NAT 25.8%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Humphries, since 2007.
Geography
North-western NSW. Barwon is a massive seat, stretching from Broken Hill to Narrabri, and covering rural areas to the north of Dubbo. Barwon covers the entirety of thirteen local government areas: Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Broken Hill, Central Darling, Cobar, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Lachlan, Narrabri, Walgett, Warren and Warrumbungle, as well as unincorporated territory between Central Darling and Broken Hill.
Redistribution
Barwon expanded to cover Broken Hill, along with unincorporated NSW and the Central Darling council area, which was previously included in Murray-Darling. Barwon lost Moree Plains to Northern Tablelands, and lost some territory to the northwest of Narromine to Dubbo. Barwon also gained Barwon and Lake Cargelligo from Murrumbidgee. The addition of Broken Hill, which tends to lean towards Labor, was the biggest change, cutting the Nationals margin from 32% to 25.8%.
History
An electoral district named Barwon has existed since 1927. A previous incarnation existed from 1894 to 1904. Barwon has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since 1950.
The seat was first won by the Nationalist Party in 1927. The ALP held the seat from 1930 to 1932, and the Country Party held the seat from 1932 to 1940.
In 1940, the ALP’s Roy Heferen won the seat. He held it for the next decade. He was disendorsed for the 1950 election after he was suspected of having broken with the ALP and voted against the party line in a ballot to fill a vacancy in the Legislative Council in 1949. He ran as an independent, and the seat was won by the Country Party.
Geoff Crawford won the seat for the Country Party in 1950. He held the seat for eight terms, retiring in 1976. He also served as Minister for Agriculture from 1968 to 1975.
Wal Murray won the seat for the National Country Party in 1976. He became the party’s deputy leader in 1981, serving until 1984. In 1985, he was elected leader of the NSW National Party. He became Deputy Premier when the Coalition won power in 1988, and served in the role until 1993. He retired at the 1995 election.
Ian Slack-Smith held Barwon for the National Party from 1995 until his retirement in 2007. He was succeeded in 2007 by Kevin Humphries.
Kevin Humphries was re-elected in 2011, and has served as a minister in a variety of portfolios since the 2011 election.
Candidates
- Cameron Jones (Greens)
- Craig Ashby (Labor)
- Rohan Boehm (Independent)
- Nella Lopreiato (No Land Tax)
- Kevin Humphries (Nationals)
- Ian Hutchinson (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Barwon on paper is a safe Nationals seat, and will probably remain in Nationals hands. Kevin Humphries came within 6% of losing the seat to an independent in 2007, and a strong independent challenge could see Humphries have to work hard to hold on.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Humphries | Nationals | 30,949 | 79.1 | +34.8 | 72.2 |
| Patrick Massarani | Labor | 6,276 | 16.0 | -3.4 | 21.3 |
| Ian George | Greens | 1,882 | 4.8 | +1.8 | 5.9 |
| Others | 0.6 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Humphries | Nationals | 31,349 | 82.0 | +13.1 | 75.8 |
| Patrick Massarani | Labor | 6,883 | 18.0 | -13.1 | 24.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Barwon have been split into four parts. Polling places in the city of Broken Hill have been grouped together, with the remainder split as follows:
- Central – Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Central Darling and Cobar local government areas
- North-East – Narrabri and Walgett local government areas
- South-East – Coonamble, Gilgandra, Warren and Warrumbungle local government areas
The Nationals two-party-preferred vote ranged from 62% in Broken Hill to 83.5% in the north-east.
| Voter group | NAT 2PP % | GRN % | Total | % of votes |
| South-East | 77.4 | 5.6 | 9,303 | 19.4 |
| Broken Hill | 62.3 | 9.1 | 8,110 | 17.0 |
| North-East | 83.5 | 4.6 | 8,101 | 16.9 |
| Central | 75.9 | 4.7 | 7,746 | 16.2 |
| Other votes | 78.4 | 5.5 | 14,583 | 30.5 |
My prediction: Easy National hold, unless Rohan Boehm puts up a strong challenge.
Very disturbing that Labor lost Broken Hill last election.
Yes, it’s quite a departure. Such was the strength of the Labor vote in Broken Hill vote that up until 2007, Labor had always won the electorate(s) containing Broken Hill.
The Hillbillies should retain this seat,But the Independent is letterbox dropping and yesterday had leaflets placed on windscreens in Coonamble CBD. Rohan will give this a shake up and Kevie will need to start working the electorate or else he may be in trouble
Big stink here is Coal Seam Gas and the independent is against it should give him a boost
If the Hillbillies take their eye of the ball like they did with silly Gun control in the Ninties they may start losing seats again to Independents
Dont worry the punters wont vote labor Their not that desperate
I will vote for Rohan Boehm the Independent and he is making an effort fingers crossed
but Kev should win this one
The Beer swilling brigade in Broken Hill will preference Independent and will possibly be the only labor voters in the seat.
Pixies in the garden have again got Matt Parmenter running who will preference Labor
This could be interesting even though its a safe Nats seat
Although I vote Independent cant complain about Kevin He has given our little town of 400
New Jetty and Boat Ramp $5 million spent on on our central school resurfacing and lighting on our airstrip and in such a huge electorate with many needs we cant complain at all
MPs of safe seat can ignore their voters as they still get in, Our bloke sticks to NATS values
and has done a good job here even for a party man He will be my second choice
Boehm claims to have a ReachTEL showing Humphries’ primary halved and Humphries losing on preferences. Treating this with some caution in the absence of published figures but the seat’s now on my watch list.
Despite a few close calls, I’d think this would be among the tougher country seat to win for an Indi. How would you even campaign here?!
My thoughts exactly. When Horan came close in 2007 it was a much smaller seat. Now it covers such a broad area it would seem hard for an indie to win unless they’re a national celebrity.
I think electorates this size should be deemed unconstitutional as small parties and independents cannot campaign equally across the electorate due to its size. The Nationals can fly their people around shoot the small parties and independents cannot afford to travel as often as they need to.
But not shoot.
That’s what you get with such a centralised population (if you think it’s bad in NSW, look at WA or SA). WA has some mild malapportionment that survived the 2008 reforms, and not even that stops the five big remote seats from being half the size of NSW, each. If you tried PR Tassie-style, you’d probably end up with a multi-member district stretching from Armidale to Albury and everything west. There just aren’t very many people out here.