Fairfax – Election 2010

LIB 3.0%

Incumbent MP
Alex Somlyay, since 1990.

Geography
Sunshine Coast of Queensland. Fairfax covers the central part of Sunshine Coast Regional Council. It covers the towns of Buderim, Maroochydore and Nambour, as well as following the coast from Maroochydore to Coolum Beach.

Redistribution
Fairfax gained a small area from Wide Bay to the southwest of Noosa Heads, including the suburb of Doonan. Fairfax lost areas to the south of Nambour and Buderim including Sippy Downs, Eudlo and Montville.

History
Fairfax was first created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded, and has always been held by conservative parties. The seat was first won by Evan Adermann of the National Party, who had previously held Fisher since the 1972 election and served as a minister in the Fraser government.

Adermann retired at the 1990 election, and the seat was fought as a three-cornered contest in 1990. The ALP came first on primaries, with the Nationals leading the Liberals by 0.7% on primary votes. A high Democrats vote pushed the Liberals ahead of Nationals candidate John Stone, who had resigned from the Senate to contest the seat, and Alex Somlyay (LIB) won the seat on National preferences.

Somlyay has held the seat ever since by varying margins, most recently having a margin of over 62% following the redistribution before the 2007 election. A 9.4% swing to the ALP made Fairfax a marginal seat following the 2007 election.

Candidates
Information released in late 2009 regarding a possible serious illness of Somlyay raises questions about whether he will run for re-election. The ALP has preselected Dan McIntyre.

Political situation
The huge swings to the ALP in Queensland in 2007 pushed Fairfax into the marginal seat category, and it is yet to be seen as to whether there is any more room for the Labor vote to grow.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Somlyay LIB 38,470 46.82 -6.90
Debbie Blumel ALP 29,960 36.46 +9.22
Dave Norris GRN 7,011 8.53 +0.36
Lisa Woods FF 3,287 4.00 -1.01
Max Phillips IND 1,300 1.58 +1.58
Kevin Savage ON 861 1.05 -2.07
Janette Hashemi DEM 764 0.93 -1.25
Kev Watt CEC 514 0.63 +0.42

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Somlyay LIB 43,558 53.01 -9.40
Debbie Blumel ALP 38,609 46.99 +9.40

Results do not take into consideration effects of the redistribution.

Booth breakdown
The large size of Queensland local government areas means that Fairfax is entirely contained within Sunshine Coast, so there are not any easy boundaries to use to divide booths into smaller areas. I have grouped together booths into the following four groups:

  • Buderim-Maroochydore – covers booths around these two main towns.
  • Nambour – covers booths in Nambour and in the areas between Nambour and Buderim and Maroochydore.
  • Coast – covers booths following the coast from north of Maroochydore to Coolum Beach.
  • Inland – covers those six booths to the north and west of Nambour and not on the coast.

The Liberal Party won a substantial majority in the south-eastern corner of the seat where over two thirds of voters reside. This includes Buderim, Maroochydore and Nambour, although the ALP won a majority in the booths in the town of Nambour itself, hometown of the former Prime Minister and current Treasurer. The ALP won smaller majorities along the coast and inland.

Polling booths in Fairfax. Buderim-Maroochydore in green, Nambour in yellow, Coast in blue, Inland in red.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Buderim-Maroochydore 7.12 55.97 24,553 40.56
Nambour 7.94 51.41 16,938 27.98
Coast 10.94 47.12 11,460 18.93
Inland 13.50 49.56 7,583 12.53
Other votes 8.04 55.52 17,181

Polling booths in Fairfax, showing results of the 2007 election.