Pittwater – NSW 2015

LIB 34.5%

Incumbent MP
Rob Stokes, since 2007.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. The seat covers all of Pittwater council area and northern parts of Warringah council area. The seat covers Narrabeen, Warriewood, Elanora Heights, Mona Vale, Newport, Avalon and Scotland Island.

Map of Pittwater's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Pittwater’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Pittwater’s southern boundary with Davidson, but no change was made to the seat’s margin.

History
The seat of Pittwater has existed since the 1973 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party throughout that period. The Liberal Party has won the seat at every general election, although it was won by an independent at the 2005 by-election, and he held the seat until 2007.

The seat was first won in 1973 by Liberal Premier Robert Askin. He had first been elected to Parliament in 1950 as the member for the new seat of Collaroy. He became Leader of the Opposition in 1959, and ended 24 years of Labor rule in NSW when he became Premier at the 1965 election.

Collaroy was abolished in 1973, and Askin moved to the new seat of Pittwater, covering much of the same territory as his former seat. Askin retired as Premier and from Parliament in 1975.

The 1975 Pittwater by-election was won by Liberal candidate Bruce Webster. He held the seat until 1978.

Pittwater was won in 1978 by Liberal candidate Max Smith. He won re-election in 1981 and 1984, but after winning a third term in 1984 he resigned from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent. He resigned from Parliament in 1986.

The 1986 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Jim Longley. He served as a minister from 1992 to 1995, and retired in 1996.

Another by-election was held in 1996, and was won by John Brogden. He was promoted to the Coalition frontbench after the 1999 election. In March 2002, he challenged Opposition Leader Kerry Chikarovski and won a narrow party room vote. He led the Liberal Party to a landslide defeat in 2003, but later in the term appeared on track to win the next election.

Following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr in 2005, Brogden was exposed for offensive comments he made about the retiring Premier’s wife, and he was forced to resign as Liberal leader. Shortly after, he made an unsuccessful suicide attempt, and resigned as Member for Pittwater.

At the following by-election, the Liberals were hit hard by accusations that Brogden’s opponents in the party had pursued him and brought about the end of his political career. The seat was won by independent candidate Alex McTaggart, the Mayor of Pittwater.

At the 2007 election, McTaggart lost to Liberal candidate Alex Stokes, a former advisor to John Brogden. Stokes was re-elected in 2011.

Stokes served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the O’Farrell government. After Mike Baird was elected Premier, Stokes was promoted to serve as Minister for the Environment, Minister for Heritage, and Assistant Minister for Planning.

Candidates

Assessment
Pittwater is a safe Liberal seat, barring a strong independent campaign. Stokes should comfortably hold on in 2015.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Stokes Liberal 32,225 72.0 +21.7
Jonathan King Greens 7,536 16.8 +7.1
Pat Boydell Labor 4,023 9.0 +1.6
Mark McFarlane Christian Democrats 986 2.2 -1.1

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Rob Stokes Liberal 33,180 78.0
Jonathan King Greens 9,366 22.0

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Stokes Liberal 34,060 84.5 +4.7
Pat Boydell Labor 6,244 15.5 -4.7
Polling places in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election. Avalon in yellow, Mona Vale in green, Narrabeen in red, Newport in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election. Avalon in yellow, Mona Vale in green, Narrabeen in red, Newport in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Pittwater have been split into four areas based around key suburbs. From north to south these are: Avalon, Newport, Mona Vale, Narrabeen.

The Liberal Party won a large majority of the vote in all four areas. The Liberal primary vote ranged from 68% in Avalon to 75% in Mona Vale.

The Greens came second, with a vote ranging from 14% in Mona Vale to 23% in Avalon.

Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 7% in Newport to 10.5% in Narrabeen.

Voter group LIB % GRN % ALP % Total % of votes
Narrabeen 71.5 15.0 10.5 12,014 26.8
Mona Vale 74.9 13.8 9.1 7,817 17.5
Newport 73.3 17.7 7.4 6,977 15.6
Avalon 67.7 22.6 8.1 6,378 14.2
Other votes 72.0 17.1 8.9 11,584 25.9
Liberal primary votes in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election.
Liberal primary votes in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Pittwater at the 2011 NSW state election.

5 COMMENTS

  2. Wow Labor almost won this in the 1978 landslide with 48.6% of the 2PP.

    Longley’s 1986 by-election win was over surfing champion Nat Young.

    Higher Greens vote here than the seats further inland, maybe this is the most likely of the north shore seats where they may hold on to 2nd.

  3. Labor won Manly and Wakehurst at the 1978 & 1981 Wran-slides, so in that context it’s not surprising that Pittwater was also close in ’78. I wonder why it didn’t remain so in ’81. The answer may lie in incumbency. Like the two Labor MPs, it was also Liberal Max Smith’s first term.

  5. I predict Scotland Island booth to be lost by the Libs this time.

    In previous elections, like Dangar Island (similar demographic) used to be very strong for the Democrats.

    Lib retain though.

Comments are closed.