Stirling – Australia 2019

LIB 6.1%

Incumbent MP
Michael Keenan, since 2004.

Geography
Northern suburbs of Perth. The seat covers the suburbs of Balcatta, Balga, Carine, Karrinyup, Mirrabook, Nollamara, Stirling, Scarborough, Trigg and North Beach.

History
Stirling was first created for the 1955 election, and has always been a marginal electorate, with every member for the seat being defeated, with no-one serving in the seat for more than 11 years. Despite this seat being a marginal seat for half a century, the seat has often been held by Opposition members.

The seat was first won by Harry Webb of the ALP in 1955, when he moved from the nearby seat of Swan. Webb was defeated by Liberal Doug Cash in 1958, before winning it back in 1961. Ian Viner (LIB) won the seat in 1972, against the flow as Gough Whitlam won office. Viner held the seat for eleven years, serving as a minister in the Fraser government, as a junior minister from 1975 until 1980, when he joined the Cabinet.

Viner was defeated in 1983 by Labor’s Ron Edwards, who was defeated in 1993 by radio presenter Eoin Cameron of the Liberal Party. Cameron lost to Labor’s Jann McFarlane in 1998. Like Cameron before her, McFarlane held the seat for two terms before losing in 2004 to Liberal candidate Michael Keenan.

Keenan was re-elected in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • Melita Markey (Labor)

Assessment
Stirling would be a stretch goal for Labor if the election goes well.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael Keenan Liberal 40,99149.5-1.3
Robert Pearson Labor 26,66932.2+2.4
Tom Webster Greens 9,67911.7+0.8
Kim MubarakIndependent2,1722.6+1.6
Kevin HostAustralian Christians2,0192.4+0.3
Alison L RoweRise Up Australia1,3611.6+1.1
Informal3,5874.1

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael Keenan Liberal 46,52056.1-2.9
Robert Pearson Labor 36,37143.9+2.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: east, west and central.

The ALP won a slim 50.1% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre. The Liberal Party won a small 52.9% majority in the east, and a much larger 68% majority in the west.

The Greens vote ranged from 10.6% to 12.8% in the west.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East11.252.922,41827.0
Central10.649.921,17225.5
West12.868.114,35417.3
Other votes13.056.214,58217.6
Pre-poll11.559.010,36512.5

Election results in Stirling at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.