LIB 26.5%
Incumbent MP
Matt Kean, since 2011.
Geography
Northern Sydney. Hornsby lies entirely within Hornsby shire, covering Hornsby, Asquith, Berowra, Cowan, Mt Colah, Mt Ku-ring-gai, Westleigh and parts of Dural, Galston, Normanhurst, Thornleigh, Waitara and Pennant Hills.
Redistribution
Hornsby lost Cherrybrook to Epping, in exchange for Westleigh, Thornleigh and Pennant Hills. In the north, Hornsby also gained Arcadia from Hawkesbury. These changes slightly reduced the Liberal margin from 27.1% to 26.5%.
History
Hornsby first existed as an electoral district from 1927 to 1991. It was restored in 1999. It has always been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.
The first Member for Hornsby, James Shand, represented the seat for the Nationalist Party and then the United Australia Party from 1927 to 1941. He served as a minister from 1935 to 1938, and became an independent shortly before the 1941 election.
In 1941 Shand shifted the neighbouring seat of Ryde, holding it until his death in 1944.
In 1941, Hornsby was won by independent UAP candidate Sydney Storey, defeating the party’s official candidate. Storey joined the newly-formed Liberal Party in 1945, and held the seat until 1962, when he lost Liberal preselection and unsuccessfully ran as an independent.
John Maddison won Hornsby as a Liberal candidate in 1962. He became a minister in 1965, serving in the role until the government lost power in 1976. In 1973, a redistribution created the new seat of Ku-ring-gai, and Maddison moved to the seat. He held it until his retirement in 1980.
Neil Pickard won Hornsby in 1973. He became Minister for Education in early 1976, serving for a few months before the Coalition government lost power. He became a minister in the first term of the Greiner government from 1988 to 1991. In 1991, the seat of Hornsby was abolished at the 1991 redistribution, and Pickard retired.
Much of the former seat of Hornsby was absorbed by Ku-ring-gai, which moved north. Parts were also absorbed by Northcott. In 1991, Ku-ring-gai was held by Premier Nick Greiner, and Northcott was held by state minister Bruce Baird. Greiner retired in 1992, and the Ku-ring-gai by-election was won by Stephen O’Doherty.
Baird became Liberal Party deputy leader in 1992, serving in the role until 1994. He served as a minister until his retirement at the 1995 election. Northcott was won in 1995 by Liberal Party state director Barry O’Farrell.
The redistribution prior to the 1999 state election substantially redraw boundaries in northern Sydney. The seats of Northcott, Gordon, Eastwood, Ermington and Gladesville were all abolished, with the seats of Hornsby, Parramatta, Epping and Ryde created, and Ku-ring-gai moved substantially to the south.
O’Farrell took on the seat of Ku-ring-gai, while O’Doherty moved to the seat of Hornsby. O’Doherty retired in 2002.
The 2002 Hornsby by-election was won by Liberal candidate Judy Hopwood. She won re-election in 2003 and 2007, surviving a challenge to her preselection in 2007.
Hopwood retired in 2011, and the preselection was contested by Matt Kean and Nick Berman, mayor of Hornsby. After losing preselection to Kean, Berman ran for Hornsby as an independent, but Kean retained the seat for the Liberal Party.
Candidates
- Steve Ackerman (Labor)
- Matt Kean (Liberal)
- John Storey (Greens)
- Mary Di Cosmo (No Land Tax)
- Mick Gallagher (Independent)
- Leighton Thew (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Hornsby is a safe Liberal seat, particularly after surviving the independent threat from Nick Berman in 2011.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Matt Kean | Liberal | 23,317 | 49.4 | -3.5 | 50.6 |
| Nick Berman | Independent | 10,418 | 22.1 | +22.1 | 18.3 |
| Toni Wright-Turner | Greens | 5,242 | 11.1 | +0.6 | 12.4 |
| Nicholas Car | Labor | 4,846 | 10.3 | -12.6 | 11.0 |
| Mick Gallagher | Independent | 1,876 | 4.0 | +0.9 | 3.6 |
| Leighton Thew | Christian Democrats | 1,495 | 3.2 | -1.5 | 3.4 |
| Others | 0.6 |
2011 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Redist |
| Matt Kean | Liberal | 25,158 | 62.1 | |
| Nick Berman | Independent | 15,361 | 37.9 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Matt Kean | Liberal | 29,618 | 77.1 | +10.6 | 76.5 |
| Nicholas Car | Labor | 8,797 | 22.9 | -10.6 | 23.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hornsby have been split into four parts. The main urban parts of the seat have been split into “Hornsby Central” and “Hornsby North”. Booths further north have been grouped as “Berowra” while those further west were grouped as “West”.
On a two-party-preferred basis (Liberal vs Labor), the Liberal vote ranged from 74.5% in Berowra to 86.9% in the west.
The Liberal Party’s primary vote ranged from 44.9% in Hornsby North to 66.9% in the west.
Independent Nick Berman’s vote ranged from 15.3% in the west to 24.5% in Hornsby North.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8% in the west to 13.7% in Hornsby Central. The Labor vote ranged from 5.7% in the west to 12.8% in Hornsby Central.
| Voter group | LIB % | IND % | GRN % | ALP % | Total | % of votes |
| Hornsby Central | 49.8 | 16.5 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 15,519 | 32.1 |
| Hornsby North | 44.9 | 24.5 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 10,183 | 21.1 |
| Berowra | 45.0 | 21.9 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 5,824 | 12.1 |
| West | 66.9 | 15.3 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 4,127 | 8.5 |
| Other votes | 53.3 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 12,664 | 26.2 |
It is weird that Hornsby assumed the name Ku-ring-gai in the 1991-1999 period. Perhaps the redistribution committee at the time just couldn’t bring themselves to abolish the premier’s seat.
David; they essentially merged Hornsby into Ku-ring-gai. Reasoning ??? The undistinguished Neil Pickard retired as he would’ve been up against the Premier (Greiner) in Ku-ring-gai; a minister (Baird) in Northcott and wasn’t interested in Hawkesbury. At the next redistribution (before 1999 election); they abolished Gordon & Northcott and re-established Hornsby with Ku-ring-gai heading south and Hornsby taking the northern end of Northcott (Normanhurst, Thornleigh, Westleigh).
Although re-established with a 13% Lib margin, Hornsby was very closely contested in 99 with O’Doherty copping an 11% swing against him. Labour, curiously, did NOT contest the 2002 by-election however the 2003 election was still close (3%). Although always in conservative hands, Hornsby has been a seat that has gone through spells where it can go very marginal for a couple of elections every 20 years or so (0.85% 550 votes in 78 & 1.5% in 81).
However the 2007 redistribution has probably ruled out any chance for Lab in the foreseeable future. The central Hornsby booths can be very swingy and Lab often wins well in good years, North of Hornsby, most booths tend Lib although Asquith is a swing booth as are the townships of Cowan & Brooklyn (Danger Island is a GRN fortress !). The move across Galston Gorge into the semi rural areas of Hornsby Shire and into Cherrybrook are the killers.
My prediction: Easy Liberal hold, particularly without Nick Berman in the race.
I’ve met Matt Kean, and he is an exceptional MP. He’s somebody to watch in the next four years. Hopefully he’ll make it to Cabinet.
He’s energetic in getting himself in front of a camera but self advertisement, I’m not sure there’s anything more. He may get some lift out of the continued redevelopment of Hornsby Hospital but that was more the hard work of his predecessor Hopwood who WAS, actually, a major step up from likes of Pickard & O’Doherty and was already in progress under the previous Lab government. On controversial local issues like 25 story redevelopment of Hornsby “old side”; he’s nowhere.
Should be a safe retain for the Libs but the margin is grossly inflated; probably double the true size.