Tennyson – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – IND 5.8% vs LNP
Mayoral margin – LNP 18.4%

Incumbent councillor
Nicole Johnston, since 2008.

Geography
South-western Brisbane. Tennyson covers suburbs on the south side of the Brisbane River to the south-west of the city centre, including Fairfield, Oxley, Yeronga, Yeerongpilly, Chelmer, Graceville, Sherwood and Corinda.

Map of Tennyson's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Tennyson’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Tennyson shifted slightly west, losing parts of Annerley to Coorparoo and gaining parts of Oxley and Corinda from Jamberoo. Tennyson also lost industrial areas to Moorooka.

History
Tennyson was created in 2008 when the Labor-held Dutton Park ward was split between Tennyson and The Gabba. Tennyson was a notional Liberal ward with a 2.6% margin, and the sitting Labor councillor chose to contest The Gabba.

Tennyson was won by Liberal candidate Nicole Johnston with a 10.7% swing, giving her a 13.3% margin.

Nicole Johnston fell out with her Liberal National colleagues, leaving the party in 2010. She was re-elected as an independent in 2012 – the first independent to win a seat on Brisbane City Council in over sixty years.

Candidates

Assessment
Tennyson is difficult to predict. Johnston proved herself popular in 2012, and if the LNP struggles to keep their vote at the 2012 high, she could widen the gap against the LNP, but the swing to lose isn’t that big, and it will always be hard for an independent to hold her seat on the council.

2012 council result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Nicole Johnston Independent 8,577 42.1 +42.1 40.8
Matt Brodie Liberal National 7,216 35.4 -21.3 37.0
Shane Mckenna Labor 2,488 12.2 -16.2 12.4
Caron Menashe Greens 2,093 10.3 -4.6 9.8
Informal 359 1.7

2012 council two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Nicole Johnston Independent 10,194 57.3 55.8
Matt Brodie Liberal National 7,602 42.7 44.2
Exhausted 2,046

2012 mayoral result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 11,759 57.9 -2.6 59.1
Ray Smith Labor 4,595 22.6 -2.1 22.2
Andrew Bartlett Greens 3,411 16.8 +4.6 16.2
Rory Killen Independent 313 1.5 +1.5 1.4
Chris Carson Independent 234 1.2 +1.2 1.1
Informal 414 2.0

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,066 67.2 -1.1 68.4
Ray Smith Labor 5,886 32.8 +1.1 31.6
Exhausted 2,360
Polling places in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. East in green, South-West in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. East in green, South-West in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Tennyson have been split into three parts: east, south-west and west.

Independent councillor Nicole Johnston’s primary vote ranged from 41.9% in the south-west (including two booths where she wasn’t on the ballot) to 47.7% in the west.

The LNP’s mayoral two-party-preferred vote ranged from 64% in the east to 75.7% in the west.

Voter group IND council LNP council LNP mayoral 2PP Total votes % of votes
East 43.3 33.8 64.3 7,163 36.1
South-West 41.9 37.5 69.8 4,268 21.5
West 47.7 38.7 75.7 3,601 18.1
Other votes 31.0 40.2 67.5 4,830 24.3
Primary votes for independent councillor Nicole Johnston in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Primary votes for independent councillor Nicole Johnston in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for mayor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Labor primary votes for councillor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Labor primary votes for councillor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in Tennyson at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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