Wright – Election 2010

LIB 3.8%

Incumbent MP
Wright is a new seat, primarily covering areas previously included in Blair and Forde:

  • Shayne Neumann (ALP), Member for Blair since 2007.
  • Brett Raguse (ALP), Member for Forde  since 2007.

Geography
Wright covers rural parts of South-East Queensland. Wright covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast hinterland, rural parts of the City of Logan, and the entirety of Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim council areas. Wright covers the towns of Boonah, Beaudesert, Gatton and Laidley, and comes close to the major centres of Logan, Gold Coast, Ipswich and Toowoomba.

Redistribution
The vast majority of Wright’s population was previously included in Blair and Forde. Blair covered Lockyer Valley and western parts of Scenic Rim LGA. Forde covered the eastern parts of Scenic Rim and those areas in Logan. Small parts of the seat were included in Rankin, Fadden, Moncrieff and McPherson.

History
As a new electorate, Wright has no history. Both of the main seats previously covering Wright’s territory are also recent creations.

Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election.

In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.

Blair was created for the 1998 election, and took over Ipswich from the seat of Oxley, which at the time was held by One Nation founder Pauline Hanson. Hanson ran for Blair, topping the poll on primary votes. The ALP polled second, with Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson third. Thompson gained Nationals preferences, then defeated Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson won by more comfortable margins in 2001 (58.5%) and 2004 (61.2%). The redistribution cut Thompson’s margin by 5.5% before the 2007 election. A 10% swing saw the ALP’s Shayne Neumann won the seat on a second attempt.

Candidates
The Liberal National Party originally preselected Hajnal Ban, a Logan City councillor and the Nationals’ candidate for Forde at the 2007 election. Ban is prominent for admitting to have undertaken surgery to extend the length of her legs. Ban won preselection over former Member for Blair Cameron Thompson. Ban was recently disendorsed, and the LNP has snow preselected Barnaby Joyce staffer Scott Buchholz.

The ALP had original preselected Sharon Murakami, but the result was overturned and she was replaced by CFMEU official Andrew Ramsay. Family First are running Jeremy Fredericks.

Political situation
While this seat’s margin suggests it could be won by the ALP, the local factors suggest the ALP has little chance of winning in 2010. The ALP won Blair and Forde in 2007 with swings of 14% and 10%, making it unlikely that they can gain further swings in Wright.

Wright also covers traditionally rural conservative areas. While the LNP candidate is a former National, the seat would have gone to the Liberals over the Nationals before the merger and there is an understanding that a successful candidate will sit with the Liberals in Canberra.

2007 result – Blair

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shayne Neumann ALP 40,663 48.83 +11.99
Cameron Thompson LIB 35,133 42.19 -5.17
Peter Luxton GRN 3,262 3.92 +0.68
Bevan Smith FF 1,718 2.06 -1.56
Dale Chorley IND 1,429 1.72 +1.72
David White DEM 735 0.88 -0.44
Doug Swanborough LDP 196 0.24 +0.24
Robert Theis CEC 143 0.17 -0.41

2007 two-candidate-preferred result – Blair

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Shayne Neumann ALP 45,369 54.48 +10.17
Cameron Thompson LIB 37,910 45.52 -10.17

2007 result – Forde

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brett Raguse ALP 34,721 44.35 +12.15
Wendy Creighton LIB 26,576 33.95 -19.14
Hajnal Ban NAT 9,550 12.20 +12.12
Andy Grodecki GRN 3,756 4.80 +0.73
Iona Abrahamson FF 1,756 2.24 -1.84
Rod Evans ON 671 0.86 -2.87
Chris Coyle IND 623 0.80 +0.80
Maaz Syed DEM 419 0.54 -0.79
Daniel Hope CEC 216 0.28 +0.05

2007 two-candidate-preferred result – Forde

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Brett Raguse ALP 41,419 52.91 +14.43
Wendy Creighton LIB 36,869 47.09 -14.43

Booth breakdown
I have divided Wright’s booths into the four local government areas contained in the seat. I have also listed the ‘other votes’ result for both Blair and Forde. These categories include votes cast by those not included in the new Wright, but are included as extra information about the seats that previously covered Wright.

The ALP won a majority in Logan, which is  the second-most populous part of the seat. The Liberals won majorities in all other areas.

Polling booths in Wright. Logan in red, Gold Coast in blue, Scenic Rim in yellow, Lockyer Valley in green.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Scenic Rim 6.30 57.41 18,252 32.21
Logan 4.24 46.96 15,646 27.62
Lockyer Valley 3.09 55.36 15,223 26.87
Gold Coast 5.87 60.95 7,536 13.30
Other votes (Forde) 5.70 48.58 13,837
Other votes (Blair) 4.64 47.27 12,197

Polling booths in Wright, showing results of the 2007 election.

Polling booths in Wright, showing results of the 2007 election in the Lockyer Valley.

Polling booths in Wright, showing results of the 2007 election around Logan.