Granville – NSW 2015

LIB 3.8%

Incumbent MP
Tony Issa, since 2011.

Geography
Western Sydney. Granville covers parts of the City of Parramatta and the City of Holroyd. Suburbs include Guildford, Granville, Greystanes, Merrylands and South Wentworthville.

Map of Granville's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Granville’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Granville lost Harris Park to Parramatta and South Granville to Auburn, and gained parts of Wentworthville from Parramatta and parts of West Guildford from Fairfield. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 2.7% to 3.8%.

History
The seat of Granville was first created in 1894, when single-member electorates were introduced. The seat has existed ever since, except for three elections in the 1920s when Granville became part of the multi-member district of Parramatta. The ALP has held the seat continuously since 1938.

The seat was won in 1938 by Bill Lamb. Lamb participated in the second Lang Labor breakaway party from 1940 to 1941, but was loyal to the ALP after 1941. He served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1947 to 1959. In 1962 he lost Labor preselection and retired.

Lamb was defeated for preselection by Parramatta mayor Pat Laherty. He held the seat until his retirement in 1984.

Laherty was succeeded in 1984 by Laurie Ferguson. He held Granville until 1990, when he resigned to run for the federal seat of Reid. He held Reid until 2010, when he moved to the seat of Werriwa after a redistribution. He served as a frontbencher in the Labor opposition prior to 2007, then as a parliamentary secretary upon the election of the federal Labor government. He returned to the backbench after the 2010 election.

The 1990 Granville by-election was won by the ALP’s Kim Yeadon. He served as a minister in the Labor government from 1995 to 2003, and retired in 2007.

Granville was won in 2007 by Parramatta mayor David Borger, who served as a minister in the Labor government from 2008 to 2011.

In 2011, Borger was defeated by Liberal candidate Tony Issa.

Candidates

Assessment
Granville is a very marginal seat, but should be won by Labor if there is a swing as expected.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tony Issa Liberal 18,510 41.3 +13.1 42.6
David Borger Labor 17,000 38.0 -10.2 36.9
Paul Garrard Independent 4,488 10.0 +0.5 7.6
Alex Sharah Christian Democrats 2,472 5.5 +1.0 5.4
Richard Kennedy Greens 2,325 5.2 +1.2 5.8
Others 1.7

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tony Issa Liberal 21,276 52.7 +13.8 53.8
David Borger Labor 19,093 47.3 -13.8 46.2
Polling places in Granville at the 2011 NSW state election. North-east in green, South-east in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Granville at the 2011 NSW state election. North-east in green, South-east in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Granville have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west.

The Liberal Party won the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.9% in the north-east to 55.9% in the west.

Voter group LIB 2PP % IND % Total votes % of votes
South-East 53.2 7.3 12,217 29.0
West 55.9 7.9 12,198 28.9
North-East 50.9 7.4 8,391 19.9
Other votes 54.3 7.6 9,391 22.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Granville at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Granville at the 2011 NSW state election.

8 COMMENTS

  2. I wouldn’t count this seat out. Word on the ground is that while people are umming and arring about the Coalition, the big wild-card is the local Maronite community backing Tony Issa. That could just be enough for him to get over the line. You also have to consider the personal vote for David Borger from the last election.

  3. I’ve noticed a bunch of signs for Issa in Granville. However, I’ve noticed visual differences with the signs compared to other seats which tells me that perhaps the Liberals are not taking this as seriously as other seats they’re trying to defend.

    Julia Finn is probably not the greatest candidate for Granville, but compared to David Borger, at least, she did not have a secret hankering to be the member for Parramatta.

    The Christian Democratic Party have a few signs out for their candidate as well.

  5. Not so sure if Labor can win this one. Tony Issa is well liked and known in the Electrate. If Labor is to make any impression in this Election, then that must win Granville, as well as Seats such as Prospect. At this stage, I have marked Granville as a 50-50 seat.

  6. If Labor can’t win this back they’ll probably be out of government for a generation. Yes Issa is a good local MP, but it’s still fundamentally a generally safe Labor seat.

  8. The extraordinary circumstances of the last election, whereby the % shift against Labor and the well known and supported Independent candidate giving his preferences to Issa, are no longer valid.
    Historical Labor seat, albeit boundary shift that favours Issa, will still see a return to Labor, Julie Finn is well known in Local Government and a former Lord Mayor of Parramatta as was Issa.

Comments are closed.