Wollongong – NSW 2015

ALP 9.3%

Incumbent MP
Noreen Hay, since 2003.

Geography
Wollongong covers the Wollongong city centre, as well as surrounding suburbs including Berkeley, Lake Heights, Port Kembla and Unanderra.

Map of Wollongong's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Wollongong’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Wollongong gained a small part of Figtree from Keira, and lost Kanahooka and Dombarton to Shellharbour. These changes increased Labor’s two-party-preferred margin from 8.9% to 9.3%.

History
The current electoral district of Wollongong has existed since 1968. Previous districts with the name of Wollongong existed from 1904 to 1920 and from 1927 to 1930. The current district has been dominated by the ALP, who have won the seat at all but three elections.

Wollongong was created in 1968 when the seat of Wollongong-Kembla was split between Wollongong and Kembla. Wollongong-Kembla had been held by the ALP continuously from its creation in 1941 until 1965, when it was won by the Liberal Party’s Jack Hough. Hough won the renamed seat of Wollongong in 1968, but lost in 1971.

Eric Ramsay won Wollongong in 1971. He held the seat safely throughout the 1970s, narrowly defeating independent Wollongong mayor Frank Arkell.

In 1984, Ramsay retired, and Arkell won the seat. He was re-elected in 1988, but lost the seat with a swing to the ALP in 1991. Arkell was murdered in 1998.

Wollongong was won in 1991 by the ALP’s Gerry Sullivan. He held the seat until 1999, when the ALP gave preselection in Wollongong to Col Markham, who had held the neighbouring seat of Keira since 1988.

Markham was defeated for Labor preselection in 2003 by Noreen Hay. She served as a parliamentary secretary from 2007 to 2008.

At the 2011 election, independent candidate Gordon Bradbery challenged Hay, and came within 700 votes of winning. Bradbery was elected Lord Mayor of Wollongong in 2012.

Candidates

Assessment
Noreen Hay came very close to losing to independent Bradbery in 2011. This time around, she is now also being challenged by Arthur Rorris, the Secretary of the South Coast Labour Council (who is being backed by Bradbery). Hay could have a lot of trouble retaining her seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Noreen Hay Labor 16,060 35.6 -22.7 36.5
Gordon Bradbery Independent 13,299 29.5 +29.5 26.3
Michelle Blicavs Liberal 9,124 20.2 +3.5 21.4
Brendan Cook Greens 4,315 9.6 -0.2 9.8
Jim Clabour Independent 1,143 2.5 +2.5 2.3
Clarrie Pratt Christian Democrats 1,127 2.5 -3.1 2.6
Others 1.1

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Redist
Noreen Hay Labor 18,085 50.9 51.6
Gordon Bradbery Independent 17,411 49.1 48.4

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Noreen Hay Labor 19,656 58.9 -16.4 59.3
Michelle Blicavs Liberal 13,717 41.1 +16.4 40.7
Polling places in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election. North-East in green, South-East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Wollongong have been split into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.

The Labor vote ranged from 48.8% in the south-east to 30.9% in the north-east.

Independent Gordon Bradbery’s vote ranged from 22.3% in the south-east to 31.9% in the west.

The Liberal vote ranged from 15.9% in the south-east to 23.2% in the north-east, and the Greens vote ranged from 7.1% int he west to 12.2% in the north-east.

Voter group ALP % IND % LIB % GRN % Total % of votes
North-East 30.9 26.7 23.2 12.2 12,071 25.1
West 36.3 31.9 19.1 7.1 11,946 24.9
South-East 48.8 22.3 15.9 8.7 9,786 20.4
Other votes 33.0 24.1 25.5 10.9 14,266 29.7
Labor primary votes in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Gordon Bradbery in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election.
Liberal primary votes in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election.
Liberal primary votes in Wollongong at the 2011 NSW state election.

18 COMMENTS

  4. My prediction: Safe for Labor in theory, although if Arthur Rorris holds most of Gordon Bradbery’s 2011 vote, and picks up a few Liberal votes, this could become interesting… I’ll class this as a Labor hold for now.

  5. I tend to think a lot of Bradberrys votes came from disaffected Labor voters. So I expect Hay to be returned

  7. What is the issue with Labor down here? They seem to attract Independents and breakaway Labor people challenging them in their local seats. I remember in the Cunningham by-election they had some ex-Labor Independent run and help the Greens win the seat.

    Is it internal/factional stuff? Is it “old” Wollongong (working class, union heavy) vs “new” Wollongong (tertiary education, Sydney tree changer, Green-friendly)? Or what?

  8. No Mark the problem lies with the sitting member, who is a much controversial candidate who should have left or have been tipped out at the last election because of her closeness to Joe Tripodi (who has since been expelled from the party for corruption charges) and incident with former Police Minister Matt Brown (which I will leave you to find out), Noreen Hay is also the parliamentary leader of the dominant Right faction (although she had started out in the Left faction but after her preselection quickly defected to the Right) and is deeply socially conservative, evidenced by her attempt to have Throsby MP Stephen Jones challenged for a local preselection ballot (which he won anyway) partly because of their opposing views on marriage equality. So, if Rorris can take Bradbery’s vote and build on it he is in with a chance, as many disaffected Labor voters are still sick of the stench surrounding the sitting member, who should have left a long time ago.

  9. There’s an old left blue-collar industrial culture here with decline of ALP left & shift of ALP to right this tradition has impelled support for lefty independents

  10. The failure to replace Hay is really exhibit A in the NSW ALP’s failure to reform itself since 2011.

  11. I wonder if at any election forums will Noreen refuse to ask any hairy questions directed at her, especially regarding her close mate Joe Tripodi whi has since been booted out of the ALP.

  12. If Labor are able to improve their primary vote (which I tend to think will happen), that will make it very hard for Rorris to win from behind, especially with Optional Preferential voting.

  15. I have to laugh at all the keyboard warriors on here….who lack the guts and courage to repeat this vile diatribe out in the open! If what youre saying is true….then come out in the open and say it (and face legal recourse)or keep your baseless opinion to yourself Jack. By the way….is that an acronym for ‘Jack off’?? because it appears that is the only area you appera to be qualified in!!

  17. Rorris is a good candidate, but I wouldn’t think better than Bradbury.

    I have no love for Hay, but she’ll probably win pretty comfortably.

  18. So long as there are Liberals and so-called Christian so-called Democrats on the voting slip Noreen Hay will ever get my lowest preference, but her opposition to marriage equality is enough to deny her a ‘1’.

Comments are closed.