Bega – NSW 2019

LIB 8.2%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Constance, since 2011.

Geography
South-eastern NSW. Bega covers all of Eurobodalla and Bega Valley shires. The seat covers the towns of Bega, Eden, Batemans Bay and Moruya.

History
Bega in its current form has existed since 1988. It has always been held by the Liberal Party. A seat of the same name also existed from 1894 to 1920.

The seat was won in 1988 by the Liberal Party’s Russell Smith. He held the seat until his retirement in 2003.

Andrew Constance has held Bega since 2003 for the Liberal Party. Constance has served as a minister since 2011, and as Minister for Transport since the 2015 election.

Candidates

  • Leanne Atkinson (Labor)
  • Assessment
    While Bega has been continuously in Liberal hands since 1988, the seat has become more marginal relative to the rest of the state, and is now ranked twelfth most marginal on the Coalition list. If there was a large swing to Labor it could be vulnerable but it seems more likely that constance will hold on in 2019.

    2015 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Andrew Constance Liberal 25,37953.2-5.1
    Leanne Atkinson Labor 15,65232.8+10.7
    Margaret Perger Greens 4,81710.1-2.0
    Clyde ArchardNo Land Tax1,1382.4+2.4
    Ursula BennettChristian Democrats6831.4-0.2
    Informal1,4272.9

    2015 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Andrew Constance Liberal 26,02358.2-10.3
    Leanne Atkinson Labor 18,69641.8+10.3

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Bega have been split into four parts. Each local government area in the electorate was split into north and south halves. The town of Bega is contained in Bega Valley North, and Batemans Bay is contained in Eurobodalla North.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51% in Bega Valley North to 61% in Bega Valley South.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 9.1% in the northern and southern ends of the seat to 13% in the northern end of Bega Valley.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Eurobodalla North9.158.69,65620.3
    Bega Valley South9.160.98,41417.7
    Bega Valley North13.251.26,74314.1
    Eurobodalla South11.356.34,1228.6
    Other votes12.459.27,66016.1
    Pre-poll7.960.111,07423.2

    Election results in Bega at the 2015 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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    5 COMMENTS

    1. Interesting to compare the Bega map with the Eden-Monaro map. Mike Kelly won all bar two of the corresponding federal booths. And whilst EM doesn’t include Bateman’s Bay, it’s no more (or less) strong than Merimbula is.

      One to watch.

    2. I now see from the Gilmore profile that the northern part this district also has several booths that vote Labor federally. So that’s no comfort for Constance either.

    3. yes my thoughts exactly………David did you calculate project Bega based on EM vote?
      suspect better than 54% ALP

    4. Following analysis it is my view is that if the E-M vote for Labor in 2016 held up in Bega, Labor would go close to winning. The difficulty is that Greens preferences would be required to flow strongly to Labor for them to win. However, optional proportional preferencing in NSW elections make this a difficult but not impossible task.

    5. Good luck with that thought David. Optional preferntial kills any chance of anything other than a safe return of Constance – keep reviewing that algorithm with Mick I’m sure its fun times!!

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