Davidson – NSW 2015

LIB 36.2%

Incumbent MP
Jonathan O’Dea, since 2007.

Geography
Northern Sydney. Davidson covers parts of Ku-ring-gai, Warringah and Willoughby local government areas, including the suburbs of Roseville, Lindfield, Killara, Castle Cove, Davidson and Belrose, and parts of St Ives.

Map of Davidson's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Davidson’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Davidson lost parts of St Ives to Ku-ring-gai, and gained West Lindfield from Ku-ring-gai and Castle Cove from Willoughby. These changes reduced the Liberal margin slightly from 36.5% to 36.2%.

History
The district of Davidson has existed since 1971, and it has always been won by the Liberal Party.

Davidson was first won in 1971 by Liberal MP Dick Healey. He had been Member for Wakehurst since 1962. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1973 to 1976. He held his seat until 1981, when he lost Liberal preselection to Terry Metherell.

Terry Metherell quickly rose to the Coalition frontbench in Opposition, and became Minister for Education when Greiner gained power in 1988. His educational reforms were unpopular, and he was forced to resign from the ministry after accusations of tax avoidance.

The Coalition lost its majority at the 1991 election, and Metherell’s prospects of returning to the ministry were squashed. He resigned from the Liberal Party in late 1991.

When the Liberal Party lost The Entrance by-election, they needed Metherell’s vote to maintain power.

In 1992, Metherell was appointed to a newly-created position with the Environment Protection Agency, vacating his seat. The following by-election was won by Liberal candidate Andrew Humpherson.

Following the by-election, the Legislative Assembly referred the issue to the newly-created Independent Commission Against Corruption, which found that the Premier, Nick Greiner, and his Minister for the Environment had both acted corruptly, which led to their resignations.

Humpherson held Davidson comfortably throughout the 1990s, and in 2000 was appointed to the opposition frontbench.

In the lead-up to the 2007 election, Humpherson was challenged for preselection by Jonathan O’Dea, who won a close-run preselection battle, and went on to win the 2007 election. He was re-elected in 2011.

Candidates

Assessment
Davidson is a very safe Liberal seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jonathan O’Dea Liberal 33,112 74.2 +13.8 73.7
John Davis Greens 5,572 12.5 -1.0 12.8
Mathew Gilliland Labor 3,626 8.1 -8.7 8.4
Helen Owen Independent 1,380 3.1 +3.1 2.6
Peter Chapman Christian Democrats 924 2.1 -2.5 2.1
Others 0.3

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Redist
Jonathan O’Dea Liberal 34,294 83.4 83.0
John Davis Greens 6,842 16.6 17.0

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jonathan O’Dea Liberal 34,839 86.5 +11.8 86.2
Mathew Gilliland Labor 5,456 13.5 -11.8 13.8
Polling places in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election. East in blue, South in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election. East in blue, South in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Davidson have been split into three parts. Polling places in the Warringah council area have been grouped as “east”, while those in Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby have been split into “south” and “west”.

The Liberal Party won a large majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 71% in the east to 77% in the west.

The Greens came second in all three areas, ranging from 11.6% in the west to 14.3% in the south.

Labor came third in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 7.1% in the west to 10.7% in the east.

Voter group LIB % GRN % ALP % Total % of votes
South 73.9 14.3 7.7 13,550 28.5
West 76.9 11.6 7.1 12,205 25.6
East 70.6 12.0 10.7 10,532 22.1
Other votes 73.2 13.1 8.4 11,321 23.8
Liberal primary votes in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election.
Liberal primary votes in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election.
Greens primary votes in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Davidson at the 2011 NSW state election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. I’ve never understood the logic of this seat. It’s half Warringah shire, half Ku-ring-gai shire, separated by a national park. The two halves are only connected by Mona Vale Rd and Warringah Rd, which largely serve as the northern and southern boundaries respectively.

    It would surely make more sense to use the national park/river as a boundary – as it has long been at federal level – and instead have a district straddling the spit bridge.

  2. The logic of the seat is a result of the fact that the coast makes a great boundary for the three coastal seats, but then you have a piece of Warringah Shire (Belrose and Davidson) that is left over. Looking at the 2011 results the support for all three parties is evenly spread across the electorate so even though the boundaries are odd I think they are fair.

  3. David, I will have you know that for years the federal seat of Bradfield before 1993 straddled both sides of Middle Harbour/Davidson National Park. However I agree that it is strange that with only one road link they are still lumped together.

  4. There’s not enough electors to fit 4 seats on the Northern Beaches, so one of them has to cross either here or at the Spit. But Middle Harbour is even wider at the Spit, and there’s only a single crossing instead of two.

    Plus crossing the Spit, you’d probably end up with a long skinny District that went from Manly to Mosman hugging the coast.

Comments are closed.