Fairfield – NSW 2015

ALP 2.2%

Incumbent MP
Guy Zangari, since 2011.

Geography
Western Sydney. Most of the seat lies in the City of Fairfield, as well as parts of Bankstown and Holroyd. It covers the suburbs of Canley Heights, Canley Vale, Fairfield, Wakeley, Yennora and parts of Guildford.

Map of Fairfield's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Fairfield’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Fairfield took in Canley Heights, Canley Vale and Wakeley from Cabramatta, and lost Villawood and Chester Hill to Bankstown. These changes increased the margin from 1.7% to 2.2%.

History
The electoral district of Fairfield has existed since the 1953 election. It has always been won by the Labor Party.

Fairfield was won in 1953 by the ALP’s Clarrie Earl. In 1962 he moved to the new seat of Bass Hill, which he held until his retirement in 1973.

Fairfield was won in 1962 by Jack Ferguson. He had won the seat of Merrylands in 1959 before switching seats. In 1968, he returned to Merrylands. He served as Deputy Premier from 1976 to 1984, when he retired from politics. His sons Martin and Laurie Ferguson are now both federal members of Parliament.

Eric Bedford won Fairfield in 1968. He held it until 1981, and then held Cabramatta from 1981 until his retirement in 1985. He served as a minister from 1976 to 1985.

Bedford was succeeded in Fairfield by former Fairfield mayor Janice Crosio in 1981. She served as a minister in the Labor government from 1984 to 1988. At the 1988 election she moved to the new seat of Smithfield. She resigned from Smithfield in 1990 to be elected to the federal seat of Prospect. She held that seat until 2004, serving as a parliamentary secretary in the final term of the Keating government.

Fairfield was won in 1988 by Geoff Irwin. He had previously won Merrylands in 1984, and moved to Fairfield when his first seat was abolished. He retired at the 1995 election.

Joe Tripodi won Fairfield in 1995. He became a minister in the Labor government in 2005. He rose through the ministerial ranks while developing a reputation as a backroom powerbroker. He became Finance Minister under Premier Nathan Rees, but was sacked in November 2009. This partly triggered Rees’ removal as Labor leader and Premier in late 2009.

Joe Tripodi retired in 2011, and Fairfield was won by Guy Zangari.

Candidates

Assessment
While the ALP came close to losing Fairfield in 2011, the seat is normally considered to be safe for Labor and should return to that status in 2015.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Guy Zangari Labor 17,858 40.7 -17.6 42.9
Charbel Saliba Liberal 16,657 37.9 +15.3 38.9
Annie Nielsen Greens 2,890 6.6 +0.4 6.8
Eileen Nasr Christian Democrats 2,332 5.3 0.0 5.2
David Ball Independent 1,489 3.4 +3.4 2.3
Ahmad Al-Yasiry Independent 1,281 2.9 +2.9 1.7
Linda Harris Independent 1,074 2.4 +2.4 1.7
Daicy Olaya Socialist Alliance 329 0.7 +0.7 0.6

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Guy Zangari Labor 19,189 51.7 -18.7 52.2
Charbel Saliba Liberal 17,930 48.3 +18.7 47.8
Polling places in Fairfield at the 2011 NSW state election.
Polling places in Fairfield at the 2011 NSW state election.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Fairfield have been split into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas: 52.5% in the east and 55.5% in the south-west. The Liberal Party won a slim 50.8% majority in the north-west.

Voter group ALP 2PP % GRN % CDP % Total votes % of votes
East 52.5 6.2 5.5 12,089 27.7
South-West 55.5 7.3 4.3 11,260 25.8
North-West 49.2 5.9 7.2 7,499 17.2
Other votes 50.8 7.3 4.5 12,835 29.4
Two-party-preferred votes in Fairfield at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fairfield at the 2011 NSW state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. I think Zangari is well regarded within the Labor Party, but locally, he really has not made a huge impression at all. The question still remains: does he live in the electorate? He didn’t in 2011, and was a small factor in the large swing against him. There are a few signs for him in the electorate, and certainly Labor appear confident of winning this seat.

    Charbel Saliba has signs everywhere throughout the electorate which makes me wonder what Liberal internal polling is regarding this seat. The amount of signs that he has is almost excessive.

    The Christian Democratic Party (as I referenced in Cabramatta, the Fairfield/Liverpool area is their strongest) are running a good campaign here with Edward Royal. I’ve noticed quite a few signs for him around the electorate.

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