ALP 2.9%
Incumbent MP
Ryan Park, since 2011.
Geography
Illawarra. Keira covers suburbs in the City of Wollongong to the immediate north of the city centre, including the suburbs of Austinmer, Balgownie, Bellambi, Bulli, Coledale, Corrimal, Figtree, Keiraville, Russell Vale, Thirroul, West Wollongong and Woonona.
Redistribution
Keira shifted north, gaining Austinmer, Bulli, Coledale and Thirroul from Heathcote, and losing Towradgi to Wollongong. These changes cut the Labor margin from 3.8% to 2.9%.
History
The electorate of Keira has existed since 1988, and has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was won in 1988 by the ALP’s Col Markham. He served in Keira until 1999, when, facing a preselection challenge, he moved to the neighbouring seat of Wollongong, which he held for one term, losing preselection in 2003.
In 1999, Lord Mayor David Campbell, standing for the ALP, narrowly defeated independent councillor Dave Martin. Campbell was appointed to the ministry in 2003.
Campbell moved up the ministerial ranks until he took on the portfolio of Transport and Roads in 2008. In mid-2010 Campbell resigned from the ministry following a scandal involving a visit to a gay sex club in Kensington.
Campbell retired in 2011, and Keira was won by Labor candidate Ryan Park.
Candidates
- Joseph Carolan (Christian Democratic Party)
- Philip Clifford (Liberal)
- Jason Leto (No Land Tax)
- Ryan Park (Labor)
- Elena Martinez (Greens)
Assessment
Despite the slim margin, Keira is considered a safe Labor seat in normal circumstances, and Labor should significantly increase their margin.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ryan Park | Labor | 17,186 | 39.1 | -18.8 | 36.2 |
| John Dorahy | Liberal | 15,657 | 35.6 | +15.1 | 34.7 |
| George Takacs | Greens | 5,388 | 12.2 | -0.7 | 16.0 |
| Ray Jaeger | Independent | 3,684 | 8.4 | +8.4 | 6.7 |
| Steven Avasalu | Christian Democrats | 1,492 | 3.4 | -1.5 | 3.2 |
| Paola Harvey | Socialist Alliance | 585 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.0 |
| Others | 2.1 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ryan Park | Labor | 20,530 | 53.8 | -18.2 | 52.9 |
| John Dorahy | Liberal | 17,604 | 46.2 | +18.2 | 47.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Keira have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre and north, both around 56%. In the south, the Liberal Party won 52.4% of the two-party vote.
The Greens vote ranged from 11% in the centre to 22% in the north.
Independent Ray Jaeger came third, with a vote ranging from 5% in the north to 8.6% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | GRN % | IND % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 56.1 | 21.9 | 5.0 | 14,908 | 30.6 |
| Central | 55.9 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 13,106 | 26.9 |
| South | 47.6 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 9,520 | 19.6 |
| Other votes | 50.6 | 15.6 | 6.1 | 11,124 | 22.9 |
My prediction: Labor hold.
Crikey, North Woolongong has some very Green booths.
Only reason the Coalition got close here was the high profile of John Dorahy. This should swing right back.
Don’t be surprised if this seat starts to develop into a Blue-Mountains or Balmain-style seat.
Labor will win irrespective of who forms government in NSW. Ryan Park (ALP) is an enthusiastic and hard working local member who engages the electorate and acts in an extremely diligent manner.
The Liberal hierarchy have done Mr Clifford no favours with their disruptive train timetable and their attitude to the plight of the large number of rail commuters living between Fairy Meadow & Bulli.
The Greens have much support up in the trendy & afforested far northern suburbs, but have difficulty adequately articulating the mechanics and costings of their proposed solutions to the broader bread & butter issues that primarily concern most people and families in the electorate.
Ryan Park & Gareth Ward (Lib : Kiama) seem to be the 2 standout local representatives insofar as providing high grade representation and getting things done in their electorates.