Cottesloe by-election, 2018

March 17, 2018

Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal MP and former premier Colin Barnett retired in January 2018.

MarginLIB 13.3%

Geography
Inner north of Perth. The seat of Cottesloe covers the southern end of the western suburbs, including Cottesloe, Claremont, Mosman Park, North Fremantle, Mount Claremont and Bold Park.

History
Cottesloe has existed since 1950, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party’s Ross Hutchinson won Cottesloe in 1950 after a successful football career. He held Cottesloe until his retirement in 1977, served as a minister from 1959 until 1971, and was Speaker from 1974 until 1977.

Bill Hassell, also of the Liberal Party, won the seat in 1977, and held it until 1990. Hassell was leader of the opposition from 1984 until 1986.

Liberal candidate Colin Barnett won Cottesloe in a 1990 by-election, and moved immediately to the frontbench. Barnett became deputy leader of the Liberal Party in 1992, and became a minister when the Liberal Party won government in 1993.

Barnett served as a minister for the entirety of the government, and Barnett took over the Liberal leadership shortly after the government lost power in 2001.

Barnett led the Liberal Party for the next term, and stepped down from the leadership after losing the 2005 election. Barnett announced a plan to retire from politics in late 2007, but suddenly became the party leader in August 2008 following the resignation of Troy Buswell. Barnett led the party into the September 2008 election, which was successful. Barnett became premier of a new Liberal-National government.

Barnett’s government won a second term at the 2013 election, but was defeated at the 2017 election. Barnett retired in early 2018.

Candidates
No information. The ALP is not running.

Assessment
The Liberal Party will likely retain this seat with ease. This is a relatively strong seat for the Greens, but even if the Greens gain most of the votes previously recorded for the absent Labor Party, they will likely fall well short of winning.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Colin Barnett Liberal 13,26456.7-8.1
Caitlin Collins Labor 5,28022.6+10.4
Greg Boland Greens 2,82612.1+1.8
Alida LanceeIndependent1,3325.7+5.7
Riann GroenewaldAustralian Christians2261.0-0.3
Nicole PoppasMicro Business1980.8+0.8
Michael Watson1760.8+0.8
Dmitry MalovIndependent1030.4+0.4
Informal8193.4

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Colin Barnett Liberal 14,79963.3-7.8
Caitlin Collins Labor 8,59036.7+7.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 56% in the south to 66% in the centre and north.

The Labor Party won only one booth: North Fremantle Primary School, at the southern end of the seat.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 11.1% in the north to 12.6% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North11.165.96,72428.7
Central11.366.45,86225.0
South12.655.84,08717.5
Other votes14.461.44,09417.5
Pre-poll11.864.62,63811.3

Election results in Cottesloe at the 2017 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.