| Conservative | 305 | +97 |
| Labour | 258 | -91 |
| Liberal Democrat | 57 | -5 |
| Democratic Unionist | 8 | -1 |
| Scottish National Party | 6 | - |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | - |
| Plaid Cymru | 3 | +1 |
| Social Democratic and Labour Party | 3 | - |
| Alliance | 1 | +1 |
| Green Party | 1 | +1 |
| Ulster Conservative and Unionist | 0 | -1 |
| Independent | 1 | -1 |
Click through to read the liveblog of the election results.
UK voters are now casting their votes in the 2010 general election. Over the last few days we have seen a clear trend in polls in the UK: the Conservatives are clearly in first place around 35%, with the Lib Dems and Labour in a statistical dead heat in second place around 28%.
While these figures are quite clear and consistent amongst all the polls, it is extremely difficult to make predictions. Polls in the past have overestimated Labour’s support, which would suggest we are on track for the Lib Dems to come second. On the other hand, that tradition took place in an era when voting Labour was popular and cool, while voting Conservative was not. It is possible that such a trend could be reversed, and “shy Tories” could be replaced by “shy Labour”.
The biggest question, however, is how the vote numbers translate into seats. Most of the British media has been using the “Uniform National Swing” model to produce figures for how they expect the numbers to go, and expect a variation on this model to be used by the BBC to extrapolate their exit poll into a result. Having said that, you would have to think that with such massive turmoil in the polls and shifts in support and the rise of the Lib Dems, you would expect the swing to be very non-uniform, and in ways that could effect it. I would expect that the result would deviate away from UNS in such a way that sees Labour lose more seats to both the Tories and the Lib Dems.
This has been reflected in the model used by US polling blog FiveThirtyEight, who have developed a model where they make interpretations about which voters are switching between parties and use a variation on proportional swing. While the UNS model used by FiveThirtyEight sees a 36-28 gap between Tory and Labour leave the Tories with only ten seats more (and so far short of a majority that only the Lib Dems could deliver a majority), the FiveThirtyEight model on similar figures sees Labour lose sixty more seats: fourty to the Conservatives and twenty to the Lib Dems.
Despite my earlier refusal, I think it’s worth me taking a punt at a prediction. I won’t make detailed seat-by-seat, or even region-by-region picks, but I will make a few broad statements.
First of all, I think the polls are mostly right, but if anything the Lib Dems could be slightly underestimated, which could see them overtake Labour, but I give Labour a 60% chance of coming second. Apart from that, the voting figures of 36/28/28 will be roughly reflected. UK polls have improved tremendously and the final polls are all very close to each other this time around.
So here’s my prediction. Let’s start with the small parties. I predict that the Greens will win Brighton Pavilion, where they will gain the boost received elsewhere by the Lib Dems, who haven’t shown much signs of campaigning in the seat, so shouldn’t siphon too many votes away from Labour and Green.
I also predict that George Galloway will pull off a win in Poplar & Limehouse, but that Labour will regain his seat of Bethnal Green & Bow, but I reckon there could be a chance that the Respect candidate could retain that seat, giving the party two seats in eastern London.
Plaid Cymru will retain their three seats, despite the redistribution reducing their numbers to two. I predict the SNP will gain seven seats. Without trying to name them, their surge of 2007-8 has receded and Labour appears to be mostly maintaining its position in Scotland, with the small protest vote against them going to the Lib Dems. Having said that, the sole Conservative MP could well lose his seat, leaving them with no seats there again.
I also predict that Sinn Fein and the SDLP will retain their seats (5 and 3 respectively), but I won’t try and make predictions about how the ten unionists seats will be split between the DUP and the UUP/Conservative alliance.
I also predict that Speaker John Bercow and the two independents will retain their seats.
As for the majors, I won’t pick exact numbers, but the Conservatives will get just short of 320 (my numbers came out as 319), Labour just short of 200 and the Lib Dems around 100, possibly slightly over.
The consequences of this result would be a hung parliament, but not one where the Lib Dems are the key powerbrokers. With the Conservatives so close to a majority the option of a Labour/Lib Dem pact is not available. In addition, the Tories would have a number of options, including the Lib Dems, the Celtic nationalists and the Northern Ireland unionists. They could stitch up a deal with the DUP, the Lib Dems, or attempt to go it alone, and wouldn’t have too much trouble getting support on each issue. You would likely see Cameron govern moderately and modestly for a year or two before calling another election when he sees the opportunity to gain a majority.
This is the scenario where the order of votes between Labour and Lib Dem will become important. While I predict the Lib Dems to win around 100 seats, you would expect a lot more seats to become marginals on the Lib Dem target list, seats where the party was not expected to win but had performed strongly. If Labour manages to come second I expect they will pull together and unite to prevent Cameron’s government from functioning with a working majority. But if the Lib Dems manage to come second they will be put in a position where an election a year or two down the track could see them challenge Labour in many more seats and eclipse them as the major force on the left in British politics.
Polls close at 10pm in the UK (7am Australian Eastern Standard Time) and I will be up to blog from then on. At that time we should see the joint BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll, and begin to see results within two hours.
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat in southwestern Sydney. It covers the centre of Bankstown and surrounding areas, as well as parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn councils.
Blaxland was previously held by Paul Keating from 1969 until the defeat of his government in 1996. The seat was won by former Bob Carr advisor Jason Clare in 2007, who defeated sitting MP Michael Hatton for preselection.
Chifley is a safe Labor seat in northwestern Sydney, covering western parts of the City of Blacktown. Chifley has been held by Labor MP Roger Price since 1984, although Price is retiring in 2010. Chifley covers part of the centre of Blacktown and other nearby suburbs including Mount Druitt, Doonside and Rooty Hill. The ALP is standing union official Ed Husic at this year’s election, and he should easily win the seat.
McMahon is a seat in Western Sydney, covering substantial parts of Fairfield council as well as parts of Holroyd and Penrith councils. The seat is a renamed version of the seat of Prospect, which covered almost exactly the same area at the 2007 election. Prospect was a safe Labor seat ever since its creation in 1969, and McMahon is no different.
It is held by the ALP with a 13.8% margin, and should be safely won by sitting Member for Prospect Chris Bowen, who is Minister for Financial Services, Superannuation and Corporate Law and Minister for Human Services in Kevin Rudd’s cabinet.
Fowler is a safe Labor seat in south-western Sydney. It covers Cabramatta, parts of Fairfield and parts of Liverpool. It has been held by outspoken backbencher Julia Irwin since 1998, but she is retiring and will be replaced by sitting Member for Werriwa Chris Hayes, who was forced from his seat as part of a factional deal which saw Laurie Ferguson move from Reid to Werriwa. It is one of the safest Labor seats in the country, and that is unlikely to change in 2010.
Voters in the United Kingdom go to the polls this Thursday, and the race remains one of the most fascinating in recent history.
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has managed to largely hold on to the support he gained following the first debate, although commentators disagreed about whether Clegg or Conservative leader David Cameron won the second and third debates.
The last few days of the campaign haven’t gone well for Gordon Brown, with it reaching its low point on Friday, when Brown was caught speaking into an open mic disparagingly about a voter he had just spoken to, calling her a ‘bigoted woman’. The story has dominated the news for the last two days.
In terms of the poll, a trend has been clear for the last week. The Conservatives have topped every poll for the last week, polling in the low to mid 30s. The Lib Dems have come second in most polls, closely followed by Labour. This is reflected in UK Polling Report’s polling average of CON 35, LD 28, LAB 27. Such a result would see the Conservatives win 282 seats, Labour win 250 and the Lib Dems win 86 under the uniform national swing model.
This model of calculating the effects of swings has been criticised by Nate Silver of US psephological blog FiveThirtyEight, who has produced a new sophisticated model. Silver’s model would see Labour lose far more seats, with the Conservatives winning a few more seats and the Lib Dems a lot more. Having said that, all of the projections produce a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party, followed by Labour and the Lib Dems, who would gain a large number of extra seats without overtaking either major party.
Prominent UK psephobloggers Robert Ford and Anthony Wells have engaged in the debate, with Nate Silver responding, and they are well worth reading before trying to interpret the consequences of opinion polls over the next few days. While it is relatively simple to predict the general consequences of swings in elections with simple two-party races and small swings, but in such a dramatic race with massive shifts in polls, it is extremely difficult to predict the result across the constituencies.
I will be covering the election results on Friday morning Australian time as the UK results begin to flow in. I’m also expecting my UK election map to be used on the air for CNN International’s election coverage, so keep an eye out.