Archive for July, 2009

Norwich North by-election

By
Ben Raue
 – July 15, 2009

There’s two interesting by-elections taking place in coming weeks, one in the UK in the House of Commons seat of Norwich North on 23 July, and the other in the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke on 1 August.

The Norwich North by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Ian Gibson, who resigned from Parliament in the aftermath of the recent expenses scandal, after the Labour Party prohibited him from running for re-election as a Labour candidate.

At the 2005 general election, the result was:

  • Labour – 44.9%
  • Conservative – 33.2%
  • Liberal Democrat – 16.2%
  • Green – 2.7%

Despite the low Green vote, Norwich is Green Party heartland, with a large contingent on Norwich City Council, and the party came first in Norwich in the recent European election. It should be noted, however, that the more Green parts of Norwich tend to be in the Norwich South Constituency, where the Greens polled much more in the 2005 election.

Labour and Conservative have both chosen young candidates, either of whom would be the youngest member of the House of Commons if elected. The Liberal Democrats have chosen April Pond, who polled 18% in North-West Norfolk in 2005. The Green Party has chosen Rupert Read, who is a local Norwich councillor and was the party’s lead candidate for the East of England at the recent

The only poll I have seen for the constituency gave the following figures:

  • CON 34%
  • LAB 30%
  • LD 15%
  • GRN 14%

I would expect that the Conservatives would win this seat, however, even after a large swing away from Labour, the gap is not very large. Most of the swing away from Labour appears to have flowed to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. It will also be interesting to see if the Greens  can come third in the race, which could put Read in a strong position to run seriously for Norwich South at the next general election. You would have to consider Norwich South to be one of a handful of seats the Greens will seriously target.

Tags:

Greens pick Adam Bandt for Melbourne

By
Ben Raue
 – July 14, 2009

In an unsurprising move, the Greens have chosen Adam Bandt as the candidate for the federal seat of Melbourne. Bandt is the Convenor of the Australian Greens, and was  candidate for Melbourne in 2007 and Lord Mayoral candidate in 2008. Bandt is a former partner at Slater and Gordon and specialist in industrial law, representing unions and workers in various cases.

Melbourne is the only Greens seat where the Greens came  second at the 2007 election, and it is held by Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner by 4.71%. It will be difficult for the Greens to win in 2010, but it is definitely possible and probably the Greens’ best prospect.

Tags: , ,

Japanese election called

By
Ben Raue
 – July 13, 2009

Japan’s Prime Minister, Taro Aso, has called an election which will likely bring the ruling Liberal Democratic Party government down. Yesterday’s local elections in Tokyo saw the defeat of the LDP, who have dominated the prefectural assembly since 1965. In the aftermath, Aso has called an election for the lower house of the national Parliament for August 30.

It is widely expected that the opposition Democratic Party, that already controls the upper house, to win the election. The LDP have held power since 1955 in Japan, with the exception of a short period in the early 1990s.

Tags:

Has anyone got a job?

By
Ben Raue
 – July 13, 2009

I know this is an unusual post, but I thought I need to give it a shot. I’m currently looking for work at the moment, which obviously is difficult in the current economy. If anyone who reads the blog knows of any jobs you think might be relevant to me, or even have work yourselves, let me know by emailing ben(at)tallyroom.com.au, thanks. Your regular transmission will return this afternoon.

Tags:

Mumble enters the WordPress age

By
Ben Raue
 – July 13, 2009

Psephologist Peter Brent of Mumble has completely revamped his website, replacing the basic rolling thread of commentary with a new WordPress blog. It’s always been hard to follow Mumble without an RSS feed or the ability to link to individual posts or comment, but he’s a great psephologist and probably one of the first psephobloggers in Australia. Go have a read.

Tags:

Yet another map: South Australia 2006

By
Ben Raue
 – July 10, 2009

I’ve added one more map tonight to my Google Earth maps collection. I have put together the map for the 2006 South Australian state election. This is the only map that currently applies to an Australian parliament that I hadn’t completed, and paves the way for more analysis of next March’s South Australian election. I previously made a map showing the 2010 boundaries which is available on the Maps page. You can download the 2006 map here.

Tags: ,

Latest version of UK map

By
Ben Raue
 – July 8, 2009

I have still been working on my map for the next United Kingdom general election in 2010. I have now finished six of the nine regions of England: South East, South West, Greater London, East, East Midlands and West Midlands. This adds up to 375 seats out of 533 in England and 650 across the entire UK. I’ve uploaded the latest version which you can download from the Maps page.

uk375

Tags: ,

Indonesians elect a president

By
Ben Raue
 – July 8, 2009

Indonesia is at the polls today to elect their president in the second direct election of their president. In 2004, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) defeated sitting President Megawati Sukarnoputri. This election sees three tickets running. Under Indonesian electoral law, candidates must have the support of parties with at least 20% of the seats in Indonesia’s parliament. This has limited the field to a small number of candidates.

April’s parliamentary election was a strong victory for SBY’s Democratic Party, winning over 20%, which made them the largest party in a deeply fractured party system. This allowed SBY to be nominated solely with the support of his party, but the Democratic Party has built a coalition of 314/560 seats to nominate SBY for President. The two largest opposition parties have also stitched together the numbers to nominate two candidates to oppose SBY.

The Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P) has nominated former President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Golkar, the party of former dictator Soeharto, has nominated sitting Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, while General Wiranto, who was Golkar’s 2004 presidential candidate, is running as Kalla’s running mate.

If a candidate gets over 50% today, then they win, otherwise there will be a runoff on September 8 between the top two candidates. All four recent polls I have seen put Yudhoyono in first place, and I have little doubt that Yudhoyono will come first in the race. Polls vary between those giving Yudhoyono a massive majority (67-70%) and giving him a slim plurality. Most polls also put Kalla ahead of Megawati, although this isn’t clearcut.

I tend to think Yudhoyono will fall short of winning a majority tonight, and he’ll be facing off against Kalla in a runoff. Both Kalla and Megawati have agreed to support each other in a runoff against SBY, although I tend to think Megawati will be a much weaker opponent than Kalla, considering that SBY polled over 60% in the 2004 runoff against her.

Update: While official results won’t be announced for a few weeks, exit polls suggest SBY has polled 60%, giving him a solid victory and averting the need for a runoff.

Tags:

Redrawing council borders in Sydney

By
Ben Raue
 – July 6, 2009

I’ve been thinking recently about the Local Government Areas in Sydney. With the exception of the City of Sydney, which has grown and contracted over time, and Canada Bay, which was formed by a merger of Drummoyne and Concord in 2000, local government in Sydney has remained largely intact since a massive round of mergers in 1948-49, which saw many of Sydney’s councils merged into larger units. Is it time to rethink local government in Sydney?

Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: ,

Victorian Greens choose candidate in Richmond

By
Ben Raue
 – July 5, 2009

The Victorian Greens on Friday announced their first candidate for a winnable seat for the November 2010 state election. The Greens will be running Kathleen Maltzahn for the inner Melbourne seat of Richmond at the state election.

Maltzahn is a former City of Yarra councillor from 2004 to 2008 and is currently the Executive Director of a local women’s health service.

In regards to the preselection, Maltzahn said that “people get climate change. They want the government to make real change. I’m running to help make that happen. We’re also seeing more and more Greens elected, including, with Adele Carle’s win in Fremantle, in lower house seats. Winning Richmond is a real possibility.”

Richmond is the second most marginal Labor/Greens seat in Victoria, behind the state seat of Melbourne. The seat mostly covers Maltzahn’s City of Yarra, with the exception of small parts at the northern end of Yarra LGA.

Richmond is held by ALP Minister for Housing, Local Government and Aboriginal Affairs Richard Wynne, who has held the seat since 1999. Richmond has been a safe Labor seat since 1908, with the exception of the 1955 election when the sitting Labor MP was re-elected for the DLP for one term.

The Greens first came close to winning in Richmond in 2002, when Gemma Pinnell polled 28.6% of the primary vote and produced a two-candidate-preferred result of 53.1% for the ALP over the Greens. In 2006, the Greens went backwards slightly on the two-candidate-preferred vote, with the ALP winning 53.6%. There were swings against both Greens and Labor on primary votes towards smaller parties, in particular local Socialist councillor Stephen Jolly, who polled 5.6%, which largely contributed to a 3.9% swing against the Greens, who ran then-Yarra councillor Gurm Sekhon, and 1.1% against Wynne.

Maltzahn’s preselection is another in the long line of preselections for potentially winnable seats that the Greens will be conducting over the next few months. Lee Rhiannon and Richard di Natale have already been preselected for the Senate next year, with similar preselections in Queensland, South Australia and the ACT expected soon. In addition, there will be preselections for one winnable seat in the South Australian Legislative Council and four winnable seats in the NSW Legislative Council. The Victorian Greens are currently preselecting lead candidates for all eight Legislative Council regions, all of which are winnable. And, of course, we’re still waiting on preselections for the state seats of Balmain, Marrickville, Melbourne, Brunswick and Northcote.

Update: Greg Barber and Colleen Hartland have both been preselected to run for second terms in North Metro and Western Metro respectively. Yarra Ranges Councillor Samantha Dunn is running for Eastern Victoria region. The other five regions are yet to be concluded.

Update 2: Colleen Hartland hasn’t actually been preselected yet, but she is the only candidate in Western Metro.

Tags: ,
« Older Entries
Newer Entries »