Archive for February, 2009

Israeli electoral reform?

By
Ben Raue
 – February 13, 2009

Israel is one of the only countries in the world where its entire legislature is elected to represent the country as a whole, and it is often blamed for Israel’s unstable and rapidly-changing party system. It is true that Israel’s pure form of proportional representation contributes to instability in Israeli politics, although the dragging on of the Arab-Israeli conflict and Israel’s unique ethnic diversity and geopolitical position in the Middle East suggest that no electoral system would shift towards a stable two-party system any time soon.

In response to this week’s election results, there have been numerous calls for electoral reform in Israel, incuding from Tzipi Livni and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman.

The ABC quotes former Labour MK Professor Shimon Shitreet proposing a possible model:

Professor Shitreet and others are proposing a change they think the smaller parties will accept, where half of the members would be elected by district and half would remain under the proportional system.

This model is used in Japan, South Korea, and most interestingly elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, the body that became dominated by Hamas at the 2006 election.

Another possible model would be the MMP system used in New Zealand and Germany. Using New Zealand’s system, all parties except the five largest would be wiped out, making it easier to form a government. However, it is likely that at least some Arab parties would win constituencies in the north. The district around Acre would have four districts out of sixty, and has a substantial Arab population. This would allow Arab voters to keep representation in Parliament.

The biggest obstacle is that any electoral reform would almost certainly result in a higher electoral threshold, even if that comes about through indirect means, such as electing MKs through multi-member constituencies. While the five largest parties, as well as the Arab parties collectively, would still win seats under most mixed systems, the smaller parties would likely be wiped out or forced to merge with each other or with a major party. Most scenarios for forming a new government include some of those parties in a new governing coalition, and in spite of their small numbers they would likely veto any potential electoral reform. However, a potential alliance of Likud, Kadima and Yisrael Beiteinu would provide a majority government of large parties that could introduce serious electoral reform.

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Early election possibilities

By
Ben Raue
 – February 12, 2009

After Nick Xenophon voted against the government’s stimulus package this afternoon, I’ve heard at least one journalist claim that, if the bill is blocked again tomorrow the government will have its first double dissolution trigger. Sadly for all of us election junkies, that isn’t strictly true, as three months must pass between the first time the Senate blocks a bill before a second blocking results in that bill becoming a trigger.

Antony Green has written another blog post laying out the early election possibilities. One interesting factor is the consequences of a double dissolution in the first half of 2009:

After a DD, Senate terms are backdated until the previous 1 July. So a DD before 30 June this year would see Senate terms backdated to 1 July 2008, when Senators currently took there seats. So a DD before 30 June this year would still require another Senate election by May 2011. Any DD held in the first half of this year would still guarantee an election in late 2010  or early 2011.

So, assuming that Kevin Rudd’s primary motivation for calling an early election is to avoid the worst consequences of the economic crisis in 2010, he’d want to wait until late 2009, which would allow a re-elected Rudd government to avoid facing the voters again until late 2012.

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Blog post of the week

By
Ben Raue
 – February 11, 2009

I know, I know, I don’t actually do “blog post of the week”, but a post today from Possum at Pollytics is the funniest I’ve read in a while:

The Qld Liberal/National Party recently released an economic document which you can see over here (the pdf download link is a big button on the right of that page).

It’s your usual political document – a big bag of clichés surrounded by pics of working people in hardhats and families with children (!!)

But nestled in the document toward the end is a single chart, although that’s probably a bit of a grievous overstatement. It isn’t so much a “chart” in as much as it’s a data representation so grotesque that one has to consciously fight off the urge to gouge out ones eyeballs with a teaspoon.

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The right prevails in Israel

By
Ben Raue
 – February 11, 2009

There’s a lot of stories touting a supposed narrow victory for Tzipi Livni’s Kadima in today’s Israeli election, but this reflects a first-past-the-post mentality with little value in Israel’s ultra-multi-party system. Rather than Livni coming out on top, it seems very likely that Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government.

So here are the numbers at the moment. With 99% counted:

  • Kadima – 28
  • Likud – 27
  • Yisrael Beiteinu – 14
  • Labor – 13
  • Shas – 11
  • United Torah Judaism – 5
  • United Arab List – 5
  • National Union – 4
  • Hadash – 4
  • Meretz – 3
  • Jewish Home – 3
  • Balad – 3

In other words, Kadima 28, Likud 27, Beiteinu 14, Labor 13, Shas 11, other right-wing 12, Arab parties 12.

It’s also worth remembering that despite Kadima and Livni being portrayed as the centre-left party in this election, the party includes large elements of former Likud members. Indeed, the only parties solidly of the left (apart from the Arab parties) are Labor and Meretz, both of whom have been devestated.

Of course, there’s quite a lot of options. The most obvious is Likud-Beiteinu-Shas, which adds up to 52, and with smaller nationalist parties produces a majority. On the other hand, Kadima and Labor fall well short, although could get over the line with Beiteinu and Shas, although it’s hard to see Beiteinu working with Labor over Likud.

Alternatively a government including both Kadima and Likud could easily find the extra six seats needed for a majority, and could lock the ultra-nationalist Beiteinu out of power. In other words, there are many options, but ultimately most of them see Netanyahu in power, and any possible Kadima-led government would likely see a lurch to the right and would be much less stable than a Likud-led government.

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Israelis come out and vote

By
Ben Raue
 – February 10, 2009

So Israelis are now voting for their new Knesset. Polls close at 7am AEDT, and I hope to post an early results update at 9am followed by more detailed results at lunchtime. It appears that the gap between Netanyahu’s Likud and Livni’s Kadima has narrowed in recent days, although Netanyahu remains the clear favourite, with the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu remaining slightly ahead of Labor in all polls. Of course, polls on average only give Netanyahu 23% of the vote, suggesting that even a solid lead for Likud will still result in a lengthy wait before a new government is formed with minor parties.

Update: three different exit polls conducted by three Israeli TV stations all tell the same story: Kadima coming out on top with 29-30 seats, followed by Likud on 27-28, with Yisrael Beiteinu slightly ahead of Labor. However, if you group Likud and YB as against Kadima and Labor, the two blocs are about neck-and-neck. This is too close to call. Haaretz is providing live election results. With 10% counted, the two major parties are in a dead heat, 22% Kadima versus 21% Likud.

Update 2: With 43% of the vote counted, the results are reflecting the exit polls. Kadima 28, Likud 27, YB 16, Labor 12, Shas 11. It would be interesting if Shas defeat Labor, they were predicted to lose ground from 12 to 9 but look like they could hold all of their seats.

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UK Parliament boundaries

By
Ben Raue
 – February 9, 2009

So the UK will see a general election either this year or next year, and the election will see a new set of boundaries being used in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, while Scotland last had a redistribution before the 2005 election. I’ve started drawing the electoral boundaries in Google Earth. It’s a big task, so I thought I’d upload what I’ve done so far. I’ve completed two regions of England, being Greater London and the South East. Collectively these regions elect 157 MPs, just under a quarter of the House. You can access it here.

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WA federal boundaries finalised

By
Ben Raue
 – February 8, 2009

100th post!

The Australian Electoral Commission has finalised the new electoral boundaries for the next federal election. You can download the Google Earth map here. The map includes the 2007 boundaries as well as the new boundaries. We have also seen a redistribution in the Northern Territory, which saw literally no changes in boundaries, and Tasmania’s final boundaries will be released in eight days time. We will also see new boundaries in New South Wales and Queensland later in the year to accomodate the transfer of one seat from NSW to Queensland. Once those are concluded I will produce a new national electoral map for 2010.

I’ll leave the explanation of the WA changes to Antony Green at his blog:

The draft boundaries saw only minor adjustments to 13 of the state’s 15 electorates. However, the Redistribution Commissioners made a major re-alignment to the boundaries of the existing electorates of Kalgoorlie and O’Connor. The old O’Connor covered the state’s agricultural regions, surrounded Perth and the state’s south-west, and stretched from Geraldton in the north to Albany in the south. The old Kalgoorlie was Australia’s largest electorate and covered the state’s mining and pastoral districts, extending from the Kimberley and Pilbara in the north to Kalgoorlie and Esperance in the south.

The draft boundaries re-arranged these two seats, creating two electorates that split the state north and south. One electorate covered the agricultural regions north of Perth and the state’s northern mining districts. The second covered the southern agricultural districts as well as Kalgoorlie and the southern mining district. On the draft boundaries, the northern electorate was named O’Connor and the southern electorate Kalgoorlie.

The final boundaries have changed these names. Given that more O’Connor voters ended up in the proposed Kalgoorlie, the southern electorate has been re-named O’Connor. This is also appropriate historically, as C.Y.O’Connor was the engineer responsible for the pipeline that supplies water to the city of Kalgoorlie.

A new name was required for the northern electorate. Durack has been adopted, commemorating one of Western Australia’s pioneering families whose descendants are still involved in the public life of the state.

The new boundaries mean that the number of Labor seats increases from four to a notional five, while the Liberal numbers fall from ten to a notional nine. This has come about due to inner city Swan switching from being a very marginal Liberal seat with a margin of 0.1% to being a very marginal Labor seat with a notioanl margin of 0.6%.

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India and Indonesia update

By
Ben Raue
 – February 7, 2009

In today’s Sydney Morning Herald, the surprisingly-large “upcoming elections in large Asian countries whose name begins with an I” has a couple of articles of interest for election junkies.

In Indonesia, the Herald has reported that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is staring down a shadowy electoral challenge from army officers:

Displaying his famed Javanese circumlocution, Dr Yudhoyono called in senior military and police officers to the State Palace last week and, in the presence of the media, revealed his concern about a rumoured “ABS” campaign.

“ABS,” he said, stood for “Anyone But S”. Who “S” was, Dr Yudhoyono would not say, although it seems a clear reference to his own campaign for re-election. Moreover, he looked the officers in the eye and, as the TV cameras rolled, said he did not believe the rumour, before giving them a stern lecture about the importance of political neutrality during this coming legislative and presidential polls.

Indonesian democracy is still barely a decade old, and this year will be only the second ever direct presidential election, which means there is little in the way of strong party structures and political traditions in the country, and it’s not yet clear whether Yudhoyono’s current dominance is a sign of his likely re-election, or just the fact that the campaign is yet to commence. It seems bizarre that a national presidential campaign could be conducted in the next six months when no-one is yet to discover the name of the possible candidate.

Meanwhile, in India, the Herald has focused on the ill-health of Congress leader and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Dr Singh has been hospitalised for the past two weeks.

The Congress party-led governing coalition insists that Dr Singh is making a rapid recovery and that he will return to work soon. However, he is unlikely to figure much in the election campaign already gathering momentum.

Instead, Congress will rely heavily on its president, Sonia Gandhi, and her son, Rahul, to spearhead the Government’s re-election effort.

“Congress depends very heavily on Sonia and Rahul Gandhi,” said Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. “They are the only ones they have with a genuine nationwide appeal.”

Rahul’s father, Rajiv Gandhi, grandmother Indira Gandhi and great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru were all prime ministers. Dr Singh’s sudden withdrawal from the political fray at such a crucial time has triggered speculation that Rahul, the heir to this great political dynasty, may be installed as prime minister if Congress defies the odds and does well at the polls.

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Baseless early election speculation

By
Ben Raue
 – February 6, 2009

Former Liberal leader John Hewson penned a piece in today’s Crikey speculating at the possibility of an early federal election later this year. He points out, reasonably enough, that the economic crisis will likely hit harder in 2010 and that the Emissions Trading Scheme will allow many scaremongering opportunities for polluters.

The one thing Hewson misses is explaining the possible triggers that could call an election. A fascinating possibility would be an election triggered by the failure of the Senate to pass the stimulus package, which would only require one crossbench senator to join Turnbull’s Liberals on the ‘no’ side. Rather than the Rudd government being hit by the consequences of the crisis, they can go to the polls attacking the Liberals for obstructing Rudd’s response to the crisis.

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Lee Rhiannon to contest Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – February 5, 2009

Being a Greens member, I’m gonna refrain from commenting on this story, so I’ll just quote from this AAP story:

Greens MP Lee Rhiannon has told her party she will stand down from the NSW upper house ahead of the next federal election in a bid for a Senate spot.

Ms Rhiannon won her seat in the legislative council at the 1999 state election and has led a number of campaigns, most recently calling for political donation reform.

Her current term in the NSW upper house doesn’t expire until 2015.

“When our party opens up preselection (for the Senate) I will put forward my name, but that hasn’t been finalised,” Ms Rhiannon told AAP on Thursday.

“Irrespective of that, so that the party has certainty, I’ve said that I will resign when a federal election will be called.

The Greens will be choosing their 2010 Senate team in the first half of 2009. Clearly it will be interesting to see a new Greens MLC elected to fill the remainder of Lee’s term when she steps down at the time of the next federal election.

Update: the Sydney Morning Herald has injected the story with some baseless speculation about Lee replacing Bob Brown as the Greens leader, clearly written by someone who doesn’t know much about the internal dynamics of the Australian Greens, although a potential Senator Rhiannon would immediately overtake Senators Siewert, Ludlam and Hanson-Young in terms of parliamentary experience.

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