Archive for July, 2010

Deeply off the record…

Many commentators have reacted with great surprise to how long it took the Liberal Party to preselect candidates for the Western Sydney marginal seats of Lindsay, Greenway and Parramatta. Parramatta was held by the Liberals until 2004, Lindsay until 2007, and Greenway is still Liberal-held, but the redistribution moved it into the Labor column, leading the sitting Liberal member to contest the neighbouring seat of Macquarie.

Yet despite these seats’ recent record of electing Liberals, the party has only preselected for Lindsay this week, with preselections to come on Saturday in Greenway and Parramatta.

It appears some light has been shed on the delays today when Barry O’Farrell, state Liberal leader, appears to have accidentally sent a message out publicly on Twitter when it was only intended to be seen by Fairfax Radio’s Latika Bourke.

The tweet appears to be in reference to the timetable for preselection in those seats and the struggle to find candidates – which would explain the low profile of all of those announced as contenders.

But it is still very unclear what the ‘internal poll’ could be telling them. It would be no surprise that the ALP would be favourites to win those seats, despite the ALP’s recent bed-wetting over the possibility of losing Lindsay. Yet how bad could it be that the party couldn’t find a candidate willing to take a punt on getting a federal seat, or so bad that they wouldn’t bother finding a candidate with enough time to win the seat?

The tweet has now been deleted, but it is sure to be highly embarrassing, and does suggest that the Liberals are struggling to compete federally in Western Sydney after their 2007 defeat.

Update: GhostWhoVotes in comments has pointed out that the original tweet still exists, even though it has disappeared from O’Farrell’s Twitter feed. It seems it isn’t so easy to delete tweets that have been retweeted.

instantempo  |  instantempo on FB  |  instantempo on TW  |  instantempo on YT  |  case prefabbricate

Seat profile #143: Perth

Perth is a relatively safe seat for the ALP covering the Perth CBD and areas to the northeast. The seat covers the suburbs of Maylands, Mount Lawley, Bayswater, Ashfield, Bedford, Morley and Beechboro, as well as Perth itself.

The seat had a long history of being marginal, but recently has become a reasonably solid Labor seat, having been held by the ALP continuously since 1983. The seat was held from 1983 to 1993 by Olympic hockey player Ric Charlesworth, who competed in his fourth and fifth Olympics while holding the seat of Perth. Charlesworth retired in 1993 at the ripe old age of 41, and was succeeded by Stephen Smith. He has held the seat ever since, and is now Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade in the federal Labor government.

Continue reading…

Seat profile #142: Fremantle

Fremantle is a safe Labor seat in Perth. The seat covers the centre of Fremantle itself, as well as surrounding areas, including Cockburn, Coolbellup, Palmyra, Success, Atwell, Jandakot, Spearwood, Coogee, Beaconsfield and Hamilton.

It has been held continuously by the ALP since 1934. The seat was held by John Curtin from 1929 to 1931 and again from 1934 until his death in 1945. He was replaced in 1945 by Kim Beazley Sr, who served as a senior Labor figure during the long years in opposition in the 1950s and 1960s, and served as a minister in the Whitlam government. He was succeeded in 1977 by John Dawkins, who served as a cabinet minister in the Hawke government and as Paul Keating’s Treasurer until his retirement in 1993. The seat was won in a 1994 by-election by former Premier Carmen Lawrence, who held the seat until her retirement in 2007.

At the last election, the seat was won by former United Nations lawyer Melissa Parke.

Continue reading…

Maps of federal MPs by gender

A year ago I made a map where I colour-coded seats in the NSW parliament according to gender. With the rise of our first female Prime Minister, and the impending federal election, I figured it would be worth making a similar map for federal electorates.

After the fold, I have maps showing the gender of each federal MP after the last federal election.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: ,

Galaxy/Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor, Greens on 14/13

I don’t usually post about the regular polls that we will see more of over the next few weeks as we plunge into the election, but I’ll make an exception for the two polls coming out overnight.

We have had two polls in the last few hours. The Galaxy poll in the Courier-Mail and the Neilsen poll in Fairfax newspapers. Both have Julia Gillard on 52% on two-party preferred teams, and both have the Greens recovering votes, up from 11 to 14 in Galaxy and up from 8 to 13 in Neilsen.

It is now worth noting that we now have a series of polls since Gillard took over as Prime Minister. All have the ALP in a winning position for the election, but with the exception of the weekend’s Morgan poll which had the ALP on 56.5%, none of them have the ALP on any more than 55%.

While they are a slight improvement over Kevin Rudd’s performance, overall the ALP’s chances of re-election have only really improved slightly. Kevin Rudd’s polls put him in a position where he was the favourite to win. After the last week’s events around asylum seeker policies, you would have to say that Julia Gillard, while the favourite to win the election, could very easily lose to Tony Abbott if things don’t go her way.

We now also have the first poll showing a recovery in support for the Greens after the Green vote fell when Gillard became Prime Minister. It isn’t at all surprising that the Greens would be recovering considering recent developments in climate change, asylum seeker and mining tax policy, but does indicate that the appeal of an atheist, childless woman as Prime Minister can only obscure the rightward drift of the Labor government for so long.

Having said all of that, it does appear that not a great deal has changed in terms of polling since Kevin Rudd was deposed. The ALP has a small but election-winning lead over the Liberal Party, with the Greens on track for an increased vote, but much of that appears soft and willing to consider switching back to Labor. You’d have to say that, based solely on polling, the overthrow of Kevin Rudd was one of the biggest over-reactions in recent political history.

Seat profile #141: Brand

Brand is a Labor seat to the south of Perth. The seat covers coastal areas from Kwinana to Mandurah, with a majority of the seat’s population living in the Rockingham council area.

The seat has existed since the 1984 election, and has always been held by the ALP, but isn’t held by a large margin. The seat was held by Kim Beazley from 1996 to 2007. Beazley had previously held the marginal seat of Swan from 1980 to 1996, and had served as a minister in the Hawke-Keating government. Beazley served as Labor leader from 1996 to 2001 and from 2005 to 2006. Beazley retired in 2007.

Brand was won in 2007 by Gary Gray, a former ALP national secretary.

Continue reading…

Seat profile #140: Bendigo

Bendigo is a marginal Labor seat in western Victoria. Bendigo is an original federation electorate which has been held by different parties throughout its history. The seat was held by Prime Minister Billy Hughes from 1917 to 1922, and was the only seat Hughes held outside the Sydney area. The seat was also held by John Brumby from 1984 to 1990, long before he became Victorian premier. The seat was won by the ALP’s Steve Gibbons in 1998, and he was re-elected in 2001, 2004 and 2007.

The seat covers Bendigo itself and surrounding areas, including Castlemaine and Maryborough.

Continue reading…

Seat profile #139: Ballarat

The seat of Ballarat is a relatively safe Labor seat in northwestern Victoria. The seat covers the town of Ballarat itself and surrounding areas, including towns such as Bacchus Marsh.

The seat has been held by the ALP’s Catherine King since 2001, who won it upon the retirement of previous Liberal member Michael Ronaldson (who has now returned as a Senator). The seat has swung back and forth between the major parties since ever since Alfred Deakin retired from the seat a century ago, but has been solidified by King over the last few years, and she now holds the seat by an 8.2% margin.

Continue reading…

Seat profile #138: Wannon

Wannon is a Liberal seat in southwestern Victoria. The seat borders South Australia and runs along Bass Strait as far east as Corangamite Shire. The seat covers the towns of Warrnambool, Ararat, Portland and Stawell, as well as the Grampians.

The seat has been held by David Hawker since 1983. Hawker served as Speaker of the House of Representatives from 2005 to 2007. The seat was previously held by Malcolm Fraser, who originally lost the seat at his first attempt in 1954 by a 17-vote margin before winning the seat comfortably in 1955.

Continue reading…

Seat profile #137: Mallee

Mallee is a safe Nationals seat in northwestern Victoria. Mallee covers the towns of Mildura, Swan Hill, Horsham and Warracknabeal. The seat borders both New South Wales and South Australia.

Mallee is held by Nationals MP John Forrest by a 21% margin. Forrest has held the seat since 1993. Mallee is the safest Coalition seat in the country.

Continue reading…