Coorparoo – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – LNP 13.6%
Mayoral margin – LNP 18.1%

Incumbent councillor
Ian McKenzie, councillor for Holland Park since 2008.

Geography
Inner south-eastern Brisbane. Coorparoo covers the suburbs of Coorparoo, Greenslopes and Carina Heights, immediately to the south-east of South Brisbane.

Map of Coorparoo's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Coorparoo’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Coorparoo is a new ward, with a large proportion of the ward coming from Holland Park, which has shifted to the south. Holland Park councillor Ian McKenzie is planning to contest Coorparoo. For these reasons I am treating Coorparoo as the successor to the old Holland Park.

These changes increased the LNP council margin from 10.1% to 13.6%, and the mayoral margin from 16.2% to 18.1%.

History – Holland Park
Holland Park was won in 1997 by Labor candidate Kerry Rea. Rea had previously held Ekibin ward from 1991 to 1994. She held Holland Park until she resigned in 2007 and ran for the federal seat of Bonner which she won. Rea held Bonner for one term before losing in 2010.

After Rea’s resignation, the LNP’s Ian McKenzie won Holland Park with an 8.6% swing. McKenzie was re-elected in 2012 with a further 5.5% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Coorparoo is the fifth-most marginal LNP ward. If there is a uniform swing, the LNP losing Coorparoo would leave them without a council majority. A 13.6% swing will be difficult to overcome, but Labor will harbour some hopes to win if the election goes well.

2012 council result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ian Mckenzie Liberal National 11,531 55.0 +5.5 58.1
Joe Kelly Labor 6,620 31.6 -5.1 30.1
Paul Lambert Greens 2,816 13.4 -0.4 9.8
Others 2.0
Informal 419 2.0

2012 council two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ian Mckenzie Liberal National 11,852 61.1 +5.5 63.6
Joe Kelly Labor 7,558 38.9 -5.5 36.4
Exhausted 1,372

2012 mayoral result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,395 59.1 +0.1 61.1
Ray Smith Labor 5,559 26.5 -0.5 25.1
Andrew Bartlett Greens 2,584 12.3 +0.9 11.6
Rory Killen Independent 243 1.2 +1.2 1.3
Chris Carson Independent 178 0.9 +0.9 0.9
Informal 418 2.0

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 12,701 66.2 -0.8 68.1
Ray Smith Labor 6,472 33.8 +0.8 31.9
Exhausted 1,786
Polling places in Coorparoo at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Coorparoo at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Coorparoo have been split into three parts: central, east and west.

The Liberal National Party won a massive 72% of the two-party-preferred vote in the east, which was mostly contained in Chandler ward, with a smaller 59% majority in the centre (previously contained in Holland Park and a small part of the Gabba) and only 52% in the west (contained in Tennyson and Holland Park).

The Greens did not run in Chandler ward in 2012, and thus had a very small vote in that area. They polled over 13% in the centre and 18% in the west.

Voter group GRN council primary LNP council 2PP Total votes % of votes
Central 13.4 59.3 6,726 30.5
East 1.3 71.6 5,985 27.1
West 18.0 52.0 3,405 15.4
Other votes 9.5 66.0 5,957 27.0
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Coorparoo at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Coorparoo at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in Coorparoo at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in Coorparoo at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

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