Port Adelaide is a safe Labor seat in northern Adelaide. The seat covers the aforementioned port and surrounding areas. It was first created in 1949 and has always been held by Labor MPs. It was won in 2007 by Mark Butler, a prominent figure in the South Australian Labor Left, and now a Parliamentary Secretary. The ALP shouldn’t have any trouble retaining the seat in 2010.
Makin is a marginal seat in northeastern Adelaide. The seat was first created for the 1984 election, and in its short history has always been won by the party that formed government. The seat was held by controversial Liberal MP Trish Draper for the length of the Howard government, but she lost to Labor candidate Tony Zappia with a large swing at the 2007 election.
Mayo is a large regional seat covering the Adelaide Hills and areas to the south and east of Adelaide, including Kangaroo Island. The seat has been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1984, but it has been targetted by minor parties on a number of occasions. The Democrats came close to beating Alexander Downer at the 1990 and 1998 elections. Downer retired in 2008 and the ensuing by-election saw the Greens come close to defeating Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs.
I have now posted my guide to the Penrith state by-election, to be held on June 19 following the resignation of Labor MP Karyn Paluzzano. You should also check out the guide to the federal election, as I have now finished all seats in New South Wales and South Australia, for a total of 98 seats.
Mackellar is a safe Liberal seat on the northern beaches of Sydney. It covers suburbs such as Frenchs Forest, Dee Why, Narrabeen, Avalon and Collaroy.
Mackellar is held by senior Liberal Bronwyn Bishop, who has held the seat since 1994 and had previously served as a Senator for New South Wales. Bishop was once considered a leadership contender, but her chances quickly faded, and she served only as a junior minister in the first two terms of the Howard government. The seat is very strongly Liberal and she should have no trouble winning re-election in 2010.
Bradfield is a very safe Liberal seat on the upper north shore of Sydney. Bradfield covers most of Ku-ring-gai council area as well as parts of Hornsby. Key suburbs include Turramurra, St Ives, Killara and Wahroonga.
Bradfield was previously held by former Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, prior to his 2009 resignation. The seat was won by Liberal candidate Paul Fletcher at a 2009 by-election, winning comfortably in a race without a Labor candidate, despite a strong Greens campaign.
Berowra is a safe Liberal seat covering parts of northern Sydney. It covers parts of the Hills district and most of Hornsby council area, including Hornsby, Berowra, Cherrybrook and Pennant Hills.
The seat has always been held by the Liberal Party, and has been held by Philip Ruddock since 1993. Ruddock had previously held other seats since winning the 1973 Parramatta by-election, making him the longest-serving current member of the Australian Parliament by a decade, and the fifth longest-serving member of Parliament ever. Ruddock should easily win election in 2010.
Mitchell is a safe Liberal seat in the Hills district of northwestern Sydney. The seat has always been held by the Liberals, and was held by Liberal backbencher Alan Cadman for over thirty years from 1974 to 2007. The seat was won in 2007 by prominent young right-wing factional warrior Alex Hawke. The seat covers Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville. The seat should be comfortably retained by the Liberal Party in 2010.
Parramatta is a Labor seat covering the largest centre in Western Sydney and surrounding areas. The seat is currently held by the ALP with a margin of just under 10%, but has a history of being a marginal seat, most recently being held by the Liberal Party up until the 2004 election. The seat is currently held by Labor MP Julie Owens.
We’ve now got results in most seats in the UK general election. There are twenty-two seats that will not begin counting until later today, and there is one seat, Thirsk & Malton in North Yorkshire. Apart from those twenty-three seats, there are 14 seats yet to declare. Eight of these seats are in London, where the count was delayed due to local borough elections. There are two in the North West, one in Northern Ireland, one in Essex just outside of London, one in the East Midlands and one in the West Midlands.
Overall, results have varied remarkably, with the Conservatives winning seats far down their target list and missing out on seats that were held by only slim margins. The Liberal Democrats overall have lost ground, suffering a net loss of seven seats, although their losses were greater, and were compensated with a number of gains. The SNP and Plaid Cymru have ended up with the same number of seats that they won in 2005, as has the Social Democratic and Labour Party and, depending on the result in the final Northern Ireland seat, Sinn Fein may also achieve a consistent result.
Independents have lost their seats in Blaenau Gwent and Wyre Forest, while Sylvia Hermon, formerly a member of the Ulster Unionist Party, has retained her seat as a pro-Labour independent unionist. The Ulster Unionists, who dominated Northern Irish politics for most of the twentieth century, have been left with no seats for the first in their history. Green Party leader Caroline Lucas has made history by winning a seat for her party in the Commons for the first time, winning Brighton Pavilion in a close three-way race against the Conservatives and Labour. Results have not been declared in the key Respect seats of Bethnal Green & Bow, where George Galloway won in 2005, and Poplar & Limehouse, where he is running this time.
The overall seat results are reflected in the following table (which will be updated as the final seats are declared):
| Conservative | 305 | +97 |
| Labour | 258 | -91 |
| Liberal Democrat | 57 | -5 |
| Democratic Unionist | 8 | -1 |
| Scottish National Party | 6 | - |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | - |
| Plaid Cymru | 3 | +1 |
| Social Democratic and Labour Party | 3 | - |
| Alliance | 1 | +1 |
| Green Party | 1 | +1 |
| Ulster Conservative and Unionist | 0 | -1 |
| Independent | 1 | -1 |
In terms of popular vote, the Conservatives have clearly come out on top. Amongst the 613 seats which have declared, the Conservatives have polled 36.1%, which is a swing of almost 4% since 2005. The Labour vote is down over 6% to 29.2%. The Liberal Democrats have largely failed to gain the extra popular votes that have been universally indicated in recent polls, only polling 22.9%, just 1% higher than the 2005 result. Due to the fact that the Lib Dems had more marginal seats vulnerable to the Conservatives, the swing from Labour to the Tories saw the Lib Dems lose seats despite an increase in their vote.
The election result in Scotland was remarkably dull, compared to the rest of the UK. Every single seat was won by the same party as in 2005, with the exception of Glasgow North East, which was won by then-Speaker Michael Martin in 2005, and was won back by his former Labour party at a 2009 by-election. Labour even managed to win back two seats that had been lost to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP in by-elections over the last term. The Lib Dems have held ten seats, and are expected to retain their eleventh seat of Argyll & Bute after the votes there are counted. The SNP has managed to hold the six seats they won in 2005, but lost the seat of Glasgow East, which they had won in a 2008 by-election. The Conservatives, despite winning the largest number of seats in the UK, have only retained a single seat on the English border. In terms of popular vote, the Scottish Labour Party won over 40% of the vote, with the three other main parties winning between 16% and 20%.
There was more change in Wales, where the Conservatives gained more ground. Labour still maintained a majority of seats, falling from 30 to 26. Labour lost four seats to the Tories and one to Plaid Cymru, but regained the seat of Blaenau Gwent from independent Dai Davies. Blaenau Gwent is traditionally very strong for Labour, but was lost at the 2005 election after a battle of candidate selection. The Conservatives gained a fifth seat from the Liberal Democrats, gaining the relatively safe seat of Montgomeryshire from colourful MP Lembit Opik in a shock result. This gave the Tories a total of eight seats, and saw them overtake the Lib Dems as the second-biggest party in Wales. Plaid had won three seats in 2005, but the redistribution saw the boundaries in northwestern Wales dramatically redrawn and one of their seats was abolished, so their gain off Labour simply brings them back to their 2005 result. In terms of popular vote, Labour achieved their result with only 36% of the vote, with 26% for the Tories, 20% for the Lib Dems and 11% for Plaid.
The result in Northern Ireland was largely consistent, but with a few dramatic results. DUP leader, and Northern Ireland’s first minister, Peter Robinson, lost his seat of Belfast East with a 22% swing to Mayor of Belfast Naomi Long, the deputy leader of the Alliance Party. The Alliance are the only significant non-sectarian party in Northern Ireland, but despite contesting elections for almost 40 years have never before won a seat at Westminster. They have a loose alliance with the Liberal Democrats. In the neighbouring seat of North Down, sitting MP Sylvia Hermon was re-elected as an independent with the tacit support of the DUP. Hermon had been the sole remaining MP from the Ulster Unionist Party, but was considered sympathetic to Labour and left the party when they renewed their classic alliance with the Conservative Party. The alliance of the UUP and Conservatives failed to win a single seat in a country they dominated only a decade ago. The DUP held on to their eight remaining seats, and the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party held on to their three. Sinn Fein has retained four of their five seats and are still waiting on a result in Fermanagh & South Tyrone, where the DUP and UUP have supported a common candidate in independent unionist Rodney Connor. If Sinn Fein retain the seat it will be the first time that the unionist forces have failed to win a majority of seats in Northern Ireland, with the DUP and Hermon only holding nine seats out of eighteen.
I will be posting full result breakdowns for these three countries and the nine regions of England over the next few days once the final 35 seats have been declared, but for now I have posted some large maps showing the election results for different areas in 2005 and 2010, you’ll need to click them and enlarge them to full size to see the full detail in each map.
Result of the 2005 general election in London.
Result of the 2010 general election in London.
Result of the 2010 general election in Central Scotland.
Result of the 2005 general election in Northern Ireland.
Result of the 2010 general election in Northern Ireland.
Result of the 2005 general election in the South of England and Wales. Click to enlarge.
Result of the 2010 general election in the South of England and Wales. Click to enlarge
Result of the 2005 general election in the Midlands and Wales. Click to enlarge
Result of the 2010 general election in the Midlands and Wales. Click to enlarge
Result of the 2005 general election in the North of England. Click to enlarge
Result of the 2010 general election in the North of England. Click to enlarge
