Baulkham Hills – NSW 2019

LIB 21.8%

Incumbent MP
David Elliott, since 2011.

Geography
North-western Sydney. Baulkham Hills covers southern parts of the Hills Shire, including the suburbs of Bella Vista, Baulkham Hills and parts of Carlingford, Castle Hill, Kellyville, North Rocks and West Pennant Hills.

History
The seat of Baulkham Hills has existed since 1991. It has always been a safe Liberal seat. Prior to 1991, much of the same area had been covered by Carlingford from its creation in 1988 to its abolition in 1991.

Carlingford was won in 1988 by Liberal candidate Wayne Merton. Merton then won the new seat of Baulkham Hills in 1991, and held it until retiring in 2011. He served as a minister in the state Coalition government from 1992 to 1993.

While there have been two seats in the Hills since 1988, and they have both been solid Liberal seats, the boundaries of those seats have shifted. The other seat in the area was called The Hills until 2007, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.

Following Merton’s retirement in 2011, Baulkham Hills was won by the Liberal Party’s David Elliott. Elliott was re-elected in 2015.

Candidates

  • Ryan Tracey (Labor)

Assessment
Baulkham Hills is a very safe Liberal seat.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
David Elliott Liberal 31,79364.5-3.1
Ryan Tracey Labor 10,92022.2+5.9
Alice Suttie Greens 3,8947.9-2.0
Kaia ThorpeChristian Democrats1,6863.4-0.9
Neil HoldenNo Land Tax9732.0+2.0
Informal1,3902.7

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
David Elliott Liberal 33,02171.8-6.6
Ryan Tracey Labor 12,97528.2+6.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Baulkham Hills have been split into three parts: central, east and north.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 70.5% in the centre to 73.4% in the north.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central70.514,03228.5
East72.311,82024.0
North73.49,86020.0
Other votes70.410,39121.1
Pre-poll74.73,1636.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Baulkham Hills at the 2015 NSW state election

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