Strathfield – NSW 2015

LIB 6.4%

Incumbent MP
Charles Casuscelli, since 2011.

Geography
Inner West Sydney. Strathfield covers parts of Ashfield, Burwood, Canada Bay, Canterbury and Strathfield local government areas, specifically the suburbs of Croydon, Burwood, Enfield, Homebush and Strathfield.

Map of Strathfield's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Strathfield’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Strathfield shifted west, losing parts of Ashfield and Summer Hill to Summer Hill, gaining Croydon Park from Canterbury and gaining the remainder of Homebush and parts of North Strathfield from Drummoyne. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 4.4% to 6.4%.

History
The electoral district of Strathfield has existed since 1988. The seat was held until 1999 by the Liberal Party, and by Labor from 1999 to 2011, when the Liberal Party won it back.

It was first won in 1988 by Paul Zammit. He had won the seat of Burwood in 1984, holding it for one term before it was abolished. Burwood had been held by conservative candidates for close to a century before the ALP won it in 1978.

Zammit served as a junior minister in the Coalition state government from 1991 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Strathfield and won the federal seat of Lowe. He only held it for one term, as he resigned from the Liberal Party in 1998 in protest over aircraft noise. He ran as an independent in Lowe at the 1998 federal election, losing to the ALP’s John Murphy.

The 1996 Strathfield by-election was won by the Liberal Party’s Bruce McCarthy.

Prior to the 1999 election, Strathfield was redrawn to take in parts of the abolished Labor seat of Ashfield, cutting back McCarthy’s margin.

At the 1999 election, McCarthy lost to the ALP’s Paul Whelan, the sitting Member for Ashfield. Whelan had held Ashfield since the 1976 election. He had served as a minister in the Wran Labor government from 1981 to 1984. He served as Minister for Police from 1995 to 2001, and as Leader of the House until 2003, when he retired.

Whelan was succeeded by Strathfield mayor Virginia Judge in 2003. She was re-elected in 2007, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2008 to 2011.

In 2011, Judge lost her seat to Liberal candidate Charles Casuscelli.

Candidates

Assessment
The Liberal Party will find it hard to retain Strathfield, despite the favourable redistribution. The 6.4% margin is relatively slim considering the circumstances, and the ALP has preselected a strong candidate in former Newcastle MP Jodi McKay. It is not yet clear whether McKay can win support in an area so far from her former electorate.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Charles Casuscelli Liberal 20,001 45.6 +16.3 47.9
Virginia Judge Labor 15,581 35.6 -16.6 34.5
Lance Dale Greens 5,805 13.2 +3.9 11.4
Bill Shailer Christian Democrats 1,268 2.9 -0.4 3.3
Mark Sharma Independent 1,173 2.7 +2.7 2.1
Others 0.8

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Charles Casuscelli Liberal 21,487 54.4 +19.5 56.4
Virginia Judge Labor 18,014 45.6 -19.5 43.6
Polling places in Strathfield at the 2011 NSW state election. East in green, South in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Strathfield at the 2011 NSW state election. East in green, South in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Strathfield have been split into three parts: east, south and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred votes in all three areas, ranging from 52.5% in the south to 62% in the west.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.4% in the west to 14.2% in the east.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
West 62.0 8.4 10,293 23.3
East 53.3 14.2 9,937 22.5
South 52.5 10.4 9,508 21.6
Other votes 57.8 12.2 14,350 32.5
Two-party-preferred votes in Strathfield at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Strathfield at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Strathfield at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Strathfield at the 2011 NSW state election.

18 COMMENTS

  1. Minor Labor gain.

    Strathfield used to be the North Shore of the Inner West. When my dad grew up here in the 1960’s when Billy McMahon was the MP for Lowe and he said yo could put a blue rosette on a pig and it would be elected.

    Now with a high amount of Asians it has changed the demographic and made it more Labor friendly, however probably seats like Willoughby would have the same amount of Asians and yet has become safer and safer for the Libs.

    Needless to say even in 1996, when Paul Zammit resigned it was a Liberal retain and even then there were still a lot of Asians. With Reid being a Liberal gain at the last federal election and with Jodi McKay being relatively unknown and parachuted in here annoying both Daniel Bott and John Faker I do think the swing here will be less here than in other areas as it is still quite affluent. Removing Ashfield and adding Concord West has made it better for the Libs also.

  2. You have to be careful with the comparison with Reid (which only covers about half this electorate). It’s interesting how Strathfield and Drummoyne have realigned. Previously Drummoyne was the Labor stronghold, held for 49 years including the Askin and Greiner/Fahey years (even the debacle of 1988). Whereas Strathfield (and its predecessor Burwood) was Liberal leaning. It was Liberal held in close elections like 1991 and 1995. Until 1999, it was had only been won by Labor at the two Wran-slide elections of 1978 & 1981.

    That’s now reversed itself. Drummoyne has a very strong Liberal margin and Strathfield a comparatively weak one. Craig Laundy’s best booths fell within Drummoyne. I expect the 2015 election to complete this realignment. Strathfield will be Labor held; Drummoyne Liberal.

    Jodi McKay is running a vigorous campaign. Clearly one of Labor’s top targets, I reckon this will be a comfortable Labor victory.

  3. It’s pretty important to note that despite the Drummoyne electorate profile not being uploaded yet, is that the ALP has pretty much given up all hope in Drummoyne, despite it’s history I don’t think they have much faith on overturning such a huge margin there.

    I think it they have chosen to focus their strength on seats such as Strathfield, Newtown and Balmain than try to regain Drummoyne. Driving down Lyons Road there are numerous corflutes for John Sidoti but absolutely none for the Labor candidate (whoever it is).

  4. Historically a Liberal seat until 1999 (Wranslides aside), this could stay with the Liberals, while seats further up fall to Labor. With the redistribution making Strathfield 2% better for Labor, along with Jodi McKay being parachuted in from Newcastle, I’m not making a call here yet.

  5. This seat is too close to call. This is a seat the ALP gains in recent years with strong wins. May go that way again.

  6. Agreed, too close to call (and this is the only inner west seat I’m not confident about). Just don’t know…

    Charles Causcelli has been closely associated with promoting the WestConnex. Its unpopular elsewhere in the inner west, but the motorway doesn’t play as a negative out here. Just try and drive on those roads where the M4 presently dumps all the traffic and you’ll see why!

    But if Jodi McKay was running in Drummoyne (my seat) I’d probably allow my heart to overrule my head and vote for her – the “sympathy vote!” She clearly got out clean from the Newcastle cesspit after being done over by Labor’s hard men, but I’m not sure that parachuting her into Strathfield was such a brilliant idea for them either. It certainly caused lots of bitterness and consternation in the local party. And not all that many voters will know or care what happened somewhere a long way away 5 years ago…

    Ironical too that the project she was championing in Newcastle then (a container transfer depot) would be hotly resisted by residents anywhere here! Of course, her opponents in the Hunter wanted something worse for the site (a coal loader), but it’s funny that Strathfield has just witnessed a ferocious resident’s Nimby campaign – against a university!

  7. She moved to the inner west after she lost so couldn’t exactly keep her running in the hunter. Where have you heard this bitterness Coco because I have heard none whatsoever, in fact I’ve often seen what look like branch members at train stations in the morning so that doesn’t represent the bitterness you convey. What people do care about is that in contrast to the corruption of 11 liberal MPs, Jodi did not fall in the same category and is a rare exception. I think its a bit silly to say that projects in Newcastle would be rejected in Strathfield when they are both completely different seats. I’d have to tip this a labor win given the reputation of Charles here as aggressive and downright rude and arrogant to people in the electorate.

  8. The perceptions of Jodi McKay offer an interesting lesson into how not just the general public, but even the more engaged political class, view and understand politics and political events.

    Jodi McKay, the former TV news-reader, began her political career by being installed by Sussex Street as Labor’s candidate for Newcastle in 2006, in order to oust the party’s sitting MP Bryce Gaudry. Gaudry was being ousted on the basis that he was a fierce opponent of the then Labor government’s plans for electricity privatisation and the closure of the Newcastle rail line.

    Come 2011, it apparently turned out she wasn’t sufficiently compliant herself with the wishes of the party bosses so some of them allegedly consipired to help defeat her, although her defeat may well have happened anyway. Then as Labor and the Coalition became embroiled in corruption scandals she was created as a media darling and ‘grassroots hero’ to what I might call the political twittering classes. So then, as befits her clearly genuine ‘grassroots hero’ stature, she was again installed by the party bosses as a candidate, this time in a new area, and with her party now professing the same policy positions they dumped Gaudry for holding.

    Am I the only person who finds the portrayal of McKay by the progressive political class as a ‘grassroots hero’ somewhat fake?

  9. Nick C the campaign against her was by labor individuals who stood to benefit post election, it had nothing to do with labor policy in general. She had a direct opportunity to have easy reelection by being bribed and corrupt. The reason she has a positive perception is because she directly rejected corruption in the face of defeat. Also you are not saying the real reason he was dumped which was a factional deal over giving two seats in western sydney to the left in return for Newcastle which they intended to give to Tate who didn’t have the courage to stand with the protest of the branches. So to try and say jodi is hypocritical because of Gaudry being dumped is simply wrong

  10. McKay put herself forward for the aborted Strathfield primary before the party fast-tracked her candidacy. This happened last October; it’s unclear why the process was left so late for such a key seat.

    McKay is the sort of candidate the Labor party needs more of. The stench of corruption is surely one reason why the Labor brand hasn’t recovered as quickly as in other states.

  11. Thanks Nick C and Observer for interesting POVs…

    Re. Observer, yes ,”bitterness” was too strong. I do know lots of political people (all parties) in the area, and “grumbling” would have been a better choice of words. John Faker (Mayor of Burwood) was going to stand, and my sources are just listening to what people say. Most Labor people seem just glad they are in with a chance (unlike in Drummoyne), but that would have been the case had Faker (or some other candidate with an equally high profile) stood. You are right, Causcelli comes across as abrasive, but only a tiny percentage of voters ever come into contact with their MPs or see those situations.

    Nick C, my knowledge of Jodi McKay is limited to one highly favourable article in the Fairfax press (hardly definitive, yep) plus the “perceptions” that you mention. She came to grief at the hands of people like Tripodi she must be on the side of the angels. Hmmm… Like a lot of people in NSW I’m going to have to be convinced to vote Labor again, and that’s not only on account of Obeid /Tripodi et al. McKay is the right candidate then – if those (admittedly shallow) perceptions can be converted into votes. Maybe they will be in Strathfield?

    So her elevation to “hero” status has been an interesting exercise, one that someone in that Fairfax media outlet agreed to participate in. What I would like to see is how she would handle one of the ferocious property value Nimby campaigns (like the one against the Catholic University) which totally dominates local politics here. The inner west ain’t Newcastle, that’s for sure!

  12. Jodi McKay has lived in the area for quite a while. I used to see her on my train when she was the member for Newcastle on a regular basis. My understanding was that she was living here the whole time. (Here as in Ashfield(ish).)

  14. Do we have a clear winner in Strathfield yet?
    I’ve sent messages to Labor and Liberal via Facebook and Twitter to no avail. The ABC 2015 Results page appears to be down this afternoon and I cannot find the latest numbers.

  16. McKay will go straight to the front bench. Interesting how her integrity in being beaten in 2011 was probably responsible for her winning in 2015.

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