Solomon – Australia 2019

ALP 6.1%

Incumbent MP
Luke Gosling, since 2016.

Geography
Solomon covers the Darwin metropolitan area, as well as the nearby city of Palmerston.

Redistribution
Solomon retracted slightly, losing an area at the eastern edge of Darwin to Lingiari. This change increased the ALP margin from 6% to 6.1%.

History
The Northern Territory first elected a Member of the House of Representatives in 1922, but this person was only given full voting rights in 1968.

The seat was held by the Country Party and then the Country Liberal Party from then until 1983

Labor and then the CLP each held the seat for one term from 1983 to 1987, before Warren Snowdon won the seat for the ALP in 1987.

Snowdon lost the seat for one term in 1996 before being returned for one more term in 1998.

The 2000 redistribution saw the Northern Territory gain a second seat for the first time, and the seats of Solomon, covering Darwin and Palmerston, and Lingiari, covering the rest of the territory, were created.

In 2001, Country Liberal candidate Dave Tollner won the seat by only 88 votes. In 2004, he increased his margin to 2.8%. The 2007 election saw Tollner lose his seat to the ALP’s Damian Hale, by a slim 0.3% margin.

In 2010, Hale lost his seat to Palmerston alderman Natasha Griggs, running for the Country Liberal Party. In 2013, Griggs won a second term, despite a 0.35% swing back to Labor.

Griggs lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Luke Gosling.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Solomon is still reasonably marginal and could return to the CLP if there was a large swing to the Coalition.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Luke Gosling Labor 22,30840.9+5.440.9
Natasha GriggsCountry Liberal18,80434.4-10.234.4
Todd Williams Greens 5,55310.2+2.210.3
Mark GarnerIndependent1,6443.0+3.03.0
Marty ReinholdShooters, Fishers and Farmers1,5232.8+2.82.7
Robert DawesLiberal Democrats1,2752.3+2.32.3
Lance LawrenceMarijuana (HEMP) Party1,1432.1+2.12.1
Silvija MajeticRise Up Australia9851.8+0.81.8
John KearneyAustralia First7981.5+1.51.4
Nevin CartwrightOnline Direct Democracy3690.7+0.70.7
Brigid McculloughCitizens Electoral Council1830.3-0.10.3
Informal4,0807.0

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Luke Gosling Labor 30,56656.0+7.456.2
Natasha Griggs Country Liberal 24,01944.0-7.444.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three clear parts. The town of Palmerston stands apart from the City of Darwin. Within Darwin, there is a clear divide between the south and the north of Darwin.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.2% in South Darwin to 62.1% in North Darwin.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.9% in Palmerston to 11.4% in North Darwin.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North Darwin11.462.116,80032.2
Palmerston6.957.98,57116.4
South Darwin11.051.28,22115.7
Other votes11.250.04,5398.7
Pre-poll10.252.914,09327.0

Election results in Solomon at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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10 COMMENTS

  1. This came up in the Braddon thread as a seat Liberals could win back off Labor. Not really seeing it; the swing in 2016 was overinflated by Griggs and Giles but Gosling is due for a sophomore surge and I don’t see Gunner being much of a drag. I would think a Labor retain with any decent effort.

  2. “Over Inflated” is a very mild way of putting it. Giles stunk to high-heaven. There will be a correction, the only question is how much. This seat is usually slightly Liberal leaning: went CLP in 2001 and 2004 with the ALP only just getting across the line in 2007, before reverting to CLP again in 2010. If Turnbull wins, incumbency will be the only thing that saves the ALP here.

  3. Agree with Peterjk23, there will be a correction back to the CLP, but only in the vicinity of between 3-4% is my guess.

    With the nationwide swing expected to put Labor into office, I struggle to see Gosling losing Solomon this time round.

  4. There’s an interesting geographic disparity in the 2016 swings. Every Palmerston booth, including the pre-poll, had double digit swings to Labor. Whilst every Darwin booth had single digit swings to Labor.

    Any idea why this would be?

  5. The boats are a really big thing in the NT. Probably there is some out of proportion cost issue, like it is somewhat in WA.

    Apparently Griggs went hard in 2010, 2013, but there was no force in it, in 2016. The issue in one for labor to lose, & perhaps exacerbated in Solomon

  6. Any idea why this would be?

    A lot of Defense Housing Authority property in Palmerston and environs, so I suspect that that’s where you’ll find sizable proportion of the defense sensitive vote

  7. Winediamond,

    I think pay scales would be more their priority, I don’t think many beyond inner city liberals (not in the political party sense) care about the welfare of illegal immigrants illegally entering Australia.

  8. Sandbelter
    Hey !!. I am mean’t to be the cynic !!. But seriously we cannot underestimate the psych impact of dating with dead bodies.

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