The Tally Room Elections and politics in Australia and around the world. Sat, 21 Apr 2018 22:26:03 +0000 en-US hourly 1 6127899 This week’s guides – April 21 Sat, 21 Apr 2018 03:09:15 +0000 There are eight new seat guides up on the website since I last updated last Friday.

These will continue to pop up, one per day, for the next few months.

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SA federal redistribution – here is the map Mon, 16 Apr 2018 00:00:26 +0000 I’ve now finished the draft boundary map for the SA federal redistribution, following on from the draft boundaries released the previous week for Victoria and the ACT.

Download the Google Earth map for the draft SA federal boundaries.

Remember there is a wide range of electoral maps – federal, state and local, dating back at least a decade – on the maps page.

And here is an interactive map. You can toggle on and off the 2016 and 2019 boundaries.

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New federal pendulum after recent redistributions Sat, 14 Apr 2018 03:10:08 +0000 Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution margins for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, as well as the post-redistribution margins for the draft boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.

I’ve included this pendulum below the fold, but you can also find it at this link. I’ve now posted the pendulum, along with a list of seats in alphabetical order and a list of seats by state, on the federal election guide. There are now twenty seat guides posted there, and I will keep posting at least one per day for the foreseeable future. The pendulum below won’t keep getting updated with fresh links but does include the twenty so far.

The only update since yesterday’s post is that I calculated two-candidate-preferred margins between the Liberal Party and the Nick Xenophon Team in Barker, Grey and Mayo. In these three seats, I calculated what proportion of primary votes for all other parties flowed to either of these two parties in the final count in those parts of the seat where NXT made the top two. Some areas were swapped back and forth between Grey and Barker, so they were included as if they had always been in the seat. This proportion was then applied to the remaining primary votes.

The figures are:

  • Barker – LIB vs NXT 4.2% (down from 4.7%)
  • Grey – LIB vs NXT 1.9% (down from 2.0%)
  • Mayo – NXT vs LIB 5.3% (up from 5.0%)

These are all shifts towards the NXT, but they should come with a grain of salt. They fit with the overall trend of the Liberal Party not losing any seats but having all of their seats become more marginal.

Coalition Seats Labor Seats
Seat Margin Seat Margin
Cox (VIC) LIB 0.03% Herbert (QLD) ALP 0.02%
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.6% Batman (VIC) ALP 0.7% vs GRN
Forde (QLD) LNP 0.6% Cowan (WA) ALP 0.7%
Gilmore (NSW) LIB 0.7% Longman (QLD) ALP 0.8%
Flynn (QLD) LNP 1% Dunkley (VIC) ALP 1%
Robertson (NSW) LIB 1.1% Lindsay (NSW) ALP 1.1%
Banks (NSW) LIB 1.4% Macnamara (VIC) ALP 1.2%
Petrie (QLD) LNP 1.6% Griffith (QLD) ALP 1.4%
Dickson (QLD) LNP 1.7% Braddon (TAS) ALP 1.7%
Grey (SA) LIB 1.9% vs NXT Macquarie (NSW) ALP 2.2%
Hasluck (WA) LIB 2.1% Eden-Monaro (NSW) ALP 2.9%
Page (NSW) NAT 2.3% Isaacs (VIC) ALP 3.1%
Boothby (SA) LIB 2.7% Perth (WA) ALP 3.3%
Chisholm (VIC) LIB 3% Lyons (TAS) ALP 3.8%
La Trobe (VIC) LIB 3.3% Bendigo (VIC) ALP 3.9%
Bonner (QLD) LNP 3.4% Moreton (QLD) ALP 4%
Dawson (QLD) LNP 3.4% Richmond (NSW) ALP 4%
Pearce (WA) LIB 3.6% Hotham (VIC) ALP 4.1%
Swan (WA) LIB 3.6% Dobell (NSW) ALP 4.8%
Leichhardt (QLD) LNP 3.9% Wills (VIC) ALP 4.9% vs GRN
Barker (SA) LIB 4.2% vs NXT Bass (TAS) ALP 5.4%
Casey (VIC) LIB 4.5% Jagajaga (VIC) ALP 5.6%
Cowper (NSW) NAT 4.6% vs IND Lilley (QLD) ALP 5.7%
Reid (NSW) LIB 4.7% McEwen (VIC) ALP 5.9%
Sturt (SA) LIB 5.4% Solomon (NT) ALP 6.1%
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 6% Greenway (NSW) ALP 6.3%
Stirling (WA) LIB 6.1% Burt (WA) ALP 7.1%
Deakin (VIC) LIB 6.3% Ballarat (VIC) ALP 7.4%
Canning (WA) LIB 6.8% Fremantle (WA) ALP 7.5%
Flinders (VIC) LIB 7% Parramatta (NSW) ALP 7.7%
Bowman (QLD) LNP 7.1% Blair (QLD) ALP 8.1%
Monash (VIC) LIB 7.5% Werriwa (NSW) ALP 8.2%
Higgins (VIC) LIB 7.6% vs GRN Lingiari (NT) ALP 8.2%
Aston (VIC) LIB 7.6% Barton (NSW) ALP 8.3%
Menzies (VIC) LIB 7.8% Macarthur (NSW) ALP 8.3%
Wide Bay (QLD) LNP 8.2% Adelaide (SA) ALP 8.3%
Hinkler (QLD) LNP 8.4% Corio (VIC) ALP 8.3%
New England (NSW) NAT 8.5% vs IND Hindmarsh (SA) ALP 8.4%
Ryan (QLD) LNP 9% Kingsford Smith (NSW) ALP 8.6%
Fisher (QLD) LNP 9.2% Bean (ACT) ALP 8.9%
Hughes (NSW) LIB 9.3% Oxley (QLD) ALP 9%
Wannon (VIC) LIB 9.4% Holt (VIC) ALP 9.7%
Wright (QLD) LNP 9.6% Shortland (NSW) ALP 9.9%
Bennelong (NSW) LIB 9.7% Maribyrnong (VIC) ALP 10.5%
Hume (NSW) LIB 10.2% Paterson (NSW) ALP 10.7%
Fairfax (QLD) LNP 10.9% Franklin (TAS) ALP 10.7%
Moore (WA) LIB 11% Makin (SA) ALP 10.8%
Tangney (WA) LIB 11.1% Rankin (QLD) ALP 11.3%
Durack (WA) LIB 11.1% Brand (WA) ALP 11.4%
Fadden (QLD) LNP 11.2% Fenner (ACT) ALP 11.8%
Warringah (NSW) LIB 11.6% vs GRN McMahon (NSW) ALP 12.1%
Lyne (NSW) NAT 11.6% Hunter (NSW) ALP 12.5%
McPherson (QLD) LNP 11.6% Canberra (ACT) ALP 12.9%
Calare (NSW) NAT 11.8% Cunningham (NSW) ALP 13.3%
Forrest (WA) LIB 12.6% Kingston (SA) ALP 13.5%
Goldstein (VIC) LIB 12.7% Whitlam (NSW) ALP 13.7%
Kooyong (VIC) LIB 12.7% Newcastle (NSW) ALP 13.8%
North Sydney (NSW) LIB 13.6% Bruce (VIC) ALP 14.2%
Moncrieff (QLD) LNP 14.6% Lalor (VIC) ALP 14.2%
O’Connor (WA) LIB 15% Gellibrand (VIC) ALP 15.1%
Parkes (NSW) NAT 15.1% Sydney (NSW) ALP 15.3%
Groom (QLD) LNP 15.3% Grayndler (NSW) ALP 15.8% vs GRN
Cook (NSW) LIB 15.4% Spence (SA) ALP 17.1%
Mackellar (NSW) LIB 15.7% Fowler (NSW) ALP 17.5%
Maranoa (QLD) LNP 15.9% vs ON Watson (NSW) ALP 17.6%
Berowra (NSW) LIB 16.4% Gorton (VIC) ALP 18.5%
Riverina (NSW) NAT 16.4% Chifley (NSW) ALP 19.2%
Wentworth (NSW) LIB 17.7% Blaxland (NSW) ALP 19.5%
Mitchell (NSW) LIB 17.8% Calwell (VIC) ALP 19.7%
Gippsland (VIC) NAT 18.3% Fraser (VIC) ALP 19.8%
Mallee (VIC) NAT 20.1% Scullin (VIC) ALP 20%
Farrer (NSW) LIB 20.5%
Curtin (WA) LIB 20.7% Indi (VIC) IND 4.9% vs LIB
Bradfield (NSW) LIB 21% Mayo (SA) NXT 5.3% vs LIB
Nicholls (VIC) NAT 22.4% Kennedy (QLD) KAP 10.6% vs LNP
Clark (TAS) IND 17.8% vs ALP
Melbourne (VIC) GRN 18.5% vs LIB
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SA redistribution live Fri, 13 Apr 2018 01:57:06 +0000 12:30pm – That’s all I’ll be posting today. I’ll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days.

12:26pm – On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has dropped 1.9%, and Labor has jumped by 3.1%, thanks to inclusion of Boothby and Kingston, which were seats where Labor competed much more strongly.

It’s also worth noting that the Liberal-Labor 2PP figure in all three seats where NXT broke into the top two have seen Labor’s position strengthen. I will have to make my own estimates of the LIB vs NXT margin in these three seats, but won’t happen until tomorrow.

12:20pm – So here are the toplines:

  • Labor has lost its sixth seat, thanks to the merger of Port Adelaide and Wakefield into Spence, which is a very safe seat.
  • The extremely marginal Labor seat of Hindmarsh has become reasonably safe, while Adelaide has also got a lot safer, and Makin is a bit safer.
  • It’s hard to predict the margins in Barker, Grey or Mayo because there were parts of these seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn’t involve NXT. So that’s why these margins haven’t changed much. About 86% of Grey and Mayo were already in the seat before the redistribution, while the figure is just over 90% for Barker.
  • The Liberal Party’s position has got weaker in Boothby and Sturt.

12:15pm – Here are my margin estimates.

Seat Old margin New margin
Adelaide ALP 4.7% ALP 8.3%
Barker LIB vs NXT 4.7% LIB vs NXT 4.2%
Boothby LIB 3.5% LIB 2.7%
Grey LIB vs NXT 2% LIB vs NXT 1.9%
Hindmarsh ALP 0.6% ALP 8.4%
Kingston ALP 17% ALP 13.5%
Makin ALP 9.7% ALP 10.8%
Mayo NXT vs LIB 5% NXT vs LIB 5.3%
Port Adelaide ALP vs NXT 14.9% Abolished
Spence (Wakefield) ALP 11% ALP 17.1%
Sturt LIB 5.9% LIB 5.4%

12:08pm – Here are my estimates of the 2PP and primary vote.

Vote estimates

Seat ALP 2PP LNP 2PP ALP prim LNP prim GRN prim NXT prim
Adelaide 58.3 41.7 39.07 32.55 10.0 13.7
Barker 36.1 63.9 16.32 45.56 3.6 28.6
Boothby 47.3 52.7 26.92 41.67 8.2 18.5
Grey 42.2 57.8 22.5 42.22 2.7 26.7
Hindmarsh 58.4 41.6 39.98 31.3 6.6 17.0
Kingston 63.5 36.5 45.3 26.16 5.8 18.1
Makin 60.8 39.2 42.7 27.47 4.7 16.7
Mayo 46.7 53.3 16.62 36.62 8.2 33.0
Spence 67.1 32.9 45.08 20.78 4.6 20.1
Sturt 44.6 55.4 23.3 44.38 7.6 19.9

11:56am – It turns out the redistribution was released at 11:30am east coast time, not Adelaide time (as predicted by the AEC) so I’m just catching up now. Will have estimates in a few minutes. It appears Wakefield and Port Adelaide have been merged as the seat of Spence.

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This week’s guides – April 13 Thu, 12 Apr 2018 23:30:56 +0000 Since I last posted about this, I’ve published eight more guides, with the links listed below:

I’ll keep publishing one guide per day, and you can see the most recent guides on the right-hand sidebar or on each guide’s front page. If you’d like to see a seat prioritised, you can make a request if you donate $5 or more per month via Patreon.

The South Australian redistribution is due out today. I plan to do a quick calculation of the margin but have some work commitments which may make that hard to do immediately. Watch this space!

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Double Disillusion – the definitive analysis of the 2016 election out now Thu, 12 Apr 2018 00:00:35 +0000 I’m very pleased to plug a new book that has just been published from ANU Press about the 2016 federal election entitled Double Disillusion.

The book will be available in hard copy and is also available as a free download.

This is the sixteenth edition in a series of election studies dating back half a century, covering each federal election in depth. It features chapters analysing the overall contest, each of the political parties’ campaigns, the impact of the media and interest groups, and the major policy debates of the election campaign, written by a bunch of excellent academic writers.

I was very happy to be able to contribute the chapter summarising the results in the House of Representatives, including the impact of minor parties, the role of preferences and a run-through of key seats. This is paired with a chapter analysing the Senate results by Antony Green.

Thank you to Anika Gauja and Peter Chen in particular for inviting me to participate in a formal space which I am not normally a part of.

There’s also a bunch of other excellent chapters and I hope readers find it useful and interesting as a definitive take on this bizarre election campaign.

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How should we be naming our federal seats? Wed, 11 Apr 2018 02:36:43 +0000 Australian federal electorates follow a fairly unique naming convention. Australian state seats are usually named after geographic locations, which is also common for national electorates in Canada, the UK and New Zealand, while electoral districts in the United States are generally given numerical names.

The majority of Australian federal electorates are named after prominent individual Australians, as a way of honouring those people. 113 out of 150 seats in the current parliament are named after people, while 37 are named after geographic features.

The AEC is usually hesitant to rename seats, and their guidelines prioritise maintaining existing seat names. Yet seats do change from time to time: states gain additional seats, population shifts within a state sometimes require a seat to be abolished, and there is pretty much a hard-and-fast rule that former prime ministers are honoured with a seat as soon as possible after their death.

Because of this practice, most seat names are those that were named in the first half of last century:

43 seats are those created for the first parliaments. 35 seats have survived since 1901, while eight other seats are the same as when they were created in Tasmania and South Australia in 1903 (those states did not use single-member electorates in 1901).

There were spikes in seat names in 1949 and 1984, when the parliament was expanded. More than two thirds of electorates were named in these three peak periods.

Thus it’s not surprising to discover a strong bias towards naming seats after white men. This partly reflects the era in which seat names were coined, but also reflects how men were much more likely to qualify as someone who had “rendered outstanding service to their country” in an era where women didn’t get the same opportunities.

After the fold I will run through why this has happened, and how the AEC isn’t making anywhere near enough progress towards honouring a more diverse cross-section of Australians. You can also download the dataset I used to conduct this analysis.

I count fifteen seats named after early explorers (all men) and eight named after British governors of Australian colonies (it was nine until Denison was renamed in the recent redistribution). There’s also fifteen seats named after politicians from the Federation era, all of whom are men. Not to mention the 21 former prime ministers who have seats named after them (which will increase to 22 with the new seat of Fraser in 2019).

All of this has contributed to a severe imbalance in who has been honoured with a seat name:

Almost six times as many seats are named after men as women. While there are fourteen indigenous seat names which refer to geography (plus Eden-Monaro, which is a mix), there are only five seats named after indigenous men. I may be wrong, but I don’t believe any seat is named after a person who is of an origin other than Aboriginal or British.

So considering this imbalance, what should we be doing to address it? There certainly has been a gradual shift towards naming seats after women, but it hasn’t come close to parity. This following graph is the same as above, but it breaks down seat names based on the gender of the person being honoured:

The original federation seat names have a strong bias in favour of naming seats after geographic features. 70% of seats named after a geographic feature date back to 1901.

There was a massive surge of seats named after men in 1949, and we also saw two seats named after women that year. Three other women were honoured with seats in 1974, 1996 and 2010, with ten being honoured when the parliament expanded in 1984 (but alongside fourteen men).

Even if roughly half of new seat names were named after women, we wouldn’t come close to parity without a massive expansion in the size of the House of Representatives.

The record has been quite dismal over the last two decades. 12 new seats have been named since 2001. Nine have been named after men, two have been named after families (Burt and Durack – Burt is entirely named after men, it’s not clear if Durack covers any women). Only one seat (Wright) was named after a woman.

But we are due for a big rush of new seat names in 2019. One has already been locked in: Denison (named after an early governor of Tasmania) has been renamed Clark after a Federation-era Tasmanian politician.

Two new seats were created in last week’s draft boundaries for Victoria and the ACT, but we also saw four other seats proposed to have their names changed. Three of these seats were previously named after geographic features.

When you add together these seven new names or name changes, only two of them would be named after women, with four named after men. The proposed seat of Nicholls would be named after both Doug and Gladys Nicholls.

So if these proposals were adopted, the gender balance would shift from 94-15 to 97-17 – pretty much no change.

What we name seats isn’t the biggest deal, but it is one of the way that we honour prominent Australians, and I think it’s a real problem that the vast majority of these seats are named after white men (particularly with such a bias towards 19th century figures).

All of the men proposed to have seats named after them are worthy people to consider – Andrew Inglis Clark, John Monash, Charles Bean, and of course Malcolm Fraser. But I’m sure there are a bunch of other people who would contribute more to us having a diverse range of people given this honour. I would like to see the AEC, and those making submissions, to think a bit more outside the box when considering how to name seats.

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ACT and Victorian redistributions – here are the maps Mon, 09 Apr 2018 23:29:57 +0000 I’ve finished making Google Earth maps for the draft federal boundaries for Victoria and the ACT, and they are now available for download:

I’ve also turned them into interactive maps below the fold, which show the 2016 and 2019 boundaries (you can toggle each layer on and off). Enjoy!

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ACT and VIC redistributions live Fri, 06 Apr 2018 01:45:55 +0000 3:01 – This is my last comment for now. I’ll be working on the boundary map over the weekend and plan to return by Monday with some more analysis. I just wanted to zoom out to the big picture.

Two extra seats were created today, bringing the total seats in the parliament to 152. This will drop back to 151 when the draft boundaries are released in South Australia. We’ve also had 3 other redistributions already finished this term but they all had minor impacts.

The seat totals now are:

  • Coalition – 75 (-1)
  • Labor – 72 (+3)
  • Others – 5 (-)

Labor previously needed a 1% uniform swing to become the largest party. They now need a 0.6% uniform swing. They previously needed a 1.4% swing to become the largest party. If you assume that the abolished SA seat is a Liberal or NXT seat, they will only need a swing of 0.7%. This increases to 1% if Labor loses a seat in the South Australian redistribution.

Overall this is a very good outcome for Labor and, combined with strong polling, puts them in a stronger position to win the next election.

2:45 – Corangamite has shifted east, losing touch with Lake Corangamite (hence the renaming to Cox) and taking in the Bellarine peninsula from Corio. This has almost entirely wiped out Sarah Henderson’s margin. McEwen lost some of its Melbourne fringe area, while also losing Puckapunyal and Seymour to Murray/Nicholls, but gained Macedon. Overall this weakened Labor’s hold on the seat. La Trobe shifted east, to sit more clearly on the eastern fringe of Melbourne, while the Bass Coast area has shifted into McMillan/Monash. Changes to the large rural seats appear to have been small.

2:42 – In the western suburbs, the new seat of Fraser mostly covers the Brimbank council area, taking in areas formerly contained in Maribyrnong, Gellibrand, Gorton and Calwell. All of these seats have been pushed away from the new seat in different directions.

2:36 – There’s been some significant redrawing in the south-east which will make Labor happy. It appears Goldstein has been left alone, Chisholm has shifted north (and become slightly safer for the Liberal Party), and Deakin has shifted east (likewise becoming safer). Isaacs has shifted north, pushing Hotham east, making both Labor seats more marginal. Bruce has shifted west, becoming a lot safer for Labor, and all of these changes have pulled up Dunkley, flipping it from marginal Liberal to marginal Labor.

2:22 – In the north-east, Jagajaga has lost its north-eastern tip and gained territory from Scullin, while Menzies has jumped the Yarra (which has reduced its margin).

2:17 – Changes in central Melbourne are relatively modest. Batman has lost its northern fringe to Scullin (which helps the Greens with the margin based on 2016 results), and gained Coburg North from Wills. Melbourne lost its north-western corner to Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong. Kooyong has expanded slightly on its eastern edge, while Windsor has moved from Higgins into Macnamara.

1:59 – The new electoral boundaries for the ACT improve the Greens chances of breaking through in the lower house (although they are still distant). The old boundaries spread the Greens vote evenly, with about 15% voting Green in both seats in 2016. These new boundaries push up their support in Canberra to 18.7%, while it’s down around 13% in the two other divisions.

1:55 – Now it’s time to take a look at the maps! I’ll be putting together my own interactive maps over the weekend but not for today. Firstly, it’s worth noting that Bean is actually a successor to the old Canberra, taking in Tuggeranong and other southern suburbs. The new Canberra takes in parts of the two old electorates and is centred on Lake Burley Griffin, as Canberra was the last time the ACT had three seats from 1996 to 1998. Here’s that seat’s map:

1:48 – I’ve now updated both tables with the correct numbers. The changes are quite small but please use these updated figures. I’ve now added in estimates for Indi and Higgins. In Indi I ignored a few thousand votes from Murray where we don’t have an IND vs LIB count. In Higgins I counted some Labor two-candidate-preferred from Hotham towards the Greens. In Melbourne I counted some Labor 2CP from Batman and Wills towards the Liberal.

1:24 – Okay I’m revising up my margin of McEwen from 3.6% to 5.9% and Nicholls down from 25.2% to 22.4%.

1:22 – I’m doing some tinkering with my estimates – found a small bug which mainly effected McEwen and Monash.

1:11 – I’ll have plenty to say about the AEC’s policy on naming divisions, but not right now.

1:10 – The Greens are closer to overtaking Michael Danby in his renamed seat of MacNamara. Danby outpolled the Greens by 3.2% to stay in second place on primary votes in 2016, but this gap has dropped to 2.35% on the new boundaries.

1:07 – This gives Labor 72 notional seats, with the Coalition down from 76 to 75, and five independents. Bear in mind that we will see a seat abolished in South Australia next week, so those numbers don’t add up.

1:05 – I can see one seat that has changed hands – Dunkley appears to be a notional Labor seat now. Cox (formerly Corangamite) has almost become a tied seat, while Labor has also gained the two new seats. Labor seats like Holt, Hotham, Isaacs and McEwen have all become more marginal.

1:02 – And here is my estimate of margins

I need to go back and calculate a LIB vs GRN margin for Higgins and also an independent margin for Indi.

Seat Old margin New margin
Aston LIB 8.6% LIB 7.6%
Ballarat ALP 7.3% ALP 7.4%
Batman ALP vs GRN 1% ALP vs GRN 0.7%
Bean (Canberra) ALP 8.5% ALP 8.9%
Bendigo ALP 3.7% ALP 3.9%
Bruce ALP 4.1% ALP 14.2%
Calwell ALP 17.9% ALP 19.7%
Canberra New seat ALP 12.9%
Casey LIB 6.1% LIB 4.5%
Chisholm LIB 1.2% LIB 3%
Corio ALP 10% ALP 8.3%
Cox (Corangamite) LIB 3.1% LIB 0%
Deakin LIB 5.7% LIB 6.3%
Dunkley LIB 1.4% ALP 1%
Fenner ALP 13.9% ALP 11.8%
Flinders LIB 7.8% LIB 7%
Fraser New seat ALP 19.8%
Gellibrand ALP 18.2% ALP 15.1%
Gippsland NAT 18.4% NAT 18.3%
Goldstein LIB 12.7% LIB 12.7%
Gorton ALP 19.5% ALP 18.5%
Higgins LIB vs GRN 8% LIB vs GRN 7.6%
Holt ALP 14.2% ALP 9.7%
Hotham ALP 7.5% ALP 4.1%
Indi IND vs LIB 4.8% IND vs LIB 4.9%
Isaacs ALP 5.7% ALP 3.1%
Jagajaga ALP 4.7% ALP 5.6%
Kooyong LIB 13.3% LIB 12.7%
La Trobe LIB 1.5% LIB 3.3%
Lalor ALP 13.4% ALP 14.2%
Macnamara (Melbourne Ports) ALP 1.4% ALP 1.2%
Mallee NAT 21.3% NAT 20.1%
Maribyrnong ALP 12.3% ALP 10.5%
McEwen ALP 7.8% ALP 5.9%
Melbourne GRN vs LIB 18.5% GRN vs LIB 18.5%
Menzies LIB 10.6% LIB 7.8%
Monash (McMillan) LIB 6% LIB 7.5%
Nicholls (Murray) NAT vs LIB 24.9% NAT 22.4%
Scullin ALP 17.3% ALP 20%
Wannon LIB 9% LIB 9.4%
Wills ALP vs GRN 4.9% ALP vs GRN 4.9%

12:51 – Okay here are my estimates of the vote in each seat. A comparison of margins will be up next.

Vote estimates

Seat ALP 2PP LNP 2PP ALP prim LNP prim GRN prim
Aston 42.4 57.6 30.99 49.69 8.9
Ballarat 57.4 42.6 43.32 38.9 10.8
Batman 72.0 28.0 35.12 19.71 36.6
Bendigo 53.9 46.1 38.65 41.36 10.9
Bruce 64.2 35.8 54.31 30.22 6.6
Calwell 69.7 30.3 58.43 25.9 8.2
Casey 45.5 54.5 28.17 47.49 12.9
Chisholm 47.0 53.0 34.69 47.15 11.4
Corio 58.3 41.7 43.54 36.52 11.7
Cox 50.0 50.0 34 43.74 12.1
Deakin 43.7 56.3 30.09 50.09 11.4
Dunkley 51.0 49.1 36.41 41.13 9.5
Flinders 43.0 57.0 27.55 50.55 11.0
Fraser 69.8 30.2 58.61 25.35 9.7
Gellibrand 65.1 34.9 46.1 29.8 19.1
Gippsland 31.7 68.3 20.12 56.25 7.8
Goldstein 37.3 62.7 21.88 56.33 15.9
Gorton 68.5 31.5 61.2 28.77 10.0
Higgins 39.9 60.1 16.53 51.58 24.2
Holt 59.7 40.3 48.64 33.98 6.5
Hotham 54.1 45.9 42.91 40.44 9.1
Indi 45.0 55.0 9.95 45.52 3.9
Isaacs 53.1 47.0 41.06 42.59 10.6
Jagajaga 55.6 44.5 41.05 40.14 13.5
Kooyong 37.3 62.7 20.72 57.51 18.5
La Trobe 46.7 53.3 32.13 44.25 8.2
Lalor 64.2 35.8 52.62 30.21 9.6
Macnamara 51.2 48.8 26.55 41.94 24.2
Mallee 29.9 70.1 22.34 63.29 7.0
Maribyrnong 60.5 39.6 42.07 33.69 17.3
McEwen 55.9 44.1 42.07 37.95 8.6
Melbourne 66.9 33.1 23.86 24.91 44.6
Menzies 42.2 57.8 26.95 49.8 10.4
Monash 42.5 57.5 27.84 49.82 10.1
Nicholls 27.6 72.4 17 64.85 4.4
Scullin 70.0 30.0 59.91 25.63 7.2
Wannon 40.6 59.4 29.91 53.48 8.1
Wills 71.6 28.4 37.89 21.52 31.0
Bean 58.9 41.1 44.48 37.28 13.6
Canberra 62.9 37.1 42.44 32.87 18.7
Fenner 61.8 38.2 45.97 33.29 13.0

12:37 – There was a campaign to rename Batman due to the seat’s namesake’s historical atrocities against Aboriginal people. Smaller campaigns focused on McMillan and Gellibrand. This appears to have succeeded in McMillan but not Gellibrand or Batman. The other three seats with new names were all named after geographic features. While the AEC has generally not supported seats named after geographic features, they haven’t actively sought to rename these seats when there’s not a need. This suggests a change in policy.

12:32 – According to this statement, the seat of Batman will not be renamed.

Other information includes:

  • 19.5% of electors will change their electorate.
  • Renaming of seats will effect 10.54% of electors.

I still don’t see the report or the data online.

12:30 – We don’t have anything online but there have been some people who must have the report tweeting about name changes, including:

  • The new ACT seat named Bean
  • McMillan renamed Monash
  • Melbourne Ports renamed Macnamara
  • Corangamite renamed Cox
  • Murray renamed Nicholls

And the new seat of Fraser will be in the north-west of Melbourne.

11:45 – The AEC is promising to release the draft electoral boundaries for the ACT and Victoria around ‘lunchtime’ or ‘midday’. I’ll be posting my analysis of those boundaries here as quickly as possible, prioritising calculating primary vote and 2PP by seat. Stay tuned.

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This week’s guides – April 5 Wed, 04 Apr 2018 23:30:01 +0000 Since last week’s post, I have published seven more guides. This includes the next five most marginal federal seats, as well as one donor request each for the Victorian and NSW state elections.

The federal seats are:

I’ve also published guides to the state seat of Shepparton in Victoria and Goulburn in NSW, both on the request of new patreon donors.

I’ll keep publishing one guide per day, and you can see the most recent guides on the right-hand sidebar or on each guide’s front page. If you’d like to see a seat prioritised, you can make a request if you donate $5 or more per month via Patreon.

I’m expecting a change of pace tomorrow with the publication of the draft federal boundaries in Victoria and the ACT (South Australia is due in April, but we don’t have a date). So keep an eye out for that.

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