Blacktown – NSW 2015

ALP 4.1%

Incumbent MP
John Robertson, since 2011. Previously Member of the Legislative Council 2008-2011.

Geography
Western Sydney. The seat covers central parts of the City of Blacktown, including the suburbs of Blacktown, Doonside, Kings Park, Marayong, Woodcroft and parts of Lalor Park and Seven Hills.

Map of Blacktown's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Blacktown’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Blacktown gained parts of Lalor Park and the remainder of Kings Park from Toongabbie and lost southern parts of Blacktown to Prospect. These changes increased the Labor margin from 3.7% to 4.1%.

History
The electoral district of Blacktown has existed continuously since 1941. With the exception of the 1959 election, it has always been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1941 by the ALP’s Frank Hill, who held it until 1945. The by-election was won by John Freeman, who held the seat until 1959. In 1959 Blacktown was redistributed into a marginal seat, and Freeman retired after failing to win preselection for the new seat of Merrylands.

The Liberal Party’s Alfred Dennis won Blacktown in 1959, but the next redistribution in 1962 largely reversed the changes, making Blacktown stronger for the ALP. Dennis lost preselection for the new safe Liberal seat of The Hills, and ran for the seat unsuccessfully as an independent.

Jim Southee won Blacktown for the ALP in 1962. He held the seat until 1971, when he moved to the new seat of Mount Druitt, which he held until his retirement in 1973.

Gordon Barnier won Blacktown in 1971. At the 1981 election, he lost preselection to John Aquilina.

Aquilina became a minister for the final two years of the Labor state government from 1986 to 1988. In 1991 he moved to Riverstone, which he held until 2011. He served as a minister from 1995 to 2003 and as Speaker from 2003 to 2007.

In 1991, the seat of Wentworthville was abolished, and Pam Allan, who had won Wentworthville in 1988, moved to Blacktown. She served as a minister in the first term of the Carr government, and held Blacktown until 1999. In 1999 she returned to a recreated Wentworthville, holding it until 2007.

Blacktown was won in 1999 by Paul Gibson, a former rugby league player and Member for Londonderry since 1988. Gibson was appointed a minister following the 2007 state election, but never took office, as allegations of an assault sixteen years earlier against his former partner saw him stood down.

Gibson retired in 2011, and was replaced as Labor MP by John Robertson. Robertson had been a member of the Legislative Council since 2008, and before that secretary of Unions NSW for seven years. Robertson had served as a minister while sitting in the Legislative Council.

Following the 2011 election, Robertson was elected leader of the NSW Labor Party. He served as Leader of the Opposition until he resigned as leader in December 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Blacktown is a safe Labor seat.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Robertson Labor 19,419 44.1 -17.6 44.4
Karlo Siljeg Liberal 16,047 36.4 +15.7 35.9
Bernie Gesling Christian Democrats 2,639 6.0 -1.1 5.7
Paul Taylor Greens 2,473 5.6 +0.8 5.6
Wayne Olling Save Our State 1,177 2.7 +2.7 2.3
Louise Kedwell Independent 1,166 2.6 +2.6 2.3
Greg Coulter Independent 1,152 2.6 +2.6 2.3
Others 1.5

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Robertson Labor 20,796 53.7 -18.7 54.1
Karlo Siljeg Liberal 17,910 46.3 +18.7 45.9
Polling places in Blacktown at the 2011 NSW state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Blacktown at the 2011 NSW state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Blacktown have been split into three areas: east, south and west.

The Labor two-party-preferred vote ranged from 53.5% in the east to 55.5% in the west.

The Christian Democratic Party’s vote ranged from 4.7% in the east to 6.3% in the south. The Greens vote was 5.2% in all three areas.

Voter group ALP 2PP % CDP % GRN % Total % of votes
West 55.5 6.1 5.2 15,828 35.1
South 54.3 6.3 5.2 11,550 25.6
East 53.5 4.7 5.2 7,770 17.2
Other votes 53.1 5.3 6.8 9,908 22.0
Two-party-preferred votes in Blacktown at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Blacktown at the 2011 NSW state election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. There were talks about this seat being under threat earlier in the campaign but this has since disappeared.

    Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if this seat does vote Liberal again in a generation time, as the growth of the North West from Castle-Hill west continues to result in seats like Blacktown being replace with McMansions, resulting in this season becoming a swing seat.

  3. Raman Bhalla has run a relatively decent campaign, while John Robertson has been largely invisible. If it was 2011, Robertson would be certain to lose. He will win this comfortably. Likely to be his last term in the parliament.

  4. “Aquilina became a minister for the final two years of the Labor state government from 1986 to 1988. In 1991 he moved to Riverstone, which he has held ever since.” In fact he retired in 2011.

Comments are closed.