Longman by-election, 2018

Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Susan Lamb is expected to resign due to her being a dual citizen at the time of nomination for the 2016 election, after the High Court clarified the constitutional requirements on May 9, 2018.

Margin – ALP 0.8%

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.

Candidates

  • Susan Lamb (Labor)
  • Trevor Ruthenberg (Liberal National)
  • Matthew Stephen (One Nation)

Assessment
Longman is an extremely marginal seat. Labor benefited in 2016 from a favourable how-to-vote preference recommendation from One Nation. Without that preference flow the seat would’ve likely stayed with the LNP, and a change in recommendation may set Labor back. This seat could well flip to the LNP if they contest the by-election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 34,35939.0-5.8
Susan Lamb Labor 31,16135.4+4.7
Michelle PedersenOne Nation8,2939.4+9.4
Ian Bell Greens 3,8654.4+0.5
Will SmithFamily First3,0023.4+1.1
Frances McdonaldDrug Law Reform2,6773.0+3.0
Brad KennedyKatter’s Australian Party1,5971.8-1.0
Greg RiddellIndependent1,1111.3+1.3
Rob LawIndependent9451.1+1.1
Caleb WellsIndependent8300.9-0.1
Stephen BeckArts Party2280.3+0.3
Informal8,2178.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 44,72950.8+7.7
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 43,33949.2-7.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone.

Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

Labor won a large two-party-preferred majority of 60.8% in Caboolture-Morayfield and a smaller majority of 53.9% in Burpengary. The LNP won majorities in the two less populous areas: 52.9% in Pumicestone and 54.2% in the west.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 7.8% in Pumicestone to 10.9% in the west.

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield10.160.815,88118.0
Burpengary8.453.914,94217.0
Pumicestone7.847.18,96910.2
West10.945.85,3596.1
Other votes11.045.814,47916.4
Pre-poll9.048.228,43832.3

Election results in Longman at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.