Comments for The Tally Room http://www.tallyroom.com.au Elections and politics in Australia and around the world. Mon, 23 Jul 2018 02:20:19 +0000 hourly 1 Comment on Senate – Victoria – Australia 2019 by Bennee http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2019/vicsen2019/comment-page-1#comment-721586 Mon, 23 Jul 2018 02:20:19 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=34107#comment-721586 David Cutherbertson I reckon that assumption is based on memories from the old senate preference system where when either the 3rd Labor candidate or 1st Greens candidate excludes their preferences extremely strongly went to the one that survived, while other candidates in the mix at those late counts tended to be on the right and flowing extremely strongly NOT to Labor or the Greens.

Perhaps in the new system with preferences flows nowhere near as strong the 3rd Labor and 1st Green candidate have pathways to getting over the line without relying on each-others preferences. I certainly hope so!

In Victoria’s case the Labor party would have to increase their primary vote by a decent amount

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Comment on Braddon by-election, 2018 by Bennee http://www.tallyroom.com.au/fedby2018/braddonby2018/comment-page-1#comment-721585 Mon, 23 Jul 2018 02:07:23 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33299#comment-721585 If he can get into double digits Craig Garland is a shoe-in in the next state election (if he wants it). Massive mistake by the Liberals to attack him so directly making him a household name.

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Comment on Lingiari – Australia 2019 by John http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2019/lingiari2019/comment-page-1#comment-721574 Sun, 22 Jul 2018 13:13:32 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33566#comment-721574 Turnbull visited Tennant Creek with Jacinta Price today in what seemed very much like an election whistle stop.

They must be taking a serious run at this seat. Remembering that they will need to pick up new seats to retain government, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals are scoping out the 2 NT seats as possibilities now that Giles is out of the picture.

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Comment on Longman by-election, 2018 by Andrew Jackson http://www.tallyroom.com.au/fedby2018/longmanby2018/comment-page-3#comment-721573 Sun, 22 Jul 2018 12:06:06 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33288#comment-721573 Daniel I hope you are right about Ashby-Hanson Party vote. However my gut feeling is that it is more like 20%. It is very apparent on pre polls that a sizeable chunk of Of half wits are backing the Ashby Hansen party . One consolation is that even a bad poll should be better than gut feeling. Polls work off response to questions and answers are not always truthful. Do polls reflect the way people vote or do they just reflect the way people would like to think that they vote. Therefore will the polls under estimate the Ashby Hanson vote . My feeling is that any one with a slither of grey matter will be partially ashamed they support PHON and will therefore lead to results that underestimate PHON vote. Greens probably have this same problem when outside of their home turf.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson2@bigpond.com

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Comment on Braddon by-election, 2018 by Polly http://www.tallyroom.com.au/fedby2018/braddonby2018/comment-page-1#comment-721572 Sun, 22 Jul 2018 11:29:56 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33299#comment-721572 Garland has been preferenced second to last by the liberals. That, combined with his localized support in the nw at the state election suggests he wont win.

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Comment on Perth by-election, 2018 by Malcolm http://www.tallyroom.com.au/fedby2018/perthby2018/comment-page-2#comment-721570 Sun, 22 Jul 2018 09:54:15 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33358#comment-721570 Likely that Labor will win in Perth but also agree that it’s not as certain as some may think. Patrick Gorman doesn’t seem to be a particularly good candidate and this seat isn’t as solid a Labor seat as it looks. With no Liberal candidate would not be surprised to see the Greens win here if they garner enough preferences from conservative leaning independents.

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Comment on Wagga Wagga by-election, 2018 by Dave http://www.tallyroom.com.au/waggawaggaby2018/comment-page-1#comment-721569 Sun, 22 Jul 2018 08:50:34 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33927#comment-721569 Wagga City councillor Dan Hayes will again be the Labor candidate.
https://www.dailyadvertiser.com.au/news/local-news/5530322/wagga-labor-election-candidate-announced-as-sitting-mp-fights-to-stay/

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Comment on Longman by-election, 2018 by Daniel http://www.tallyroom.com.au/fedby2018/longmanby2018/comment-page-3#comment-721566 Sun, 22 Jul 2018 04:59:06 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33288#comment-721566 Just to note Opinion polls are not always accurate, ReachTel tends to favour the coalition more often than not in their Polling, Galaxy and Essential are more reliable, But they have not polled this by election, I see labour hold by a very slim margin, I don’t believe the One nation voters will preference the coalition overwhelmingly, Remember they did the opposite in the state election and last election here, Voters don’t always look at the How-To-Vote cards, and remember in the state election when they said One nation will get a balance of power and at least 20% of the vote, It was overestimated, I think One nation will only get 10% of the primary vote not 15% Green preferences will almost all go to labour, One nation also does not like the Turnbull government at all, If big Trev does manage to pull off an upset, Hes prob gonna be out next year at the next fed election and Labour will win it back,

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Comment on Senate – Victoria – Australia 2019 by John http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2019/vicsen2019/comment-page-1#comment-721562 Sat, 21 Jul 2018 18:40:42 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=34107#comment-721562 It’s not an accurate assumption that Greens would win their seat at the expense of Labor. The Greens can win seats at the expense of conservatives in close counts (the one that comes to mind is the final seat in Tasmania being a handful of votes between One Nation and the Greens).

However Labor do not want the Greens to grow into a serious political force, as they have a lot to lose by not being the only party of “the left”. They also have a lot to lose by relying on them to pass legislation, as you rightly point out that many Labor voters aren’t motivated by progressive values and would second guess the party if it was closely associated with the Greens.

It’s this, and the psychological phenomenon of “loss aversion”, that sees Labor campaign extremely hard against the Greens in their marginal seats. The spend in Northcote was 5x what Vic Labor typically spends in a marginal Liberal vs Labor seat.

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Comment on Braddon by-election, 2018 by L96 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/fedby2018/braddonby2018/comment-page-1#comment-721561 Sat, 21 Jul 2018 17:57:22 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33299#comment-721561 I must admit I haven’t heard much about Craig Garland until the last few comments, that being said Braddon out of most of the seats in the nation seem to have a real regional parochial bent which seems to favour unusual candidates eg Lambie.
With a strong result at the state election and alot more media coverage he could play a serious role in this byelection.
I still expect Labor to scrape through via his preferences but I wouldn’t rule him out completely for the win.

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