Walter Taylor – Brisbane 2020

Council margin – LNP 15.9% vs GRN
Mayoral margin – LNP 17.0%

Incumbent councillor
James Mackay, since 2019. James Mackay replaced Julian Simmonds as councillor for Walter Taylor in April 2019.

Geography
Western Brisbane. Walter Taylor covers suburbs on the northern shore of the Brisbane River to the west of the Brisbane city centre, including Indooroopilly, Toowong, St Lucia, Fig Tree Pocket and Taringa.

Redistribution
Walter Taylor lost part of Chapel Hill to Pullenvale and gained the remainder of Toowong from Paddington. These changes cut the LNP margin from 16.5% to 15.9%.

History
Walter Taylor ward is a traditional safe Liberal ward, and was won in 2000 by Liberal candidate Jane Prentice.

Prentice was re-elected in 2004 and 2008, building her margin up to 18.9% in 2004 and 21% in 2008.

In 2010, Prentice resigned to run for the federal seat of Ryan, which she won. She has since been re-elected in 2013 and now serves as an Assistant Minister in the Turnbull government.

The 2010 by-election was won by LNP candidate Julian Simmonds. In 2012, he was re-elected with a 21.9% margin over the Greens, who outpolled Labor. Simmonds challenged Jane Prentice for the federal seat of Ryan prior to the 2019 federal election, and thus resigned from Walter Taylor to run successfully at the federal election.

Simmonds was succeeded in Walter Taylor in 2019 by James Mackay, appointed by the LNP to the casual vacancy.

Candidates

Assessment
Walter Taylor is a safe LNP ward, and is unlikely to be a top target for the Greens who have a much better chance in neighbouring Paddington, but the replacement of the sitting member might make the LNP a bit vulnerable.

2016 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Julian Simmonds Liberal National 14,19060.5-2.959.7
Chris Turnbull Greens 5,35422.8+2.622.9
Talbot Speechley Labor 3,92016.7+0.317.4
Informal4611.9

2016 council two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Julian Simmonds Liberal National 14,57466.5-5.465.9
Chris Turnbull Greens 7,33633.5+5.434.1
Exhausted1,5546.6

2016 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 14,17360.0-6.159.3
Rod Harding Labor 4,91720.8+5.521.2
Ben Pennings Greens 3,78716.0-1.016.3
Jeffrey HodgesIndependent3491.5+1.51.5
Jim EldridgeIndependent1610.7+0.70.7
Karel BoelePeople Decide1430.6+0.60.6
Jarrod WirthIndependent860.4+0.40.4
Informal3861.6

2016 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 14,70567.6-8.267.0
Rod Harding Labor 7,06232.4+8.233.0
Exhausted1,8497.8

Booth breakdown


Booths in Walter Taylor have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

The LNP won a sizeable majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote against the Greens in all three areas, ranging from 61.6% in the east to 73.9% in the west. A similar pattern is seen in the mayoral two-party-preferred vote (against Labor).

Labor came third with a vote ranging from 15% in the west to 19% in the east.

Voter groupALP prim councilLNP 2CP councilLNP 2PP mayoralTotal votes% of votes
East18.661.663.07,58131.6
Central16.865.065.85,42422.6
West15.373.972.63,03212.6
Other votes16.966.970.25,46122.7
Pre-poll19.068.667.82,52110.5

Election results in Walter Taylor at the 2016 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs Greens) for council, two-party-preferred votes for lord mayor, and council primary votes for the Greens and Labor.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Any expected effect by that state member for 90% of this ward being a Green?

    QLD LNP seems to poll way better at council level and equally awfully at state level all across BCC, and of course there OPV helping them more than CPV usually, but theoretically there are the voters here for the Greens to make gains.

  2. Greens MP at State level now and replacement Councillor (albeit with a year under his belt).

    I’d expect anything between a 3-10% swing on 2CP. Still a long way from being marginal though!

  3. The way we are going Brisbane will be on water and electricity restrictions. I can’t see too many GREEN’s enjoying walking down 10 flights of stairs and then ascending with a Kero Tin balanced on their head. Turn off the electricity for a few hours in this heat and Green will turn pro coal in half an hour.
    The Greens best hope in State Election is South Brisbane. Jackie Trad is in danger.
    To win she will need LNP preferences however at the moment she is doing everything in her power to ensure LNP put her last. Greens might get her elected in South Brisbane but her support for them will ensure that Palasczuk is opposition leader. ALP know this and are doing best to silence her.

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