Sturt – Australia 2019

LIB 5.4%

Incumbent MP
Christopher Pyne, since 1993.

Sturt lies in the eastern suburbs of Adelaide. The southern part of the seat covers most of Burnside LGA, while Campbelltown and Norwood Payneham and St Peters LGAs cover the centre of the seat, and parts of the Port Adelaide Enfield and Tea Tree Gully LGAs cover the north of the seat. Sturt stretches north to Grand Junction Road, and key suburbs include Glen Osmond, Burnside, Magill, Felixstow, Campbelltown, Klemzig, Gilles Plains, Rostrevor, Newton, Norwood, Stepney, Paradise, Athelstone and Highbury.

Sturt expanded slightly to both the east and west, taking in Woodforde from Mayo and taking in Dulwich, Hackney, Joslin, Maylands, Norwood, St Peters and Stepney from Adelaide.

Sturt was created for the 1949 election, and has almost always been held by the Liberal Party. Indeed, except for two terms when it was held by the ALP, the seat was held by the same family from its creation until Pyne was elected in 1993.

The seat was first won by Keith Wilson in 1949. He lost the seat in 1954 to Norman Makin. Makin had served in the House of Representatives from 1919 to 1946, during which time he served as Speaker of the House of Representatives and a Minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, before becoming Ambassador to the United States.

Makin abandoned the seat in 1955 for the safer Bonython, and Wilson returned to the seat. Wilson retired in 1966 and was succeeded by his son Ian. Ian served as a junior minister in the last term of the Fraser government before going to the backbench after the election of the Hawke government.

Wilson was challenged for preselection in 1993 by 25-year-old Christopher Pyne. Pyne has been re-elected eight times. He was appointed to the outer ministry in the last months of the Howard government in 2007, and has served in a senior frontbench role since the 2007 election, including as a cabinet minister since 2013.

No information.

Sturt will likely stay in Liberal hands but it has been more marginal than some would expect considering its history.

2016 result

Christopher Pyne Liberal 41,35144.4-10.044.4
Matt Loader Labor 20,65322.2-6.723.3
Matthew WrightNick Xenophon Team19,68421.2+21.219.9
Rebecca Galdies Greens 6,5757.1-2.77.6
Craig BowyerFamily First2,9123.1-0.82.9
Geoff RussellAnimal Justice1,2201.3+1.31.3
Neil AitchisonIndependent6370.7+0.70.6

2016 two-party-preferred result

Matt Loader Labor 41,03444.1+4.244.6
Christopher Pyne Liberal 51,99855.9-4.255.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with a narrow 50.6% majority in the centre and a large 60.8% majority in the south. Labor won 52% in the north.

The Nick Xenophon Team came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.8% in the south to 23% in the north.

Voter groupNXT prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Other votes21.054.318,26916.7

Election results in Sturt at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Nick Xenophon Team primary votes.

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  1. Pyne might have lost this in 2016 if the Greens preferenced NXT over Labor (instead of the other way around), and Labor preferenced NXT over Libs instead of running open tickets. A rare case where tactical voting could have made the difference.

    However this incarnation of the seat I don’t see Centre Alliance being a factor. It will be a conventional Liberal vs Labor seat. Labor has a chance but I think Pyne will hold on like he usually does unless Marshall’s honeymoon ends at the wrong time.

  2. Hard to see Pyne losing this despite recent events even if the Labor/Greens/NXT collective outnumbers him again. In fact if NXT are on the wane he may get a swing back his way even with Labor improving their primary.

  3. Narrow Liberal hold 51-49, Recent polling in SA shows Labor leading 58-42, Although that polling should make this seat go Labor, even Gray will likely fall (Prob not to Labor but NXT/CA) It is too early and the polling is likely to narrow a little by election day, Pyne’s High profile and him just being a Popular local member will narrowly put him over, If Labor do gain this, The Labor will likely crack 100 seats


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