Clarence – NSW 2015

NAT 31.9%

Incumbent MP
Chris Gulaptis, since 2011.

Geography
North coast of NSW. The seat covers all of Clarence Valley and Richmond Valley local government areas. The main centres of the town are Grafton, Yamba, Maclean and Casino.

Map of Clarence's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Clarence’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Clarence’s boundaries were aligned with local government boundaries, losing those small parts of the Coffs Harbour and Lismore councils it previously covered and taking in the remaining parts of Richmond Valley council north of Casino. These changes increased the Nationals margin from 31.4% to 31.9%.

History
The district of Clarence has existed since 1859, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s. The seat has been dominated by the Country/National Party since 1927. The seat has been won by the Labor Party at the 1981 and 1999 elections and at the 1996 by-election, the only occasions when another party won the seat.

The seat was won in 1938 by Cecil Wingfield of the Country Party. He defeated the sitting Country Party MP, Alfred Henry. At the time, the Country Party allowed multiple candidates to contest the same seat. He held the seat until his death in 1955.

The 1955 by-election was won by former Grafton mayor Bill Weiley, also of the Country Party. He held the seat until he retired at the 1971 election.

At the 1971 election, the Country Party’s Matt Singleton won Clarence. In 1981, the redistribution created the new seat of Coffs Harbour and made Clarence a notional Labor seat. Singleton shifted to the new seat of Coffs Harbour, which he held until his retirement in 1990. He served as a minister in the Greiner government from 1988 to 1989.

The 1981 redistribution also abolished the Labor seat of Casino, which had existed for ten years. It had been won by the first time in 1971 by the ALP’s Don Day. Day became a minister when the ALP won power in 1976, and in 1981 moved to the seat of Clarence. He retired at the 1984 election.

Clarence was won back in 1984 by the National Party’s Ian Causley. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1995. In 1996, he resigned from Clarence to contest the federal Labor seat of Page. He held that federal seat until his retirement in 2007.

In 1996, Causley defeated the sitting Labor Member for Page, Harry Woods. Woods, newly out of work, contested Causley’s vacated seat of Clarence and the ensuing by-election, and won the seat. He became a minister in the Labor government in 1997, and served in that role until his retirement in 2003.

Clarence was won in 2003 by the National Party’s Steve Cansdell, and he was re-elected in 2007 and 2011.

Less than six months after winning a third term, Cansdell resigned in September 2011 after making a false declaration in relation to a traffic offence. The subsequent by-election, the first of seven in the parliamentary term, saw Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis easily re-elected.

Candidates

Assessment
Clarence is a safe Nationals seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steve Cansdell Nationals 28,717 62.8 +9.9 63.6
Richie Williamson Independent 7,789 17.0 +17.0 16.6
Colin Clague Labor 4,683 10.2 -19.8 10.0
Janet Cavanaugh Greens 3,147 6.9 -0.2 6.7
Bethany Camac Christian Democrats 822 1.8 +1.8 1.8
Kristen Bromell Family First 598 1.3 +1.3 1.2
Others 0.1

2011 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Steve Cansdell Nationals 30,120 73.3
Richie Williamson Independent 10,963 26.7

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steve Cansdell Nationals 31,625 81.4 +19.8 81.9
Colin Clague Labor 7,237 18.6 -19.8 18.1

2011 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Gulaptis National 24,555 56.7 -6.1
Peter Ellem Labor 12,098 28.0 +17.8
Janet Cavanaugh Greens 3,099 7.2 +0.3
Clinton Mead Outdoor Recreation 1,066 2.5 +2.5
Wade Walker Independent 979 2.3 +2.3
Bethany Camac Christian Democrats 832 1.9 +0.1
Stewart Scott-Irving Independent 372 0.9 +0.9
David Robinson Democrats 272 0.6 +0.6

2011 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chris Gulaptis National 25,512 65.1 -16.3
Peter Ellem Labor 13,657 34.9 +16.3
Polling places in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election. Casino in yellow, Clarence River in orange, Grafton in green, North in blue, South in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election. Casino in yellow, Clarence River in orange, Grafton in green, North in blue, South in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Clarence have been divided into five areas. Those booths in the two main towns of Grafton and Casino have been grouped together. Those booths to the north-east of Grafton along the Clarence river, including those in Maclean and Yamba, have been grouped as “Clarence River”.

The remaining booths have been split into “north” and “south”. At the by-election, there were no rural booths north of Casino, but the redistribution added a number of booths in this area to the “north” grouping.

At the general election, the Nationals won a majority of the primary vote in all five areas, ranging from 55% in the south to 68% in Casino. Independent Richie Williamson came second, with a vote strongest in Grafton and the south. His vote ranged from 6% in the north to 25% in Grafton. Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 8% in Grafton to 14% in Casino.

At the by-election, the Nationals primary vote ranged from 49% in the south to 58% in the Clarence River area. Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 24% in the north to 32% in Grafton.

2011 election breakdown

Voter group NAT % IND % ALP % Total % of votes
Grafton 60.0 25.4 7.7 11,761 25.5
Clarence River 65.1 15.5 9.7 10,342 22.4
Casino 68.4 7.4 13.7 5,697 12.3
North 67.0 5.9 12.5 4,568 9.9
South 54.6 21.4 8.5 2,001 4.3
Other votes 63.7 16.5 10.0 11,806 25.6

2011 by-election breakdown

Voter group NAT % ALP % GRN % Total % of votes
Grafton 52.7 31.6 6.6 11,114 25.7
Clarence River 58.4 29.1 6.1 9,750 22.5
Casino 57.9 26.5 5.8 5,391 12.5
North 56.7 24.1 11.9 3,626 8.4
South 49.1 27.1 12.6 2,853 6.6
Other votes 61.0 25.3 6.3 10,539 24.4
Nationals primary votes in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richie Williamson in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richie Williamson in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Clarence at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Grafton at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Grafton at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richie Williamson in Grafton at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richie Williamson in Grafton at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Grafton at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Grafton at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Casino at the 2011 NSW state election.
Nationals primary votes in Casino at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richie Williamson in Casino at the 2011 NSW state election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richie Williamson in Casino at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Casino at the 2011 NSW state election.
Labor primary votes in Casino at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2011 Clarence by-election.
Two-party-preferred votes at the 2011 Clarence by-election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Grafton at the 2011 Clarence by-election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Grafton at the 2011 Clarence by-election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Casino at the 2011 Clarence by-election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Casino at the 2011 Clarence by-election.

18 COMMENTS

  1. The Bentley anti-CSG blockade technically took place just inside the northern boundary of this seat, but that will have a far more potent impact in Lismore than here. Labor even initially left the Clarence Valley out of their policy to ban the CSG industry in the Northern Rivers and they seem to have chosen a rather low profile and inexperienced candidate. Perhaps they were expecting a serious campaign from an independent here, which would’ve made sense, but it doesn’t look as though either of the two indies in the field so far are major contenders for the seat.

    Significant swing to Labor likely, helped by overflow from the more intense campaigns in the seats to the north, but the Labor candidate being from Casino will probably keep the swing down in Grafton. Probably somewhere around 5% more than the by-election result – ie 60-40 2PP would be my guess, maybe 55-45 at best

  2. Are state Labor really incompetent on the North Coast or something? They only seem to do well in high water mark elections up there, despite federally the area being around 50/50.

  3. Disagree Nick the Independent Bryan Robins, is going to give the Nationals and Labor a run and could be likely to pick up the seat. Robins is strong no BS and totally against CSG only he and the Greens candidate attended the Declaration Day in Coraki on Sunday. He’s firm on his representation of community and has a depth of background, was SES for 20 years. The minute people meet, hear or read him they know he’ll listen to community and represent them. His position statements are at http://bryanrobins.com/

  4. I think the strength of the anti CSG sentiment is being way under estimated here in Clarence as well as the Northern Rivers and elsewhere.

    The petroleum exploration licences held by Metgasco cover Casino PEL 16 and PEL 13.
    PEL 426 covers all of Grafton.

    There were blockades at Bentley (yes just inside the North boundary), Glenugie (South of Grafton) as well as Doubtful creek (Lismore) as well as many other actions.

    There is a large grass roots campaign to Number every square and put the Nationals last.
    For many Labor is not an option, this may see a big swing to Janet Cavanaugh (Green) and Bryan Robins (Independant) who are both performing well.

    With the findings of ICAC to date and very poor performance from ‘both’ sides of NSW politics I would be very hesitant to consider any seat safe.

  5. Well I’m certainly not underestimating the impact of CSG in Lismore, and I’ve heard about private polling which backs that up, but I just don’t see it having as much of an impact in Clarence. The Greens vote actually went down in Casino in the by-election diespite the CSG focus and the extra resources the Greens put into the area, including opening a campaign office. I definitely think the issue has more potency now than then, but big enough to get up a candidate who I haven’t seen much of in the media? I won’t be totally surprised if this ends up being very close but I’d want to see some polling before I’m convinced the Nats will lose this one.

  6. Queensland polls showed the LNP to return, who’d think Labor would go from 8 seats to government? And media attention was all LNP favoured. It’s going to be an interesting election that’s for sure.

  7. Have you met or heard the Country Labor candidate, Trent Gilbert go head to head with Chris Gulaptis? Very impressive for a young candidate. Watch out for Gilbert, he will give Gulaptis a run for his money and is a certain future sitting member.

  8. If anti CSG sentiment were determining who you voted for, where would you go? All the parties have declared war on the natural gas industry, and just as they once did on law and order, are now outbidding each other on who can be the most hard-line.

    That is the enduring power of Allan Jones … But those who see “irony” in dread-locked vegans standing side by side with right-wing broadcasters are missing the point. This anti-CSG alliance, which now includes the Nats as well as the Greens and Labor, is being dictated by the interests of the State’s wealthiest rural pastoralists.

    And there has been a big change in the way the Nats are approaching this now that Stoner has gone, replaced by Dubbo’s Troy Grant

    I don’t know enough about the NSW North Coast to predict what it will do the three seats Labor now has now declared are in its sights. A safe bet is that Jones will help Labor’s and the Green’s numbers a bit, but the outcome won’t change – certainly not in Clarence.

  9. The Coalition has announced this morning they are buying back a licence that they themselves renewed in this term of government – when they have just renewed licenses across Lismore & Kyogle LGAs!! The coalition’s hypocrisy is breathtaking.

  10. Coco Bunter I read with interest your comment and didn’t understand at all where you were coming from until I read this “I don’t know enough about the NSW North Coast to predict what it will do the three seats…”

    Obviously you don’t know about the North Coast, when you say “…dread-locked vegans standing side by side with right-wing broadcasters…” over 80% of the community in the Northern Rivers have declared their roads, villages, towns Gasfield Free. I assure you 80% of the North Coast aren’t dread-locked vegans, but they are a diverse community that have come together against this destructive unsafe industry and they say no, in a big loud voice and are tired of not being listened to on this and a number of other issues.

    zaccarruthers Yes hypocrisy. The announcement of the buy back of two licences is a joke, they bought the licences for $1,000 did nothing and now they approached the government who bought them back for approx $200,000 and they still have one licence over the Clarence. Not a bad investment on the part of Clarence Morton Resources.

    I believe Trent Gilbert will make a good member given a few years and experiences of life behind him. That in his profile it’s quoted about being the School Captain says a bit. He needs to finish his degree, get a job in the big smoke, travel and then he’ll make a good politician I think. He seemed quite shocked after watching Frackman, on Friday night. I think was still believing the Gas Company propaganda and then he sees what is actually happening not that far away.

  11. Thanks Suzy, G, believe me, I was not intending to offend anyone with cheap shots about vegans or unfair stereotypes about people who listen to Allan Jones. I just meant the same point as you have made – the anti natural gas (yes now we call it “coal seam gas” but it was once “natural”) issue now galvanises the entire community and all the political parties – the Greens, Labor, and the Coalition. Where would an anti-Gas voter then park his/her vote? Has it been neutralised (just thinking out loud…)

    But sorry if I confused you.

  12. Considering “coalition” tends to mean Nat and not Lib in regional NSW, it’d be a bit dicey voting for the Nats if they then have to bend over and accept whatever the Libs from Sydney have decided, regardless of their (or their voters’) own opinions. They’re not as bolshie as their cousins in WA and SA can be, which is probably a downside on issues like this.

  13. Thanks Coco Bunter, in many rural areas mainstream everyday people are getting very tired of the name calling, hence we get a bit thin skinned. What we know as ‘Natural Gas’ is an entirely different method of collection to ‘Coal Seam and Unconventional Gas’. Yes many promises by all candidates and parties but it’s up the community to see who they believe will carry their voice, certainly the Nationals haven’t represented rural people for many many years and this is only one issue that people are now sick of not being represented by their National Members over. So many promises by the Nationals but we know after the election the Liberals will say no and rural people get nothing, change is in the air in the country.

  14. According to ABC site; 21.5% 2PP new margin 10.4%. Primaries: NAT 51.1% (-12.4) ALP 28% (+18) GRN 9% (+2.2).

    Tweed saw 18.6% 2PP new margin 3.1%. Primaries NAT 47% (-15.1) ALP 36% (+14.6) GRN 13.3% (-0.8).

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