Comments for The Tally Room http://www.tallyroom.com.au Mon, 25 Mar 2019 05:21:51 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.10 Comment on NSW 2019 – the impact of minor parties on Labor and the Greens by AlexJ http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38059/comment-page-1#comment-732863 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 05:21:51 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=38059#comment-732863 When analysing the impact of AJP/SAP/KSO on the Greens we’re somewhat hamstrung without the preference distribution having been done yet. (Definitely for KSO, less so for AJP and SAP with historical data.)

Just as the relevant figure for Labor is now the 2PP as much as it is their primary, so the relevant figure for the Greens is often now the 3PP.

]]>
Comment on Herbert – Australia 2019 by Andrew Jackson http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2019/herbert2019/comment-page-2#comment-732862 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 05:08:08 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33284#comment-732862 NSW election makes my comment of March 9 all the more valid. If NSW has a problem with an independent National Party and the election showed up a big problem. Queensland’s equivalent will be much greater. Country Queensland is suffering as much as Country NSW and in NSW rural voters could mistakenly park their vote with Nat’s but only the most delusional country voter can think that the party of Campbell Newman is anything other than the Parliamentary Arm of Brisbane City Council. Even those of us who Townsville voters think live in Brisbane but who in reality live on Brisbane’s outskirts are aware that the current ALP Government and LNP alternative view inner city residents who want to live adjacent to brothels, strip clubs, bridges, are the dominant influence on major parties. We know that these King’s in reinforced concrete are in charge.

A recognition that this is the case could result in a serious increase in Radeck’s vote.

There is great similarity between Bob Katter’s policies and Shooters Farmers and Fishers and neither of them can be regarded as Right Wing by anyone other than a Left Wing extremist. On most things they stand between the socialism of ALP and market worship of the Liberals. At the same time they support a responsible environmental policy putting mankind ahead of nature worship. They reject the hatred espoused by fascist leaning groups.

]]>
Comment on NSW 2019 – close race analysis by Hawkeye http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38056/comment-page-1#comment-732861 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 05:00:20 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=38056#comment-732861 Antony Green has just called Dubbo for the Nats, which has delievered Seat Number 47 for the Coalition.

1 Seat left in Doubt, being East Hills

]]>
Comment on Kiama – NSW 2019 by WEGOTITDONE http://www.tallyroom.com.au/nsw2019/kiama2019/comment-page-1#comment-732859 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 04:48:49 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33894#comment-732859 Well, I wonder why the margin increased?!? … 12.2% (+3.5% … Possibly More) … Oatley & Kiama got great swings; Illustrates that a hard working local member can really change the landscape the electorate. Liberals also won all the booths in Albion Park for the first time. A HUGE ACHIEVEMENT. #letsgetitdonensw

]]>
Comment on East Hills – NSW 2019 by mick Quinlivan http://www.tallyroom.com.au/nsw2019/easthills2019/comment-page-3#comment-732857 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 04:34:13 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33192#comment-732857 yes agree with grady
but the hospital promise is pie in the sky…… no location and no guarantee it will be publicly owned
if ppp……………. then Northern Beaches is a good example

]]>
Comment on NSW 2019 – the impact of minor parties on Labor and the Greens by Adrian Jackson http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38059/comment-page-1#comment-732855 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 04:13:01 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=38059#comment-732855 Well it looks like the opinion polls, with a 50/50 split between Liberal and Labor, got it wrong again but they can only predict a result on what the public they surveyed tell them. So the survey methodology is not up to speed or the public are answering the question untruthfully.

As far as the NSW Premier is concerned a leader who is classy, competent, consistent, compassionate and dignified should be a sure winner. Many women in parliaments around Australia are better than we men too.

Well don’t on all your hard work Ben – a $50 donation placed into your bank account.

]]>
Comment on East Hills – NSW 2019 by Grady Seasons http://www.tallyroom.com.au/nsw2019/easthills2019/comment-page-2#comment-732852 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 03:53:06 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33192#comment-732852 It might be worthwhile holding off on any post mortems / reviews / analysis for a little while yet. The two booths yet to register any votes on the Virtual Tally Room site, Bankstown West Public School and Padstow Park Public School, both voted majority ALP in 2015. Murphy’s campaign still has a pulse.

]]>
Comment on NSW 2019 – the impact of minor parties on Labor and the Greens by Ben Raue http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38059/comment-page-1#comment-732851 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 03:39:51 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=38059#comment-732851 Eva, obviously there is that theory, and it could be a reason why people voted for those minor parties, but it would be strange for that to have a big impact in neighbouring seats and not in the Greens electorates.

]]>
Comment on East Hills – NSW 2019 by Tm http://www.tallyroom.com.au/nsw2019/easthills2019/comment-page-2#comment-732850 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 03:39:04 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?page_id=33192#comment-732850 Daley. As much as people liked Murphy, they couldn’t get their head around Daley leading the state. He was a disaster in the debate not remembering the figures that he should have known backwards. what a dope. oh well i guess we get a new hospital

]]>
Comment on NSW 2019 – the impact of minor parties on Labor and the Greens by Nick C http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38059/comment-page-1#comment-732848 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 03:11:22 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=38059#comment-732848 In some ways there’s not really a point to be made here beyond the analytical consideration of where votes change. We have compulsory voting, so the same electorate at each election has to choose from one of the candidates on offer or informal. So a new or emerging party is always going to win votes at the expense of another party. There’s a tendency to frame this as somehow these parties are doing something wrong or bad – that’s not really the point except from the narrow perspective of Greens partisans who don’t want competition. But it is very interesting from this analytical perspective, which I think you made the point Ben in an earlier post about how it represents a challenge for the Greens in maintaining support from quite different components of the electorate that have tended to vote for them. Here we have 3 parties that have a stronger appeal to different voting blocs, many of whom may have otherwise voted Greens in the absence of this extra option.

I don’t think it’s easy for the Greens to try and compete with all of these parties either, as trying to reposition to be more appealing than one of these parties with their voting bloc would mean alienating another part of their membership and supporter base. It might just be a reality the Greens will have to learn to cope with.

Another significant thing with the Greens vote is that there’s no sign they lost votes to Labor, which is something I and others were expecting given the Greens internal problems, some local councillors joining Labor, and a number of ex-Greens activists openly backing Labor, as well as Labor seemingly making a strategic pitch for perhaps loosening Greens support with a stronger set of environmental policies. It may be that the Daley video hurt them with this, and perhaps also that Labor kept pushing their focus on stadiums and didn’t really pursue the environment as much as they perhaps could have.

]]>