Archive for April, 2009

New electoral maps – Ireland

There is no election scheduled in the Republic of Ireland for the next three years, but there is a good chance that the economic crisis may force an early election, and I have completed a Google Earth electoral map of constituencies in the Dail Eireann, the lower house of the Irish legislature.

The Dail includes 43 constituencies electing 166 deputies or Teachtaí Dála (TDs), with each constituency electing 3-5 TDs.

This map includes both the boundaries used for the 2007 election and the new redistributed boundaries for the next election between 2009 and 2012. I have coloured the old boundaries blue and the new boundaries red, so you can see the differences (although most constituencies remain almost entirely the same). Google Earth allows you to also turn off different layers to see the map differently. I’ve also included labels for each 2009/12 constituency, which also include the number of TDs to be elected at the next election.

You can download it here.

Tags: ,

Indonesia goes to the polls

It’s hard to find solid information, but a number of polling companies have produced exit polls, and according to the Jakarta Post’s coverage of the exit polls, they all put Yudohoyono’s party leading with about 20%, with Megawati’s IDP-S coming second with around 15% and Golkar (the party of the late dictator Suharto) polling around 13%. In comparison, Golkar came first in 2004 with 21.6%, IDP-S second with 18.5% and Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party came fifth with 7.5%.

A new Morgan senate poll

Roy Morgan polling has come out with a new poll measuring voting intention for the Senate, broken down according to each state and the ACT.

The poll predicts 34-35 ALP senators, 30-31 Coalition senators, 8-10 Greens and 2 Xenophon. It was conducted during March for the three larger states, January-March for the three smaller states and over the last six months for the ACT, presumably in order to achieve a large enough sample to produce a meaningful result.

Past attempts at Senate polling have been rare and woefully inaccurate, however the picture this poll paints is similar to a lot of projections, in that it sees the Greens gaining seats and completely controlling the balance of power as the Coalition lose seats and Steven Fielding loses his seat.

Time itself is pro-gay marriage

In the aftermath of the Iowa Supreme Court ruling that same-sex marriage is protected under the state’s constitution, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has laid out how public opinion in the US is shifting steadily towards gay marriage, and he makes predictions about when each US state will have a pro-gay marriage majority:

Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we’d project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year.

All of the other variables that I looked at — race, education levels, party registration, etc. — either did not appear to matter at all, or became redundant once we accounted for religiosity. Nor does it appear to make a significant difference whether the ban affected marriage only, or both marriage and civil unions.

So what does this mean for Iowa? The state has roughly average levels of religiosity, including a fair number of white evangelicals, and the model predicts that if Iowans voted on a marriage ban today, it would pass with 56.0 percent of the vote. By 2012, however, the model projects a toss-up: 50.4 percent of Iowans voting to approve the ban, and 49.6 percent opposed. In 2013 and all subsequent years, the model thinks the marriage ban would fail.

Elsewhere, there’s more from Daily Kos and Polswatch.

World election news – April 7

We’ve got a bunch of global elections taking place over the next two months. I have posted an electoral calendar in the sidebar. These include elections in South Africa, India and Iceland, a parliamentary election in Indonesia, a referendum on Daylight Saving in Western Australia, and a state by-election for the seat of Fremantle in Western Australia. In order to cover the stories in all of these campaigns, I’m gonna start a regular post covering them all. I may go more indepth on each election.

  • Indonesia goes to the polls this Thursday to elect its national Parliament. Sitting president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party is leading in the polls on 27%, up from 7% at the 2004 election, which will make it easier for Yudhoyono to run on his own for President. Jakarta is three hours behind AEST, meaning that, if this story is correct, we should see most of the results come in on Thursday night. I’ll try and cover it on the night. The best story I have found to wrap up the state of the parties is this one in the Wall Street Journal.
  • Google has launched a fantastic website for the upcoming Indian election, including a brilliant Google Map (although I can’t find a way to download it into Google Earth). Have a play.
  • Fairfax’s WA Today has a great article from last week laying out the issues we have played out on the blog this week regarding the possible Liberal candidacy in the Fremantle by-election, as well as raising the issues Peter Tagliaferri may have in getting Labor preselection for the seat.
  • In South Africa, ANC party president and presidential candidate Jacob Zuma has dodged the latest criminal charges, with the National Prosecution Authority dropping charges against the embattled frontrunner just two weeks out from the election.
  • Less than three weeks out from Iceland’s parliamentary election, it’s worth looking at the polls. While one poll in January put the Left/Green Movement in first place, most polls since then have put the Social Democratic Alliance. Last week’s poll saw the SDA on 29.4%, Left Green on 27.2%, the right-wing Independence Party on 25.4% and the centrist Progressive Party on 10.7%.

Testing out the election-wiki

I have installed the WordPress Wiki plugin and set up a page that should be editable for all registered users.

If you go to the bottom of the right-hand column and register, you should be able to edit the the “test wiki” page.

So what can we use it for? Put your thoughts in below.

Tags:

McGinty resigns: Fremantle by-election is on

Thanks to Simon Copland in comments who has pointed out to us that former WA Attorney-General Jim McGinty has resigned as Member for Fremantle, triggering a by-election with the daylight savings referendum on May 16:

Mr McGinty’s decision, which follows months of speculation about his political future, allows a costly by-election to coincide with the May 16 referendum on daylight saving.

He said the timing of his resignation had been influenced by the referendum, though he acknowledged there could be criticism from within the party over his decision to leave at a time when the ALP needed his experience.

“It is really in everyone’s interest to get someone in who can benefit from the time in Opposition, rather than me simply staying there for the sake of it,” Mr McGinty said.

Fremantle is the best seat in WA state politics for the Greens, and the Greens have already endorsed Adele Carles, who ran in 2008 and was close to winning the seat, but failed to overtake the Liberals. I don’t expect the Liberals will run in the seat, making it easier for the Greens to win, while the ALP is likely to run Mayor of Fremantle Peter Tagliaferri.

There’s more over at Poll Bludger, who will also have a piece in Crikey’s daily email today.

Latham revisionism

Mark Latham has made another return to Australian political debate in the last few days, with an article from his former chief of staff being published in a scientific journal, arguing that Latham suffered from a “narcissistic and paranoid personality”:

In a article written for the International Journal of Applied Psychoanalytic Studies, Mike Richards – who lost his job during the 2004 federal election loss – analysed Mr Latham’s behaviour during his turbulent year as Labor leader, The Age newspaper reports.

Dr Richards, who wrote his doctorate on a narcissistic personality, says Mr Latham’s promising political career was spoiled by “tragic personality flaws”.

“Latham’s narcissistic and paranoid personality shaped a consistent pattern of political behaviour,” he wrote.

“The core features of that style are a distinctive political brilliance and drive that is accompanied by paranoia and destructive tendencies – anger, rage, envy and resentment – which suggest an inner dynamic involving overweening ambition defending against (that is, compensating for) low self-esteem.”

Of course, a lot of that makes sense. But you also have to question, how many politicians fit into these criteria? I would consider narcissism, paranoia and a lot of the other symptoms described to be typical of most successful politicians.

The treatment of Mark Latham and his legacy ever since 2005 has been one of the most stunning cases of political and media doublethink in recent political history. Someone who doesn’t remember the 2004 campaign could reasonably believe 2004 was this crazy year when the entire ALP caucus went collectively insane and selected a lunatic as leader, who ran around the country tearing the place apart before receiving his rightful bollocking, at which point the ALP caucus woke up and became nice and sensible again.

Both major parties and much of the mainstream political media has conveniently spent the last four years rubbing out the history of the 2004 election. The assumption is that Howard’s victory over Latham was always inevitable.

Yet it needs to be pointed out that, for much of 2004, Latham’s polling numbers were stratospheric, before falling back down to earth in the second half of the year. Even on election day, when the result was probably certain, my memory is that, while Howard was favoured, people I spoke to weren’t as certain that Howard would win as, say, people were certain that Rudd would win in 2007.

The political journalist class has largely found it convenient to run with the “crazy Latham” meme as an antidote to their embarassing fawning over Latham during the 2004 campaign. It probably didn’t hurt that Latham didn’t pull any punches regarding the media in his 2005 diaries, giving them little motivation to treat his arguments and legacy fairly and much motivation to discredit his diaries and the opinions within. Usually such strident criticism of the political establishment by a former federal leader of a major party would be considered a key political document. Instead most who haven’t read the book would consider The Latham Diaries to be a crazy rant with little value.

The Liberal Party found value in painting Latham as a dangerous lunatic, as they could then bash the ALP for the misjudgement in electing him as leader and following his lead for an election campaign.

For the ALP, they also had strong reasons to paint the Latham experiment as a temporary bout of insanity. For the ALP political establishment that never really got onboard with Latham’s personality style (even though his actual policies were never particularly radical), it became easy during the 2005-2007 period to paint the 2004 election defeat as solely due to Latham’s role. Get rid of Latham, get rid of the problem. This avoided having to deal with the deeper structural issues. More importantly, the ALP was desperate to discredit the author of the most insightful critique of modern ALP culture, someone who has some of the best credentials to make such a critique.

Of course, Latham’s personal style probably never made it easy, and another leader may have done better. Yet you can’t ignore that, for a number of months in 2004, Latham was one of the most popular Opposition Leaders in recent years. Indeed, Mark Latham’s appeal and difficulties stemmed from the same source: he was a true outsider. He was never popular with the ALP political establishment, and his political outlook, despite fitting in perfectly with the ALP’s neoliberal economic agenda, challenged the way politics is done. The ALP first experimented with a radical choice with Latham in 2004, before succeeding with a conservative choice with Rudd in 2007. In contrast, the US Democrats went the other way, failing to elect a conservative choice in John Kerry in 2004, before succeeding in 2008 after taking a gamble on Barack Obama.

This is the real lesson of Mark Latham’s leadership. His leadership wasn’t a momentary bout of insanity, it was a gamble. It didn’t pay off, but that doesn’t mean it was always bound to fail. And if Latham had succeeded, Australian politics today would be very different, and much more interesting.

Update: Mike Richards’ article has been published online by Crikey, and you can read it here. It’s actually fascinating and well worth reading. Although I still wonder whether all the revelations about Latham’s narcissistic behaviour are any worse than the sort of stuff that could’ve come out about leaders like Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd.

India’s redistribution

I haven’t managed to get my head around the consequences of India’s electoral “delimitation” process, which saw most of the country’s electorate boundaries redrawn for the first time in 33 years, but this article from the BBC gives a good overview of the consequences:

In a deeply fractured society divided along caste, religious, tribal and identity lines, redrawing the constituencies has, in the words of political scientist Yogendra Yadav, “wiped out their histories” and altered the political representation of social groups.

“It is a political earthquake of sorts. The newly drawn constituencies are starting from scratch,” he says.

This, in turn, is posing fresh challenges to political party managers in choosing candidates to contest the altered constituencies. The candidates themselves are concerned about the changing character of the constituencies.

[...]

Analysts suggest that with the increase of urban constituencies, the Hindu nationalist BJP is likely to have an edge because the party has done traditionally well in urban areas.

But, as Yogendra Yadav says, delimitation will not radically influence the overall result.

“The strengths and weaknesses of the candidates in the newly redrawn constituencies cancel each other out, and no party gains drastically overall,” he says.

Tags:

John-Paul who?

Following Lawrence Springborg’s election-night resignation has resulted in the election of largely-unknown Gold Coast MP John-Paul Langbroek as leader of the Queensland LNP. Langbroek defeated former National Fiona Simpson and former Liberal Tim Nicholls. Lawrence Springborg has been elected as the party’s deputy leader. Langbroek is the first Liberal to lead the conservative side of politics in Queensland since, like, forever.

GOLD Coast MP and former dentist John-Paul Langbroek has been elected leader of Queensland’s Liberal National Party.

Former leader Lawrence Springborg was elected deputy leader at a meeting of the LNP’s 33 MPs in Brisbane.

Mr Langbroek and Mr Springborg are expected to front the media this afternoon.

Mr Langbroek, 48, defeated Brisbane MP Tim Nicholls and Sunshine Coast MP Fiona Simpson for the top job.

The Dutch-born MP and father of three was first elected to the seat of Surfers Paradise in 2004.

The former Liberal MP has been leader of opposition business since September last year and held a number of shadow portfolios including education, health and housing.

Tags: