Wright – Australia 2019

LNP 9.6%

Incumbent MP
Scott Buchholz, since 2010.

Geography
Wright covers rural parts of South-East Queensland. Wright covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast hinterland, rural parts of the City of Logan, and the entirety of Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim council areas. Wright covers the towns of Boonah, Beaudesert, Gatton and Laidley, and comes close to the major centres of Logan, Gold Coast, Ipswich and Toowoomba.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Wright was created in the 2010 election, out of parts of the seats of Forde and Blair. Both seats were Labor seats in 2007, but Wright was created as a notional Liberal National seat, and neither sitting Labor MP ran in Wright.

Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.

Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.

Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.

Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election.

In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.

Blair was created for the 1998 election, and took over Ipswich from the seat of Oxley, which at the time was held by One Nation founder Pauline Hanson. Hanson ran for Blair, topping the poll on primary votes. The ALP polled second, with Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson third. Thompson gained Nationals preferences, then defeated Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson won by more comfortable margins in 2001 (58.5%) and 2004 (61.2%). The redistribution cut Thompson’s margin by 5.5% before the 2007 election. A 10% swing saw the ALP’s Shayne Neumann won the seat on a second attempt.

In 2010, Wright was created with a 53.8% majority for the LNP. The LNP’s Scott Buchholz won the seat with a 6% swing, and was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Wright is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Scott Buchholz Liberal National 36,93541.8-6.0
Allistair Smith Labor 20,11022.8+1.4
Rod SmithOne Nation18,46120.9+20.9
Pietro Agnoletto Greens 6,7687.7+2.3
Barry AustinFamily First3,1633.6+1.0
Mark M StoneLiberal Democrats1,9792.2+2.2
John CoxMature Australia9021.0+1.0
Informal3,9804.3

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Scott Buchholz Liberal National 52,65159.6-2.2
Allistair Smith Labor 35,66740.4+2.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Wright covers parts of four local government areas, and polling places have been divided into these four areas.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.6% in Logan to 63.9% on the Gold Coast.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 11% on the Gold Coast to 35.6% in the Lockyer Valley.

Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Scenic Rim17.662.616,75019.0
Lockyer Valley35.658.915,67017.7
Logan19.151.614,37616.3
Gold Coast11.163.98,6399.8
Other votes20.861.417,82020.2
Pre-poll16.860.215,06317.1

Election results in Wright at the 2016 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.