Blacktown – NSW 2019

ALP 13.2%

Incumbent MP
Stephen Bali, since 2017.

Geography
Western Sydney. The seat covers central parts of the City of Blacktown, including the suburbs of Blacktown, Doonside, Kings Park, Marayong, Woodcroft and parts of Lalor Park and Seven Hills.

History
The electoral district of Blacktown has existed continuously since 1941. With the exception of the 1959 election, it has always been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1941 by the ALP’s Frank Hill, who held it until 1945. The by-election was won by John Freeman, who held the seat until 1959. In 1959 Blacktown was redistributed into a marginal seat, and Freeman retired after failing to win preselection for the new seat of Merrylands.

The Liberal Party’s Alfred Dennis won Blacktown in 1959, but the next redistribution in 1962 largely reversed the changes, making Blacktown stronger for the ALP. Dennis lost preselection for the new safe Liberal seat of The Hills, and ran for the seat unsuccessfully as an independent.

Jim Southee won Blacktown for the ALP in 1962. He held the seat until 1971, when he moved to the new seat of Mount Druitt, which he held until his retirement in 1973.

Gordon Barnier won Blacktown in 1971. At the 1981 election, he lost preselection to John Aquilina.

Aquilina became a minister for the final two years of the Labor state government from 1986 to 1988. In 1991 he moved to Riverstone, which he held until 2011. He served as a minister from 1995 to 2003 and as Speaker from 2003 to 2007.

In 1991, the seat of Wentworthville was abolished, and Pam Allan, who had won Wentworthville in 1988, moved to Blacktown. She served as a minister in the first term of the Carr government, and held Blacktown until 1999. In 1999 she returned to a recreated Wentworthville, holding it until 2007.

Blacktown was won in 1999 by Paul Gibson, a former rugby league player and Member for Londonderry since 1988. Gibson was appointed a minister following the 2007 state election, but never took office, as allegations of an assault sixteen years earlier against his former partner saw him stood down.

Gibson retired in 2011, and was replaced as Labor MP by John Robertson. Robertson had been a member of the Legislative Council since 2008, and before that secretary of Unions NSW for seven years. Robertson had served as a minister while sitting in the Legislative Council.

Following the 2011 election, Robertson was elected leader of the NSW Labor Party. He served as Leader of the Opposition until he resigned as leader in December 2014.

Robertson was re-elected in 2015, but resigned in 2017. He was succeeded at the 2017 by-election by former Blacktown mayor Stephen Bali.

Candidates

Assessment
Blacktown is a safe Labor seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
John Robertson Labor 24,91653.9+9.5
Raman Bhalla Liberal 14,25030.8-5.3
David Bate Greens 2,9376.3+0.8
Meena HannaChristian Democrats2,7505.9+0.2
Julia CacciottiNo Land Tax1,4113.0+3.0
Informal2,2624.7

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
John Robertson Labor 26,67963.2+9.0
Raman Bhalla Liberal 15,54736.8-9.0

2017 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Stephen Bali Labor 31,03171.6+17.7
Josh GreenChristian Democrats6,54015.1+9.1
Chris Winslow Greens 3,8258.8+2.5
Vivek SinghaIndependent1,9664.5+4.5
Informal2,2294.9

2017 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Stephen Bali Labor 33,20882.3
Josh GreenChristian Democrats7,15417.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Blacktown have been split into three parts: east, south and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at the 2015 election, ranging from 60.9% in the east to 64.3% in the west.

Labor won very large majorities of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Christian Democratic Party) at the 2017 by-election, ranging from 82.2% in the east to 83.1% in the south.

2015 booth breakdown

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West64.314,86728.9
South62.710,14019.7
East60.96,02611.7
Other votes61.58,86317.2
Pre-poll65.86,36812.4

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
West82.614,88034.3
South83.18,71420.1
East82.24,90311.3
Other votes81.64,0979.4
Pre-poll81.610,76824.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Blacktown at the 2015 NSW state election

Two-party-preferred votes at the 2017 Blacktown by-election

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1 COMMENT

  1. Blacktown Councillor Allan Green is the Liberal Candidate.

    Has served for two decades. Not expecting much of a swing back to Labor here. There vote was quite high from last time as a result of it being the seat of the former leader.

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