Pullenvale – Brisbane 2020

Kate Richards has been disendorsed by the LNP and won’t be their candidate for Pullenvale.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/11785878

Well that’s a spanner in the works. One presumes that whoever the endorsed LNP candidate ends up being would still start as the favourite, but if Kate Richards continues professing innocence and were to run as an independent (and preferences LNP last out of spite?) things could happen…

Will the CCC be able to decide an outcome before election day?

CCC and judicial system seem to have an attitude of the longer a matter takes the more we will trust the final result.
Courier Mail revealed yesterday that a Councillor or Mayor who is suspended because of an unfinished corruption charge can stand for office again and if elected would immediately be suspended till court decision.
Once charged the
Trial should be finalised in a week unless the accused seeks an extension.
Court cases take far too long too finalise.
It is very clear that Local Government needs to be more rigidly regulated by Local Government Department.
Once a person has worked in Real Estate they should forfeit right to be employed or elected to any Local Council and once elected to Council absolutely no development should be approved if Councillor or ex councillor has any interest in development
We need complete isolation of Real Estate, Development and Local Government.

Bennee, Libs might be in trouble if it was Compulsory preferential, but even the ALP->Green flows are too leaky for anything to change here.

Moggill in the state election is more winnable for Greens or Labor

Moggil would be totally unwinnable for Greens if their taxation policies are hi-lighted. The electorate is relatively wealthy. Their Petrol prices are about 30c+ per Litre above rest of Brisbane and they do not seem to notice.

They are Greenish socially but will turn neo-liberal libertarian if there is a risk of not being able to pay their mortgage. There has been an refugee activist on Moggil Rd protesting over last month but I doubt if electorate has a single refugee migrant. Plenty of Indians and Chinese but no factory workers let alone factorys.

John
ALP> Greens and Greens> ALP preference flows are tight with little leakage. Greens Preferences are a bit undisciplined but they go tightly Black to grey rather than Black to white.
Where the lack of discipline becomes evident is where there is a sitting candidate who is seen by rest of community as being less than a pillar of community standards.
In negotiating with Greens major parties would be silly not to argue that Greens have very little to negotiate with. DirectingGreen Preferences would be like herding cats.

I was talking about exhausting votes – looks like nearly half the ALP votes exhausted last time.

Given the animosity between QLD Greens amd Labor, and Labor’s closeness with the fossil fuel industry, plus their surprise decision to back down on Compulsory Preferential, I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor do “just vote 1” cards in Greens target seats, then run an “only Labor can beat the LNP here” campaign.

John
Valid point but I I do not think Green Voters will not preference at least as far all is ALP is concerned.

Greens have been bottom of my ballot except in the one case where an ex uniformed NAZI stood.

I am sure that Jhomsthon Sti

Misspelling of Sri was accidental.

John realistically only ALP can beat Liberals. Only other scenario that has the slightest possibility is an ALP -Grens coalition. Big problem with Queensland Local Government elections is that we could end up with an ALP Mayor with Libs holding a majority of Wards or vice versa.
ALP are currently not campaigning effectively.

Moggil Road now has a Liberal Flashing Neon sign outside Federal MP’s office . Sign alternates between Council candidate for Pullenvale Kate Richards and State candidate for Moggil. Libs must be more worried than I previously said was case.I think both of them however are very safe seats.
Overall Deb Frecklington is running a very negative
campaign for State election which is not cutting to to Mr and Mrs Jones voters who switch from ALP to Libs and vice versa. She is rousing the party faithful but not the undecided.

So is Kate Richards disendorsed or not?
She’s currently not listed on the LNP website: https://www.lnp.org.au/our-team/brisbane-city-council/

Kate has been disendorsed.

I am not sure if Kate Richards is endorsed or not but she is on a LNP flashing sign.
When disendorsing a candidate no party has a planned process to deal with all the matters that has to be done.

”LNP refers Brisbane councillor to corruption watchdog but Kate Richards says party faction vilifying her” Potentially disendorsed due to an incident last month, If so she should win anyway with a significantly reduced margin, I don’t see Labor winning this but the Greens could have outside chance, Possibly decided under 10% Lib vs Green, If the Liberals decide to put up a new candidate (Depending when the filing deadline is) They could put up former member for Ryan, Jane Prentice since this ward covers most of Ryan.

Daniel: this ward is actually entirely contained within Ryan.
Jane was previously a councillor actually, in Walter Taylor ward. I doubt she would now stand for Pullenvale.

This is deep blue LNP territory, whoever the LNP end up putting up here should get in fairly easily.

Well that’s me told – just one day later and here’s an article saying Jane is going for preselection!

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/ousted-lnp-mp-jane-prentice-in-running-to-replace-brisbane-councillor-20200114-p53rcg.html

Ben – this also confirms Kate Richards is disendorsed, though it’s still unclear whether she’ll run again.

Yep updated. I did see people’s posts but to be honest I haven’t really been in a position to make any updates until now.

Interestingly Kate Richards has been disendorsed but the reasons for her referral to CCC are not public.
Have Libs removed her from flashing sign on Moggil Road?
Clearly political parties need to insert some managerialism into their internal structure to eliminate paying to advertise a candidate they have disendorsed. I doubt if this problem is confined to Liberal Party. I once handed out a How to Vote authorised by someone who had defected and was standing for another party. Electoral Commission advised that endorsement if legitimate could not be revoked merely for changing parties.

Well, the LNP preselection is over, and the winner was #GregFromMarketing. So that will be two female LNP incumbents dumped and replaced by men in the western suburbs in the last two years.

Before anyone can make an assumption that the reason Kate Richards was disendorsed because of her gender we need details of CCC complaint.This will come in time. CCC is understandably fed up with political activists using complaints process as a precursor to electoral endorsement/ disendorsement.

I for one have faith in CCC processing of complaints but recognise that the mere existence of a complaint is now just a part of Party pre-selection process.

Today’s The Australian has details of the internal shenanigans of West Brisbane Liberal Party endorsement . process. In fact it looks like it is as honest as the ALP’s was during the 195’s split. Apparently no actual bashing’s yet.

Wow, Slam Dunk, Jane Prentice has failed yet again to gain pre-selection. I think the argument of her age is nonsense because she is only 66 and she is often regarded as a modern moderate liberal. The same people that ousted Turnbull (The Dutton Camp) ousted Jane in Ryan and now they didn’t want her for this ward. Well at least she knows how to WIN elections because she got a swing to her every single 3 election she won. Even in 2016 against the trend. While Pullenvale will likely stay LNP it will be on a significantly reduced margin. I must note Ryan almost became a marginal seat against the trend likely due to her dumping, Had Labour won the election, Ryan would have been very close (Its more marginal than a dozen of once marginal QLD seats!) . I guess we will never know but Jane likely would have increased her margin in Ryan last election. Nevertheless despite her failure here she could try to get the Maiwar preselection. Because Scott Emmerson has ruled himself out running and she is certainly the best shot of winning the seat back of the Greens, Maiwar is marginal whether its Greens vs LNP or Lab vs LNP and it is important to get cross-over votes and Jane can do just that. a conservative would be unlikely to do well in these kind of regions. Jane shouldn’t give up and should consider Maiwar because i do not think Labour nor Liberal want Maiwar to turn into a safe Greens seat because the Greens typically hold onto their seats Indefinitely unlike Independents.

Driving down Moggil Road today and whole sign has dissapeared.
Comes to something where it is easier to remove sign than change the software.

Corflute for Julian Simonds for Ryan up in Moggil Road. This is 2 1/2 years before election. Surely this is a bit early in such a safe seat as Ryan.

A large Bill board up on Bruce Highway for Longman LNP Terry Young along with Scott Morrison.

Are Libs running scared???

Why is it that for the life of me I cannot work out who is the actual council candidate for the Pullenvale ward in the upcoming March 28th election..?? I have the LNP and Greens and maybe Kate as independent but Labour seems to be MIA….. can someone please enlighten me..
Thanks
Moggill resident

It would take a highly committed ALP supporter to run in Pullenvale because they have not a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

I have done a search for ALP candidate and only ALP involvement in Pullenvale seems to be discussion about Liberal candidate selection procedure and Lord Mayor Quirks personal involvement in This procedure.

Labor would have to, just because of the mayoral vote. Same reason they run candidates in crazy safe Nat seats in WA / Vic / NSW – it’s more campaigning for the upper house. Even the 20-25% they could get in Pullenvale counts for 1% across Brisbane council, so if they don’t run a candidate and half their mayoral vote goes missing, that’s 0.5% off their vote. Considering they’re trying to overturn a 9.5% margin, every little bit helps.

Bird of Paradox
Completely agree. In my view every political party should run in every seat every election. Changes to Electoral Act jacking up deposit and rewarding 4% Plus votes have resulted in some parties losing track of why they exist. In 1950’s to 1970’s DLP ran in most seats, Today it is touch a FF go whether candidate for a minor party stands. Solution drop deposit for multiple nominations.

Driving into Pullenvale
along Moggil Rd some sign of campaigning by Greens but Liberal Flashing sign now flashing Walter Taylor candidate. Greens had two roadside stalls one at entry to Mogggil Rd from Western Freeway and other in Kenmore both promoting Pullenvale candidate. I very much doubt if they have a hope in hades of winning but that is not impression campaigning is giving. No election pamphlets yet in Bellbowrie letterboxes.

Well well well, Kate Richards confirmed she’s running.

Who on earth is making the final 2?and how will preferences follow? Potential for conservative vote splitting in OPV?

Many potential outcomes now (still most likely the LNP candidate wins, but closer).

This is turning into a very interesting seat.

Speaking to a couple from seat today they had as little idea of what was going on as the rest of us.

It is believed that Libs have a candidate but Labor still candidate less.

I doubt if sitting member has much of a personal vote So my prediction is Final two being Libs and Richards with both ALP and GreenPreferences being distributed. My prediction no less than 20% and no more than 30% for Libs. ALP and Greens with ALP on less than 20%.

My super conservative prediction is Kate to take 8%, Labor to take 18%, Greens to take 27% and Liberals 47% primary.

Kate’s preferences to 50% exhaust and go even spread around taking it to Labor 19.3%, Greens 27.3% LNP 48.3%

Labor to then be eliminated with 50% exhaustion rate and 80% going to Greens the rest LNP taking it to: Greens 36% and LNP 64%

In the if it goes all wild card on us then change the primary for to Kate 12%, Labor 17%, Greens 33% and the remaining primary 38% LNP with the same likely preference directions flowing from there.

This could a situation where Labor and Greens strongly need to consider preferencing Richards over each other. She’s the only one with even a snowball’s chance of beating the LNP on 2CP, but she needs to get there first!

She’ll need to peel about 20 points off the LNP to manage it.

The LNP scoreline went down 14 points when Margaret de Wit retired, which is a reasonable proxy for personal vote. But de Wit had built that up over many years.
Then again, Nicole Johnston took 20 points off the LNP back in 2012. (She also took 20 points off Labor and the Greens.) So that’s the model.

Zephyr
Sound reasoning. Diasagree over flow of Kate Richards preference flow.
Most of Kate’s preferences will return. To LNP unless she does a very good campaign. Manning booths takes a lot of planning and without a substantial group of workers it is difficult to even work out how to start. If she has workers and a registered HOw UFO vote she may be able to control 50% of Her preferences but other 50 % will return toLNP where they originally came from.

“Most of Kate’s preferences will return.”

Counterpoint, the “just vote one” campaign the LNP have been doing in local and state elections in Brisbane for the last 20 years, including right now in all 25 other BCC wards…