LIB 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Rohan, Member for Smithfield since 2011.
Geography
Western Sydney. Prospect covers parts of Blacktown, Fairfield and Holroyd local council areas, including the suburbs of Bossley Park, Girraween, Greystanes, Pendle Hill, Pemulwuy, Prairiewood and parts of Blacktown, Smithfield, Toongabbie and Wetherill Park
Redistribution
Prospect is a new name for Smithfield, after the seat shifted north, gaining Girraween, Pendle Hill, Prospect, and parts of Toongabbie from the seat of Toongabbie, as well as southern parts of Mount Druitt and Blacktown. At the other end, Prospect lost Edensor Park and Greenfield Park to Cabramatta and lost Erskine Park to Mulgoa. These changes significantly cut the Liberal margin from 4.8% for Smithfield to 1.1% for the new seat.
History
Smithfield has existed as an electoral district since 1988. It was held by Labor continuously from 1988 to 2011, when it was won by the Liberal Party for the first time.
Smithfield was first won by Janice Crosio. She had won the seat of Fairfield in 1981 and 1984, moving to Smithfield in 1988. She had served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1984 to 1988. She resigned from Smithfield to run for the federal seat of Prospect. She held Prospect from 1990 to 2004. She served as a parliamentary secretary in the Labor federal government from 1993 to 1996.
The 1990 Smithfield by-election was won by Carl Scully. He joined the ministry when the ALP won power in 1995. He planned to run for leader of the ALP upon Bob Carr’s retirement in 2005, but withdrew when it was clear that Morris Iemma would win the contest. Scully was forced to resign as a minister in late 2006, and he retired from Smithfield in 2007.
Scully was succeeded in 2007 by Fairfield councillor Ninos Khoshaba. In 2011, he lost to Liberal candidate Andrew Rohan with a 20% swing.
Candidates
- Sujan Selventhiran (Greens)
- Andrew Rohan (Liberal)
- Sam Georgis (Christian Democratic Party)
- Hugh McDermott (Labor)
- Angelo Esposito (No Land Tax)
Assessment
Prospect is one of the most marginal Liberal seats in the state. This area was traditionally considered to be a safe Labor seat prior to the last election. Considering this history, and the pro-Labor effect of the redistribution, Labor should comfortably win Prospect.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Rohan | Liberal | 21,443 | 46.3 | +18.8 | 42.1 |
| Ninos Khoshaba | Labor | 17,323 | 37.4 | -14.9 | 40.6 |
| Astrid O’Neill | Greens | 3,818 | 8.3 | +0.1 | 7.1 |
| Manny Poularas | Christian Democrats | 3,680 | 8.0 | +2.5 | 7.3 |
| Others | 2.9 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Rohan | Liberal | 23,009 | 54.8 | +20.3 | 51.1 |
| Ninos Khoshaba | Labor | 18,948 | 45.2 | -20.3 | 48.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Prospect have been split into three parts: east, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a large 60.5% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the east. Labor won much slimmer majorities in the south (51.7%) and the north (52.6%), both of which are more populous than the east.
The Greens vote ranged from 4.8% in the north to 8.1% in the south. The Christian Demoratic Party vote ranged from 5.2% in the north to 8.9% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | GRN % | CDP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 48.3 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 15,068 | 33.4 |
| North | 47.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 12,327 | 27.3 |
| East | 60.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 8,375 | 18.5 |
| Other votes | 51.2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 9,402 | 20.8 |
For mine, Smithfield was the most surprising Labor loss at the last election. This will be a straightforward ALP gain.
^ I meant to say most surprising loss in Sydney. (The Hunter results were calamitous.)
My prediction: Labor gain, particularly with the redistribution making the seat more favourable to Labor.
Andy Rohan has worked very hard but this is a bridge too far. Easy gain.
Agree Andy Rohan has worked hard and is a nice guy, Labor have chosen a strong candidate and future Ministerial material in Hugh McDermott. I was surprised the Liberal’s won this last time and expect Labor to easily win it this time.