Charlie Sheahan Labor 10,93024.0-2.0
Matthew StadtmillerShooters, Fishers & Farmers10,62123.3+23.3
Philip LangfieldChristian Democrats1,2732.8+0.5
Jeffrey Passlow Greens 1,2382.7-0.8
Jim SaleamIndependent4531.0+1.0
Informal1,0572.3

2017 by-election two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steph Cooke Nationals 24,11460.5-10.0
Charlie Sheahan Labor 15,76939.5+10.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Cootamundra have been split into four parts: north-east (including Young and Cowra), north-west (including West Wyalong), south-east (including Cootamundra and Gundagai) and south-west (including Junee and Narrandera).

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 61% in the south-east to 78.4% in the north-west.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas at the 2017 by-election, ranging from 62.4% in the north-east to 73.8% in the north-west. Labor polled 66.5% in the south-east.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers polled strongly at the 2017 by-election, ranging from 19.4% in the south-west to 31.9% in the south-east.

2015 booth breakdown

Voter groupNAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East73.211,14523.6
South-West71.69,80520.8
South-East61.06,78314.4
North-West78.42,6415.6
Other votes71.48,00317.0
Pre-poll69.88,78818.6

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupSFF prim %NAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East24.262.48,52118.7
South-West19.467.28,45618.5
South-East31.933.55,37111.8
North-West26.773.81,9954.4
Other votes20.867.05,27711.6
Pre-poll22.361.115,98835.1

Two-party-preferred votes in Cootamundra at the 2015 NSW state election

Election results at the 2017 Cootamundra by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Shooters, Farmers & Fishers primary votes.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. ”Cootamundra is a safe Nationals seat.”
    How so Ben? You do realised the Margin was halved at the By-election right? And Labor was trailing the polls narrowly when this By-election was held

  2. The AEC has standard definitions that they use for marginal, safe, etc.
    Most commentators use the same definitions.

    Marginal – A seat where the elected candidate received less than 56 per cent of the vote.
    Fairly safe – A seat where the elected candidate received between 56 per cent and 60 per cent of the vote.
    Safe – A seat where the elected candidate received more than 60 per cent of the vote.

    The definitions can be found in the glossary – http://www.aec.gov.au/footer/Glossary.htm

    Hope this helps.

  3. By-elections often tend to produce aberrant results, so using them as any sort of baseline is bad psephology.

    This is a safe Nat seat whichever way you cut it.

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